@EmbracetheUSA@aikisteve@Tesla@KRoelandschap You are someone who fails to see the essence. The shackles of the "supervisory type" are attached simply because it is required for licensing, not because it is autonomous driving capability. Look at the essence!
Tesla trades at $1.5 trillion today. Getting to $100T means a 65x from here. Sounds insane until you break down what Musk is actually stacking.
Layer 1: Robotaxi. Ark Invest projects the robotaxi market at $10T by 2030. Tesla has FSD testing unsupervised in Austin and SF right now. If Tesla captures even 30% of that market at its current 13x price-to-sales multiple, that’s a $39T valuation from autonomy alone.
Layer 2: Optimus. This is where the math gets wild. Morgan Stanley estimates the humanoid robot TAM at $5T. Citi says $7T. Musk said last July he expects 100,000 Optimus units per month within 60 months. At $25,000 per unit, that’s $30B in annual revenue just from robots by early next decade. But Musk’s real claim is that the TAM for “manual labor replacement” is effectively infinite. Global labor compensation runs around $40T annually. If Optimus captures 5% of that within 15 years, you’re looking at $2T in annual revenue. At a 13x multiple, that’s $26T in market cap from robots.
Layer 3: Energy. Tesla deployed a record 14.2 GWh of energy storage last quarter alone. This business is growing faster than EVs did at the same stage and nobody’s pricing it.
Layer 4: The manufacturing flywheel. Tesla just broke ground on a standalone Optimus factory at Giga Texas targeting 10 million units per year by 2027. They discontinued the Model S and Model X to repurpose factory space for robot production. That tells you where management sees the margin curve heading.
Add it up: $39T robotaxi + $26T Optimus + a few trillion in energy and EVs, and $100T stops sounding like fantasy. It starts sounding like the bull case where three separate bets all hit within the same decade.
The problem? Every single layer requires execution that Tesla has never demonstrated at the required scale. FSD still isn’t commercially deployed. Optimus Gen 3 is factory-only. The Cybercab manufacturing process is unproven. And BYD just outsold them globally in EVs for the second straight year.
$100T is the price tag on a world where Tesla wins autonomy, wins robotics, and wins energy storage simultaneously. The real question isn’t whether the TAM exists. It’s whether one company can capture all three at once.
This is probably the most incredible example yet of FSD saving a life, and the amazing software that Tesla has developed that enabled Jack to remotely help his Dad's Model Y navigate to the hospital on FSD.
A common thing I hear when speaking with gas car owners is that the idea of owning a Tesla is too complicated and not worth the trouble. They often cite not knowing where chargers are, and not wanting to deal with the headache of figuring it out. They also believe there aren’t enough chargers to satisfy their travel needs.
This is a myth, and the opposite of true for almost everyone. The truth is that Tesla ownership is actually easier than gas car ownership for travel, and in general. There is far less thinking involved. Tesla’s technology is leveraged to make transportation difficulty fade into the background. Literally all you have to do is get in, tell it where to go, and press a button. Quite literally don’t even have to drive, let alone think about where chargers are.
Here I am outside of Philadelphia randomly at 50% battery, asking the car to take me to Myrtle Beach down in South Carolina. After this clip, all you have to do is sit there, listen to podcast/music, eat snacks, and take in scenery. Pretty soon you’ll be able to watch movies and TV too.
That’s it, that’s the entire travel “planning” process. You don’t have to do it, the software does it. And after your first road trip using FSD 14.2 instead of driving yourself, the energy you will have at your destination will be impossible to ignore. You will realize the luxury of self driving far exceeds the extra 45-60 mins of charging required along a long route like this. You will realize the trip psychologically felt way quicker, because you didn’t have to be tensed up and locked in the entire time. It’s game changing.
This is why Tesla is a leader in customer retention. Once you take the plunge, you realize the truth is opposite what you thought before going for it, and you can’t imagine going back.
Waymo test van (manually driven) crashed into parked cars in Echo Park, LA Sunday. Driver unhurt, no one in struck vehicles. Family narrowly escaped – brother pushed mom out of the way. Close call!
Jim Cramer today on @Tesla:
"Repeat after me, Tesla’s a robot company. Tesla’s an autonomous driving play. It’s not just a car company. And this might be the quarter that defines that new narrative. The stock goes higher, if so, here’s what’s going to happen. The stock is just going to, from the moment you see the results, the stock’s going to go sky high. I’m not kidding. That’s going to be the one that does the best if they define it as a non-car company."
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