Since 2018: Trade wars, rising interest rates, Ukraine War, inflation, slowing economic growth, recession fears, the pandemic, quantitative tightening, increased volatility, Israel attacks and so on. Never blinked #GoBullish
@ChaseLochmiller@OpenAI GPT-6 Astra, trained on ~100K+ NVIDIA Grace Blackwell NVLink72. From ChatGPT to o1 to Astra in 4 years.
AGI has arrived. Congratulations @OpenAI team.
400K GPUs coming online next.
Sending lots of love to the Apple community on my last day as CEO. My title changes tomorrow, but the love I have for the Apple community never will. Thank you for being a constant source of inspiration. My gratitude is endless, and I’m excited for the next chapter!
Wealth isn’t about buying more stuff. It’s about buying more freedom.
Freedom to retire.
Freedom to help family.
Freedom to say no.
Freedom to do what’s most meaningful to you.
Absolutely insane.
Nvidia, $NVDA, just guided $108 BILLION in revenue for Q3 alone.
And, this guidance assumes ZERO data center compute revenue from China.
This builds on the record $96.2 billion in revenue posted for last quarter for a projected total of $204.2 billion in 6 months.
We now have a $5+ trillion company is seeing +106% year-over-year revenue growth.
There has never been anything like what we are seeing right now with AI.
This is arguably the biggest technological revolution of all time.
Vera Rubin delivers 2-30x more throughput per megawatt than Blackwell Ultra, depending on interactivity level.
The larger sped ups come from Vera Rubin being able to hit speeds than Blackwell was never able to realistically hit.
Nonetheless, you should read this as 1 MW of Vera Rubin racks can generate *at least* twice the revenue as 1 MW of Blackwell racks, and, in some configurations, much more.
This is why Nvidia can raise prices 15% and still leave plenty of margin for their customers.
Shocking stat of the day:
Nvidia, $NVDA, has added over +10 percentage points to the S&P 500’s +84% total return over the last 5 years, more than any other stock by a wide margin.
This represents ~12% of the S&P 500’s entire 5-year gain.
This is also more than double Apple’s, $AAPL, +5 percentage point contribution.
Microsoft, $MSFT, Broadcom, $AVGO, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, follow, adding ~3, ~3, and ~2 percentage points, respectively.
Together, these 5 stocks account for ~25 percentage points, or ~30% of the S&P 500’s total 5-year return.
A handful of mega-cap stocks are driving the entire market.
The S&P 500 ended the day at yet another all-time high, the 27th of the year and 470th since the start of 2013.
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher
On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, one of the worst starts to a year in history.
After a huge comeback rally, it's now up over 14% YTD, more than 2x higher than the average year at this point in time (+6.7%).
There is no impossible in markets.
@dollarsanddata This matches my experience going to restaurants in my 20s and early 30s. In my 20s going out was fantastic. Everything was new and fresh. But by my mid-30s, fancy restaurants started to lose their appeal. “My 60th dry-aged ribeye didn’t taste as good as my first.”
At a very hi level, free cashflow = operating cash flow - capex.
The hyperscalers are deep into an investment cycle so they are consuming their operating cash flow. It is incorrect to look at this and assume their FCF has collapsed because operating cash flow has collapsed.
It hasn't. Capex has exploded.
This cycle should be eerily reminiscent of Amazon's approach over the past 20 years when they did the same thing related to e-commerce and AWS buildout. The question should be what moat did Amazon create at the end of that cycle and what kind of moat could the hyperscalers build now related to AI after this cycle?