Winter Mount Capital

Stock Watch: $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL $NVDA $SPCX $TSM $TSLA $PLTR $MELI $UNH $ISRG $BX $OWL $EL $LULU $COIN $HOOD $KLAR $SOFI $ILMN $CRSP $NBIS $NOW $CEG $VST $OKLO

[Whale Receipts @WhaleReceipts]

Michael Burry just disclosed his updated book, and it is one clean trade.

Short: $MU at $880, $NVDA, $SOXX at $506.

Long: $LULU at $118, $DKNG at $23.40, $FLUT, $ZTS at $76.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Nebius $NBIS just confirmed it will be reporting earnings before the markets open on Wednesday, August 12th

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tomorrow is going to be a historic day.

Market expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history.

Currently, interest rate futures imply a ~30% chance of a rate hike and a ~70% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

By comparison, nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 has entered decision day with ~99% consensus.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Warsh has effectively eliminated forward guidance, leaving markets with little direction ahead of the announcement.

That said, we continue to believe that the Fed will NOT hike interest rates tomorrow.

It's important to not forget that just months ago, President Trump said a "pre-condition" for his next Fed Chair was a willingness to cut rates.

And, the Iran War energy shock is likely to continue being labeled as a "temporary inflationary event" rather than a structural one, the labor market is weak, and Americans are already struggling with high interest rates.

We think the Fed PAUSE continues tomorrow.

[Oklo @oklo]

Scaling advanced nuclear requires coordination and investment across the full nuclear lifecycle: power, fuel, recycling, and long-term stewardship. @ENERGY’s Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campus effort is one of the first programs to bring the whole nuclear lifecycle together.

States including Utah, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Idaho are stepping up with serious proposals to host that full stack infrastructure and the jobs and innovation that come with it. That’s exactly the kind of forward‑looking, transparent competition we need to unlock real advancement in advanced nuclear.

Thank you to the Administration, DOE, and the states investing in our country’s nuclear renaissance. Getting this right means more than new projects on a map, it means building durable, integrated nuclear ecosystems that can deliver for Americans.

We’re excited to keep working with partners who are ready to invest in full‑stack nuclear deployment.

https://t.co/wu2pkZ69Nu

[Chart Wave Investing @ChartWaveInvest]

$OKLO
While price is continuing to selloff and now sitting under the 0.786 fib level, institutional ownership is hitting all-time highs

[Koyfin @KoyfinCharts]

The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year 👇

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

You aren’t bullish enough on hyperscalers.

Morgan Stanley says hyperscalers have 31% ROIC in their AI infrastructure businesses, and 25%-46% ROIC in their inference businesses.

Hyperscaler free cash flows will explode if this is true.

$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $ORCL $META

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

The World's Largest Asset Managers

[Brad Thomas @bradthomas]

I finally pulled the trigger on $MCD.

Most investors see burgers and fries. I see a high-margin franchising platform collecting rent and royalties across 45,000+ locations.

The restaurants sell hamburgers and $MCD owns the tollbooths.

Check out my latest article on @SeekingAlpha

[DG Capital @DGcapital_]

Baillie Gifford owns 10% of $DUOL

Know what else they got in early on?

Amazon (2003), Tesla (2013, under $8), Nvidia (2016).

While the market asked “when does this go bust,” they asked “what if this actually works.”

Now they’re asking the same question about $DUOL.

[Oklo @oklo]

Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte joined @CNBCMorningCall to discuss two major milestones for Oklo: startup authorization for our Groves Isotope Test Reactor and our founding membership in Prometheus.

Yesterday’s @ENERGY authorization clears the way to load fuel and bring the fastest privately built reactor of its kind to first criticality. This week, Oklo also joined Prometheus, a DOE-supported initiative led by @INL to unleash AI across the nuclear lifecycle.

Both of these milestones reflect the momentum behind a new era of nuclear development and the opportunity to use AI to help deliver clean, reliable power more quickly. 

Watch:
https://t.co/0I2QShvqaI

[SandemanStocks @Sandeman52]

$NBIS
Intel crushed. Capex higher. Will get more info on the call.

[Winter Mount Capital @WinterMountCap]

Under $305, looks like room to $250 and below.

[Winter Mount Capital @WinterMountCap]

$TSLA $SPCX both seem to have more downside than upside until the end of year.

Let’s face facts -

1. SpaceX still has a share lockup through the end of the year, with insiders likely to exit when able to do so.

Below IPO price and dropping, seems like buyers are waiting for lower .

2. Tesla will not realize Cybercab or Optimus profits for a minimum of 6 to 24 months.

Energy contracts and accelerating Tesla sales is bullish for core/legacy business.

#investing #StockPicks #TechInvesting

[Winter Mount Capital @WinterMountCap]

Crucial level at $305 held today. Room for recovery to $350 - $370 range.

Next would be 382->400->420+

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Tesla revenues hit a record $28 billion in Q2, rising 26% over the last year. That was the highest revenue growth since Q2 2023. Net Income came in below expectations at $1.1 billion, a 5% decline from a year ago. Operating margins fell to 1.4% from 4.1% a year ago. Free cash flow turned negative (-$1.1 billion) due to a spike in capital expenditures (up 142% YoY). $TSLA

[Esther & Michael @SuperLuckeee]

$TSLA everything you need to know about the sell off:

[Nebius @nebiusai]

This is our first full NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 rack, photographed in our Finland data center.

The NVIDIA Spectrum-6 switches we took delivery of last week is the scale-out fabric NVIDIA built for Vera Rubin. Compute and network are now being brought up together, in the same data center, by the same teams.

The close co-engineering relationship we enjoy with NVIDIA means we work together from the earliest stage of every new platform, shortening the path from first rack to production workloads.

After bring-up and validation comes software polishing and production-grade testing, so when Vera Rubin reaches our customers, it delivers its full potential from day one.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

TESLA $TSLA Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $28.24B (Est. $26.32B) 🟢; +26% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.33 (Est. $0.51) 🔴; -18% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 16.8% (Est. 19.4%) 🔴; -41 bps YoY
🔹 Auto Margin ex-Credits: 16.3% (Est. 18.1%) 🔴; -310bps
🔹 Free Cash Flow: -$1.09B (Est. -$3.25B) 🟢
🔹 Operating Margin: 1.4% (Est. 5.4%) 🔴; -269 bps YoY
🔸 Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas
🔸 Robotaxi is operating across seven major U.S. metros
🔸 First-generation Optimus production lines are being installed, with production expected in 2026

Segment Performance:

🔹 Automotive Revenue: $20.52B (Est. $20.05B) 🟢; +23% YoY
🔹 Energy Revenue: $3.14B (Est. $3.77B) 🔴; +13% YoY
🔹 Services and Other Revenue: $4.58B; +50% YoY
🔹 Automotive Regulatory Credits: $146M; DOWN -67% YoY
🔹 Services and Other Gross Profit: Record $648M
🔹 Services and Other Gross Margin: 14%

Other Metrics:

🔹 Deliveries: 480,126; +25% YoY
🔹 Production: 451,758; +10% YoY
🔹 Active FSD Subscriptions: 1.48M; +56% YoY, +16% QoQ
🔹 Energy Storage Deployments: 13.5 GWh; +41% YoY
🔹 Global Vehicle Inventory: 15 days of supply vs. 27 last quarter
🔹 Supercharger Stations: 8,704; +18% YoY
🔹 Supercharger Connectors: 82,357; +17% YoY
🔹 Cumulative Vehicle Deliveries: 9.7M

Financials:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $4.70B (Est. $3.45B) 🟢
🔹 Operating Income: $398M; DOWN -57% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $3.27B; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 11.6%; -353 bps YoY
🔹 GAAP Net Income: $1.11B; DOWN -5% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: $1.15B; DOWN -17% YoY
🔹 Capital Expenditures: $5.79B (Est. $6.70B); +142% YoY
🔹 Cash and Investments: $43.52B (Est. $41.0B) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔸 GAAP results included a $1.01B unrealized gain on Tesla’s SpaceX investment

Robotaxi and FSD:

🔹 Unsupervised Robotaxi operations are ramping in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa
🔹 San Francisco Bay Area operations continue with a safety driver
🔹 More than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription
🔹 Tesla reported record net new FSD subscriptions
🔹 FSD v14 Lite began rolling out to AI3 vehicles

Manufacturing and AI:

🔹 Tesla Semi remains on track to begin production in 2026
🔹 Megapack 3 and Megablock remain on track for production this year
🔹 Tesla more than doubled its onsite AI compute capacity in Texas during the first half of 2026
🔹 Cortex 1 Installed Capacity: Over 90 MW
🔹 Cortex 2 Installed Capacity: Over 115 MW
🔹 Construction and equipment procurement continue for Tesla’s Austin semiconductor fab
🔹 Model YL launched in the U.S. in July

Outlook:

🔸 Tesla provided no new numerical delivery, earnings or full-year CapEx guidance.

🔸 “Scaling will be non-linear, and we are focused on long-term value creation.”

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$TSLA Q2 EARNINGS

• Revenue $28.2B vs Est. $26.3B
• EPS $0.33 vs Est. $0.50
• Gross Margin 17% vs Est. 19%
• Energy Revenue $3.1B vs Est. $3.8B
• FCF ($1.1B) vs Est. ($3.6B)

Tesla expects Optimus production in Fremont later this year.