Bad manager syndrome in action. One person in the office uses too much sick leave or keeps coming in late. The manager doesn't have the guts to confront them to fix the problem so they create a policy that punishes the whole office
Germany's Chancellor Merz:
We can no longer accept the extraordinarily high levels of sick leave in our companies.
We are abolishing sick leave by telephone and introducing the requirement to submit a medical certificate from the very first day of illness.
We know this is a tough decision. But we can no longer afford this competitive disadvantage caused by prolonged absences from work.
What makes $GLD a bearish chart?
๐ Price making lower lows and lower highs
๐ Price below downward sloping moving averages
๐ RSI consistently below 50
๐ Relative strength trending lower
What makes $GLD a bullish chart?
๐ All the above points are no longer true!
Atlas Shrugged made simple:
1. Society runs on a small number of highly capable producers ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ industrialists, inventors, engineers โ whose work everyone depends on but takes for granted.
2. The system starts rewarding need over achievement: the more capable you are, the more youโre expected to sacrifice for those who arenโt.
3. Success gets treated like a debt โ taxed, regulated, resented โ until the most capable start asking why they bother trying at all.
4. One by one, led by a man named John Galt, they simply withdraw โ walking away rather than keep propping up a system that punishes them for producing.
5. Without them, the whole structure collapses, revealing that the โautomaticโ prosperity everyone assumed was actually being generated by specific, irreplaceable people.
6. Atlas is the Titan from Greek myth, condemned to carry the sky on his shoulders forever โ Randโs stand-in for the producer class, holding up civilization while getting blamed for it.
7. โShruggedโ is the whole argument in one word: Atlas doesnโt fight, doesnโt protest โ he just quietly sets the weight down. Nobody realized the sky was being held up by anyone in particular, until the day it isnโt.
You donโt want us? We just goโฆ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ
Funny thing on this chart, Perspective matters...
if you hold something that falls -50% it has to rise 100% to get you back to where it started.
if something you don't hold falls -50% it will gain 100% if it just gets back to where it started.
(there's a lesson in there)
I watched that Jeremy Grantham CNBC interview yesterday at least 10 times. Joe Kernen was a bit over the top yes, but CNBC needed this debate. I think it made for good television ngl. Do more of these 1v1 style segments lol.
And yes itโs true, the stock market will one day crash 50%. โOne dayโโฆ
But that day can be tomorrow, 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now. The $SPX can be well above 10,000 or 12,000, or 15,000 before then. No one knows. NO ONE KNOWS WHENโฆ
A little google search shows that Jeremy Grantham has been bearish yoy pretty much since Covid. The $SPX was trading around 2,400 lows then.
Hell, he even embraces the title of permabear by writing his newest book called โThe Making of a Permabear.๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ Thereโs your free plug Mr. Grantham. Lol.
Anyways the point is itโs a foolโs errand to time a stock market crash for 99% of us. Think opportunity costs for sitting in cash these 6 years if we took that advice. Or god forbid, shorted based on his advice.
It brings me to that famous quote popularized by Kenneth Fisher:
โTime in the market beats timing the market.โ
This little creek, at this spot, is the beginning of the mighty Colorado River.
This is the river that cut the Grand Canyon and supplies water and irrigation to Las Vegas and much of Southern California who depend on it.
It starts RIGHT HERE.
Big things often start small.
Silver Alert
One Channel is not like the other (Sesame Street)
Silver has been in a defined channel or trading range since the peak in January. Bears would look at the green channel for the potential of lower lows, while bulls are watching the blue horizontal channel which would have confirmed a low last week.
Adding MACD, we see positive divergences building while RSI, has been flushed to levels not seen since the big drop in silver in April of 2025 (35 to 28).
The Federal Reserve meeting is today. Lower oil prices may be correcting the inflationary thesis and setting up for a neutral policy stance. Any dovish comments or removal of rate hike commentary may set silver up for a move to the top of the blue channel.
Nice one from @FrankCappelleri in his note today.
That bearish S&P 500 pattern failed, much like what many bearish patterns tend to do in a bull market.
Wall Street's most famous bearish signal isn't bearish.
Nice reminder from @granthawkridge that the Hindenburg Omen isn't bearish for stocks.
We've noted this many times, but Grant found some of the best years in recent memory had many HOs (2013, 2014, 2017, 2024, and 2025)
No, it doesnโt. โCorrection territoryโ is not a term used by professionals, it is a stupid made-up TV journalism term. A correction is any movement of any size that is against the prevailing trend, but which does not establish a new trend. In an uptrend, a single downtick can be a corrective move. Or it can be the start of a downtrend. The size of the move does not tell you which it is.
So for those of you who want to demonstrate professionalism, let go of the silly โ10% is a correctionโ theme. It does not serve you or anyone else well.