Noelemac

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

@pedma7 This might be a stretch, but I’d love to hear about your process from research to production — how you go from idea → validation → prod.

Even a short post or article would be incredible if you ever feel like sharing.

[cephalopodshop @macrocephalopod]

Research discipline is when a new feature improves metrics, improves backtest performance, is statically significant in walk forward tests, but you refuse to add it to the model because the vibes are off.

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

$ACN looking interesting 👀 Earnings growing, margins solid, balance sheet strong Stock’s getting cheaper, and the setup looks nice — potential upside feels like 80% if things stay on track.

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

@MartinShkreli Has anyone looked at $MPWR? It isn't looking good

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

@sdav1986 RSA will take this one home🇿🇦

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

@PrometheusCHT The power of Pap will win this one 🇿🇦

[otw2 @imotw2]

a thread on different kinds of edges, why the disappear, and why they sometimes don’t

1/n

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Markets are always an evolving meta. Back in 2015, prop desks, allocators, and RIAs were heavily focused on quant based investing. That was the dominant narrative. If you were not doing something systematic, it was difficult to get people’s attention. By 2019, the focus had shifted further toward machine learning.

Today, we are seeing a rotation back into discretionary trading. Allocators are showing more openness to backing discretionary managers again, some of the large pods are actively seeking discretionary risk takers and there is a noticeable shift in sentiment across the space.

It is hard to say how long this trend will last, but it is refreshing to see the industry placing greater emphasis on results rather than the specific path used to achieve them.

[Patrick Saner @patrick_saner]

The debate of investors and policymakers is whether markets have gone too far in pricing AI optimism and who is going to "win" the AI race.

I read two important new papers this week which are very relevant in this context.

A few points below.

[david @sdav1986]

Credentialism is a disease in pretty much every field these days. „You didn’t work at X or Y, therefore I assume you’re mid and I am better“. This is very corrosive.

If your first move is to dismiss someone’s insight based on their resume, you’re not evaluating ideas, you’re signaling insecurity.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

In trading, the word “passion” is often thrown around far too loosely.

I believe much of the underperformance we see among hedge fund managers comes from the naturally dilutive nature of the industry. Too many people step into this business not because they are deeply committed to the craft, but because they see it as a convenient path to wealth.

The real question is how many are genuinely consumed by the art of trading, and how many are simply going through the motions until the closing bell.
In my experience, there are two types of people in this field.

The first are the obsessives. These are the individuals whose minds never turn off. They are constantly testing new ideas, refining signals, and searching for alpha. They are always asking themselves questions like whether another data source could validate the NBBO prints, whether adjusting signal latency could reduce variance in a particular sleeve, or whether streamlining the TCA process could help identify alpha decay before it erodes returns. Their mind is always churning around idea generation and strategy optimization. They put in long nights and countless hours at the screen, not because they are forced to, but because the work itself drives them. Mondays feel no different than Fridays, and their energy is at its highest when they are fully immersed in the game, pushing themselves to perform at their peak.

The second type are those who cannot wait for the clock to hit 4 p.m. Their attention drifts toward golf outings, ski trips, or the next weekend escape. Strategy optimization is an afterthought, and Mondays are a chore to endure. The only reason they remain in the business is that it funds their lifestyle, and they are too far along to turn back.

Whether you are allocating to a hedge fund, backing a trader, or choosing a wealth manager, the principle remains the same: screen for obsession. This industry is unforgiving to the half-interested. Consistent results come from those who live and breathe the work, and anything less is unlikely to deliver the outcome you are looking for.

Of course there are some exceptions, but time eventually catches up when you don’t give the craft the attention it needs.

[oxbquant @oxbquant]

“To go wrong in one's own way is better than to go right in someone else’s” Dostoevsky

[illiquidity providooooor @skyquake_1]

A multistrat manager was looking at the returns of a trader who trades ZB treasury futures solo, who makes 600k-1m every year consistently.

The manager complimented the trader on the consistency of his trading and asked how long it takes a day.

The trader replied, “Only a little while.”

The manager then asked why he didn’t trade longer and make more money.

The trader said he had enough to support his family’s immediate needs.

The manager then asked, “But what do you do with the rest of your time?”

The trader said, “I sleep late, trade a little, play with my children, take siestas with my wife, Maria, and shitpost on twitter dot com each evening where I sip white monster and spread misinformation. I have a full and busy life.”

The manager scoffed.

“I have an MBA from Harvard and can help you,” he said. “You should spend more time trading and, with the proceeds, hire more traders. With the proceeds from the traders, you could onboard with a t1 prime broker, and eventually, you would have your own firm.”

“Instead of trading odd lots, you could leverage up and start doing size, eventually buy your own seat on the exchange and get taker rebates,” the manager continued.

“Of course, you would need to leave your home office and move to Los Angeles, and eventually New York City, where you will run your expanding enterprise,” the manager continued.

The trader asked, “But how long will this all take?”

To which the manager replied, “Oh, 15 to 20 years or so.”

“But what then?” asked the trader.

The manager laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right, you would announce an IPO, and sell your company stock to the public, and become very rich. You would make billions!”

“Billions – then what?” asked the trader.

The manager said, “Then you could retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you could sleep late, trader a little, play with your kids, take siestas with your wife, and shitpost on twitter dot com each evening where you sip white monster and spread misinformation.”

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

jane street tried to overthrow the sudanese government by supplying harvard educated rebels with ak-47s and you think mamdani is going to be able to raise taxes? lmao get real

[Willis Cap @willis_cap]

Yikes

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

Nice thread

[rbit @crypto_hades]

Post mortem of a (almost) 1 million dollar profit HFT strategy

In the summer of 2023 I started posting some monthly screenshots of this (at the time) 40+ sharpe ratio HFT strategy. I used to only publish % returns, but if you ever wondered what the $ amounts were, there you go:

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

“There are no permanent solutions in dynamic systems”

One of my favorite @naval quotes.

In trading, in fighting, and everything else.

[Mike Shell | Asymmetry® @MikeWShell]

Markets are trending higher, but risk is rising beneath the surface.

Left-tail hedges are still warranted, and getting cheap again.

A sharp downside could surprise a market lulled by the rally—buying downside protection could offer positive skew.

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

$SPX has bounced hard off April lows, but Q-CTA exposure remains negative — trend-following funds still on the sidelines.

Without CTA buy-in, this rally lacks systematic support and remains fragile.

[Noelemac @Volskeleton]

@jituanurag is this Umhlanga south Africa