the most simple trades exist in a one-sided framework
tuesday reversal at relevant low, set an invalidation point
new york reversal profile forms a low at the extreme
entry in the continuation targeting opposing relevant high
take your trade, then end the day
A+ trade for me today on $SPX
here's are the @edgeful reports i used
- opening candle continuation (bullish)
- IB by rejection (bullish)
- IB single break (bullish)
- IB by retracement (bullish)
- IB by levels (bullish)
- inside bars (bullish)
- inside bars by open (bullish)
bullish days don't pull back nearly has deep into the IB as bearish days so as soon as price touched the 25% retracement, i was looking for an entry.
tbh, i got a sniper entry, one of the best entries ive gotten in a while.
immediately went in my favor, broke the IB high, and pulled back to my entry so i was back to breakeven
but all the reports today were extremely bullish there was no way i was closing it early without a strong confirmation to the downside.
i sold the put spreads below the IB low
there were way too many bullish reports set up today. i was not expecting a break of the IB low at all
this was an A+ setup for me with all the confluence. very happy with today
How to use Inside Bars:
Mark out PDH and PDL. If price opens between these levels, it's an inside bar.
For these inside bars, there is an 89% stat that price breaks PDH or PDL.
Once on level is taken, there is a 6% stat that price reverses and takes the opposing direction. @edgeful
the market is just moving from one relevant swing to the next
in between is where expansions take place
the reaction tells the direction,
the daily profile provides confirmation
alignment of those two things is my entire framework
if either is missing, there is no trade
$NQ - Initial Balance - 9:30am-10:30am
I was curious whether a couple of simple conditions could help identify the higher-probability setups.
So I checked with the Edgeful API.
Over the last 3 years:
>If the low formed first, the IB high broke first 74.9% of the time. 📈
- When the 10:30am 5m candle also closed above the midpoint, that increased to 81.6%.
>If the high formed first, the IB low broke first 69.6% of the time. 📉
- When the 10:30am 5m candle also closed below the midpoint, that increased to 77.4%.
A single 5-minute confirmation improved the odds in both directions.
Love finding simple refinements like these!
I've just found something veeeeery interesting regarding the 9:30 AM EST market open. 🤫
Specifically, the 1-minute 9:30 opening candle.
I used edgeful's ORB: opening range breakout report to identify the likelyhood of the opening candle high and low both getting swept.
And I found out that there's a 76.12% chance of both 9:30 High and Low getting swept just until the NYAM Killzone ends.
The NYAM Killzone goes from 9:30 to 11:00 AM EST.
$ES - 15min ORB
I was curious what usually happens after a 5m close above the NY ORB high.
So I checked with Edgeful API, the result👇
Over the last 3 years, price has reached the 50% ORB extension 86.2% of the time.
Knowing that, I waited for my long opportunity.
The setup:
- 5m close above the ORB high
- Limit order set for the retest
- Fixed 1.3R
- Target the 50% extension
TP was hit in under 10 minutes 🔥
Been having a lot of fun digging through the @Edgeful API recently. More to come.
Use this simple framework to trade expansions and continuations
Nq • 7h
Simple Asia Manipulation
London Expansion
New York Continuation
Opposing wick all respecting the 25% of the previous candle's range.
How to profile a trading day
Always get intraday direction.
Every trading day fits into one of four profiles.
Knowing the profiles and when to trade them is key
Here are the four profiles and when to trade them
Chapter 2 of The Essence Series.
A thread.
credit @_amtrades
Every entry I take comes down to one of three signatures.
Confirm the reversal.
Enter for expansion.
Chapter 4 of The Essence Series.
The final thread.
The Full Essence Model
This is the one I'm trading for the rest of 2026.
Model Rules [Bullish]:
- Previous day candle must be bullish
- Current day's overnight price action must respect previous day's 25%
Model Rules [Bearish]:
- Previous day candle must be bearish
- Current day's overnight price action must respect previous day's 25%
Entry Rules:
There are three entry frameworks I will be trading for this model but I will give the main entry framework for this model.
Bullish Entry Framework:
- Mark the low of the 8:00 - 9:00 time window
- During 9:00 - 10:30AM we want to see a manipulation of that previous 8 - 9 Low
- Then we want to see a reclaim and closure back above the low, thats the entry
Bearish Entry Framework:
- Mark the high of the 8:00 - 9:00 time window
- During 9:00 - 10:30AM we want to see a manipulation of that previous 8 - 9 high
- Then we want to see a reclaim and closure back below the high, thats the entry
It's really simple and mechanical while remaining highly profitable
It requires patience and discipline to stick to it
But once you do, you will see huge improvements in your trading