Let´s use this thread to build the bear case for the Tools space/services $TMO $DHR $WAT $RGEN $WST
I mean industry-wise. Seriously considering sizing up and need to see the other side of the trade at this valuation.
@JerryCap@Borlaug_@TheTipasa@marc_slans@TheLAPurchaser
$WST $STVN Can we just take a step back and appreciate how market gives 2fks around the Annex 1 opportunity? 90% of the questions on GLPs when they are bakin in something absurd i.e. 10% growth with injectable prices collapsing 70% and generics coming online?
#scai2026 .@SCAI Keynote address on the history and evolution of TAVR. It has become the leading treatment for AS. Now focusing on the long term durability and outcomes.
@HerculeBaditt Assuming those splits are correct, aren’t this tasks already pass through revenue? I mean it would be a topline headwind but not necessarily margin.
gym guys will be like “i can’t believe they took the covid vaccine”
and then inject BPC-157, ipamorelin, MOTS-c, and an unpronounceable peptide shipped from Nicaragua after reading a subreddit comment from liverkingdisciple69 about mice getting jacked
The NYT just profiled a $1.8B revenue company with 2 employees.
Medvi is a telehealth GLP-1 provider built by Matthew Gallagher, 41, from his house in LA. He launched in September 2024 with $20,000. Here are the numbers:
Month 1: 300 customers
Month 2: 1,300 customers
2025 full year: $401M revenue, 250,000 customers
2026 run rate: $1.8B
Net margin: 16.2% ($65M profit)
Total employees: 2 (him and his brother)
Outside funding: $0
How it works: Medvi is a front end. Two platforms — CareValidate and OpenLoop Health — handle doctors, prescriptions, pharmacies, shipping, and compliance. Gallagher handles brand, website, ads, checkout, and customer service. All built with AI.
His stack: ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok for code. Midjourney and Runway for ad creative. ElevenLabs for voice. Custom AI agents to connect systems. AI chatbot for customer service (which initially hallucinated fake prices he had to honor).
For comparison: Hims & Hers did $2.4B revenue last year with 2,442 employees and 5.5% net margins. Gallagher is running 3x the margin with a fraction of a percent of the headcount.
Back into the unit economics: ~$336M in total costs, probably $160-200M to the telehealth platforms, leaving $130-170M mostly in marketing. Against 250,000 customers, that's a $500-700 CAC. High, but it works because his overhead is virtually zero and LTV at ~$200/month holds up.
He's expanding fast. Men's health launched in February — 50K customers in month one. Meal delivery went live last month. Women's health, hair growth, supplements, and skincare are next.
The vulnerability: zero moat. No proprietary tech, no doctor network, no pharmacy infrastructure. CareValidate or OpenLoop could raise fees or launch competing brands. Anyone could replicate this model in weeks.
Right now, the margins are enormous for anyone who moves fast enough. The question is how long that window stays open.
https://t.co/6bNt5w45Rx
@fdzmurillo I´ll bet compliance is better on orfo in RoW. Still, orfo COGS is way lower so plenty of room to beat NVO on price.
PD: don´t own any of the GLP-1 manufactures, I believe is a category with massive volume growth, but poor returns given price pressure/competition.
@fdzmurillo Truth is many people forget/ignores breakfast after taking the pill and keep their morning routine going, so part of that 16.6 is driven by that. If you do orfo with the same requirements I´m pretty sure gap would´ve been smaller.
$ECL Ecolab said it would implement a 10-14% energy surcharge effective 4/1 for all its products and services around the world to offset the surge in oil and gas prices