Jay

don’t mid-curve it

[Jay @_julizzle__]

@chimpfone lmao

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The inflation shock is over (unless the war restarts).

It's actually a fairly benign inflation report, if we once again set energy aside, although shelter costs in core came in hotter than we had penciled in.

Overall, it is good news for the inflation outlook that core goods pricing appears to be rolling over, and there is very limited evidence of any second-order effects from the Hormuz crisis.

As we have said repeatedly throughout May, inflation has peaked, and we will slowly but surely see that reflected in the data over the coming months. This report is likely to alleviate some of the worst concerns that Kevin Warsh will turn imminently hawkish.

Our technology at Nowcast IQ had headline inflation at 0.45% and core inflation at 0.24%, so we are once again printing within a few basis points of the actual numbers.

We remain one of the best forecasters in the world.

[LondonCryptoClub @LDNCryptoClub]

We often like to say zoom out!

Great thread from @Croesus_BTC on the torrent of capital set to flood into Bitcoin over the coming years

In many ways it’s just a pure numbers game and it’s the law of small numbers

Even a small percentage of global capital flowing into BTC makes this one of the best risk/reward “trades” out there

And that’s statically measuring the value of global capital in dollar terms

That dollar value is climbing every year via the ongoing debasement

Conviction and patience are the two qualities that define the most successful investors

Both are being tested right now in Bitcoin but the best trades are also obvious with the benefit of hindsight

The question is, do you see it yet? And do you have the patience to let it play out ?

[jords @jords]

i think we're somewhere in between depression and disbelief. ppl are bitter at the world and the markets that have failed them

everyday i see new tweets of ppl giving up forever or leaving the industry. pointing the blame at something or someone for ruining crypto

there is disbelief in anything bullish, there is anger at those making money. very few are even prepared to believe that things can go up again

there is an allure to doomerism, everyone wants to call the top and scream i told you so. to be contrarian is to disagree with the majority

i would argue if you're bearish crypto then you are much closer to the median rather than the contrarian. the contrarian believes in the depth of depression

in the long run, dumb bulls usually outperform smart bears. bulls have infinite upside while bears will always have finite profits

it is important to balance them, but when btc is down >50% and alts >70% your bias should be towards buying not selling

if you believe in this industry and you are just holding spot, then now is the time to increase your unit holdings of coins you think go much higher, not worry about timing 5% moves

worrying about when to sell is for a future day. now is the time to find the belief or log off

now is the time to reflect on all those times you pondered what could have been

your future what could have been will be decided on your current actions

i believe

[jords @jords]

the cool part is that it has looked completely over like 900 times and those times were fine in the end

[MacroScope @MacroScope17]

Just in case anyone didn’t understand that this BTC selloff is mostly a capital rotation story and not BTC-specific. Very easy to click “sell IBIT” in the brokerage account to free up funds for this.

In the long term, BTC will continue to greatly benefit from creation of an ETF. It also becomes more susceptible to short-term capital rotations by mainstream investors.

This rotation should slow (may have already started in the past day) then eventually reverse.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

I completely agree Dan. The next stage of crypto and BTC from an investment perspective should come in the application layer of Jensen Huang’s five layer cake with is basically related to software for the agentic world. Right now stocks are being driven by the chip, energy and infrastructure layers of the stack. I expect soon, the investor attention to look for ideas not subject to the bottlenecks and that is when I would expect BTC and crypto to break away from stocks but this time on the upside.

[Nik @cointradernik]

Forward returns, hit rate and best and worst returns across timeframe after BTC 6H RSI below 13 btw:

[Nik @cointradernik]

Bearish and bullish scenarios from here:

Bearish = 90d rvwap now sticks as reclaimed resistance and -> price breaks below 65k -> final push through 60k -> bottom

Bullish (what I think most of the evidence points to): this remains a macro higher-low formation above the Feb lows, albeit a brutal one in its pace (not dissimilar to the leg lower in Feb tbf) - price finds seller exhaustion here between 67-68 over the next couple of days -> reclaims 90d rvwap into next week as support, confirming the bear trap -> continuation to second test of anchored VWAP from ATH at 83.4 into July

*If* the latter is how it plays out, then the formation of the higher low and subsequent move back above 90d rvwap whilst altcoin dominance in at YTD highs is the catalyst for crypto summer

If bearish - and we haven't reclaimed 90d rvwap into next week - I will cut spot from 73.3 and lick my wounds

[Decode @decodejar]

Because the recent Bitcoin cycle was not a broad crypto cycle, it didn't create the large numbers of altcoin bag holders we usually see, at least not to the levels we saw in 2018 and 2022. Perhaps this is why we are seeing some altcoins shrugging off Bitcoin's recent downward trajectory.

The reasons for the lack of breadth were twofold, in my opinion: continued fallout and distrust in the space after FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows, Voyager, and Terraform all collapsed, compounded by persistent poor macro conditions that we can observe in many indicators.

So while the tourists are over in stocks buying loss-making AI startups with ridiculous valuations, I suspect that those still in crypto today have probably been here before.

In 2022, many crypto projects bottomed in June and did not make lower lows with Bitcoin later that year. This could be a similar situation. With macro slowly picking up, and after eight months of downside, now is not the time to be leaving.

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

Just put one foot in front of the other and don't think too hard

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I know a lot of you have been crypto only and are interested in stocks, or feel like you have missed the move. While yes, you largely have missed the first big leg. I'd like to remind you that there will always be more opportunities. This is all a 10 year buildout in general. That will continue into the 2030's

eventually there will be a large correction and you'll get things at a discount. But by no means have you missed it all and the reason i say that is bc a lot of it doesnt even exist yet. Unless you see 1 billion robots working in factories bc i dont see that yet. then you know we haven't even scaled yet. You will be fine, you will have opportunities. Things will change as long as you put yourself in a position to win when the time comes

[Jay @_julizzle__]

@Wild_Randomness what EMAs are you using on the 4h ?

[Jay @_julizzle__]

prolly cope but reposting every bullish propaganda

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currency). Why does that matter?

Because that giant reservoir of ~½ the world’s asset value contains the potential energy necessary to power hyperbitcoinization.

This is what Saylor sees.

But do you see it yet?

Consider Hoover Dam. The reservoir behind it contains 12 TWh of usable hydroelectric energy – it just looks like one big lake, calm and placid. But if you stick a pipe through that damn and put a turbine generator in the middle of it and let the water run through it… you can generate enough energy to power the city of Las Vegas for 5 years.

That’s potential energy. Stored, untapped power. And by removing the barrier for the water to flow towards a lower energy state, you can harness the pent up power of the reservoir.

This same mental model works for capital.

A high Sharpe ratio is the financial analogue of a low-energy equilibrium state. Capital flows downhill, always seeking lower risk per unit of return.

(Yes, I know everyone thinks about it as “highest return per unit of risk”, but this is the equivalent and helps understand the physical metaphor)

Do you see it yet?

Think about all the capital parked in fixed income instruments or money market funds. All of this capital is parked there because it has historically provided an acceptable trade-off of modest nominal returns for minimal risk.

The entire premise of fixed income is “here’s a way to park cash in low-risk instruments that will generate a positive return slightly greater than inflation.” Adjacent to this asset category is “cash and cash equivalents” where the value proposition is somewhat smaller returns in exchange for even less risk.

And over the decades, a steady stream of capital has found its way into these asset buckets that promise low risk and modest nominal returns via future fiat cashflows.

These buckets have become a giant fiat reservoir, brimming with nearly $500T of capital.

Do you see it yet?

Along comes Strategy. @saylor realizes that much of this $500T of capital would be better off if it flowed into Bitcoin. But Saylor also recognizes that this reservoir of capital is inherently constrained. Boxed in by convention, investment mandates, risk management, volatility aversion, etc.

It won’t flow to Bitcoin on its own. It can’t – it’s walled off, dammed up.

Strategy engineers a solution. Creates a product to meet that capital where it’s at. The $500T fiat asset reservoir wants low risk, low volatility, fiat cash flows. Strategy designs preferred equity instruments that solve for these constraints, while Strategy uses the fiat capital proceeds to buy Bitcoin (which it believes will appreciate at 29% CAGR for the next 20 years).

In exchange for capital today, STRC offers 11.5% annual returns with volatility asymptotically approaching 0. The Sharpe ratio is off the charts. It breaks everything in tradfi portfolio allocation. At first glance, it seems impossible. But it works because it’s not powered by risk-taking layered on top of fiat inflation; it’s powered by the ongoing monetization of a superior monetary asset whose endogenous properties ensure its appreciation when valued in fiat currency units over time.

Saylor terms this kind of Bitcoin-powered fixed income offering “Digital Credit.”

When a commodity flows from a high-energy state to a low-energy state, it releases energy. In the case of Hoover Dam, that energy can be used to power a hydroelectric turbine. In the case of Bitcoin treasury companies with Digital Credit offerings, that energy can be used to power shareholder returns for common equity holders. This can happen in every major capital market in the world.

Do you see it yet?

Strategy has stuck a pipe through the dam. A conduit through which capital can flow out of the Fiat Asset Reservoir and towards a low-energy equilibrium state. Digital Credit offerings (e.g., STRC, SATA, and others) create that value proposition.

And what’s the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? All $500T of fiat assets in the reservoir.

The recent SpaceX IPO Prospectus recently made a splash by claiming the company had a combined $28.5T TAM, proclaiming that this was the “largest TAM in human history.”

But my essay from 2023 titled “Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation” already articulated how Bitcoin’s TAM is all value itself, above and beyond the usual lens of annual economic activity across industries. Saylor read it, adopted it for his presentations, and built on it with the Bitcoin24 valuation model.

The SpaceX Prospectus is wrong. Bitcoin has the largest TAM in human history.

And Digital Credit has the second largest TAM in human history – the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit offerings will redirect some % of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir into Bitcoin. This will happen because the value proposition of Digital Credit offerings is higher Sharpe than anything I am aware of in the entire $500T reservoir, inflation-adjusted.

Think of it as the Second Law of Capital Dynamics: capital flows toward assets offering superior risk-adjusted returns.

If Digital Credit ingests 1% over the coming decades, that’s $5T. It seems unreasonably pessimistic to think that only 1% of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir would be interested in vastly better returns with a similar (or better) risk profile.

Let’s say Digital Credit appeals to a (still-conservative) 10% of the $500T fiat asset reservoir, that’s $50T.

Bitcoin is currently a $1.5T asset.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit may direct a torrent of $50T of capital into Bitcoin over the coming decades. All of it bidding for a finite supply of Bitcoin.

The scale of that inflow would likely drive Bitcoin’s valuation to $10m/BTC, or ~$200T total.

Digital Credit is the plumbing of hyperbitcoinization.

This is how it happens – you’re watching the early stages of Bitcoin’s monetization megatrend.

The question is: do you see it? Or will it have to play out first?

[Jay @_julizzle__]

@jords cope or not i still like this idea regarding underperformance since 10/10

[Rob @Rob_Jones19]

Ok, Tin hat theory, but makes sense. Hear me out, I've put a lot of thought over the past week into this.

This isn't a bear market. It's coordinated suppression. Among MANY headwinds.

There's no liquidity crisis. Credit isn't seizing. Both have slowed, but not massively decreased. Positive Fed, Positive shadow banking, neg TGA - pretty much evens out. Nothing in the macro picture justifies prices sitting here.

Headwinds exist, yes. But, nothing "crash" worthy. Which is why the ones calling for a bear market can't back it up with anything except some lines they've personally drawn on a chart of their bias'.

So why does it feel like this? Because prices are being deliberately suppressed. And nearly everyone with power benefits from it.

Start with the government. Trump signed an Executive Order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The U.S. holds 213,000 BTC from seizures (I was one of the first to say they'd never buy $BTC outright and would seize it like they did with gold btw).
Bessent has since said Treasury will explore buying more using "budget-neutral" strategies.

Here's how that works. Treasury holds 261.5 million ounces of gold, booked at $42 per ounce from 1973.
$11 billion on paper.
Gold just hit $5,500.
At market price, that's $1.44 trillion. Revalue the gold, and Treasury has a $1.4 trillion paper gain to deploy, no Congressional approval needed.

Sp, we look at what just happened. It rallied 100% in 12 months to all time highs and then out of the blue, completely crashed, something never seen before, not like this anyway.
Central banks bought 297 tonnes in 2025 alone. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is suppressed.
If you wanted to fund a massive Bitcoin purchase without Congress, you'd pump gold, revalue your holdings, suppress Bitcoin, and buy the dip with your gold windfall.

VanEck's analysis says a 1 million BTC reserve could pay off 35% of the national debt by 2049. The lower Bitcoin prices are when they accumulate, the more they get per dollar.
Gold at all-time highs. Bitcoin suppressed.

Banks benefit.
BNY Mellon just got SEC approval to custody ETF crypto. They're entering a $300 million market growing 30% a year. Lower prices means clients buy more crypto, more assets to custody, more fees forever. They want in cheap before the floodgates open.

Institutions benefit. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is their top revenue source. January 2026 saw $1.33 billion in ETF outflows in a single week while prices dumped.
But cumulative inflows remain over $30 billion. They're not leaving. They're shaking out retail and reloading at lower prices.

Hedge funds benefit.
Ethereum shorts up 500%. They profit directly from every drop and they know whats coming.

Exchanges benefit. Particularly Binance which we should all just boycott btw.

October 10, 2025 liquidated $19 billion and wiped 1.5 million retail traders. Binance's "infrastructure failures" locked market makers out for two hours while retail got liquidated. One trader went from $4 million to 22 cents.

Investigators found suspicious withdrawal of "buy side liquidity and oracle vulnerabilities" tied to Binance's internal orderbook.

The Binance situation goes deeper too.
SEC case dismissed by Trump admin. They're under a 5 year government compliance monitor from a $4.3 billion settlement, yet met with Treasury in April 2025 requesting its removal, wonder what the deal would have been.....
Meanwhile, Trump's stablecoin was used for a $2 billion investment INTO Binance. By December, Binance replaced their collateral reserves with it.```

The CLARITY Act is weeks/months from a Senate vote. The GENIUS Act covered stablecoins, this covers everything else.
Once it passes, pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and insurers get the compliance green light. They're under 5% of Bitcoin ETF holders right now. That changes fast.

Everyone positioned knows this.

The Fed published research showing large holders consistently buy before rallies while retail sells.
The SEC charged market makers for $2.57 billion in wash trading.

This isn't a bear market. Prices are being suppressed while the government, banks, and institutions accumulate.

Do you ever really think they would let US win?

The window closes when the Senate votes IMO. Liquidity will come, credit transmission will be fix, regulatory frameworks will be in place and crypto will EXPLODE.

Market analysis out this week on the dash - https://t.co/LIFqa71pf8

[Nik @cointradernik]

Crypto. Summer.

Don’t fight it… just let it happen

[Jay @_julizzle__]

@avgcryptoguy gm

[Nik @cointradernik]

Let’s party like it’s… November 2020?

Top 10 historical analogs to current state of Crypto Risk Score x Excess Liquidity Breadth:

[Jay @_julizzle__]

@kirbxbt fuck..

[Taiki Maeda @TaikiMaeda2]

Too many people worried about what could go wrong

What if everything goes right? What if we all win?

We are going so much higher