ajrapidch

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@airlovsky @Euroboomer have we broken out of the bear fork and now bullish ?

[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

https://t.co/wRFBHzryvj

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.

Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.

Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.

OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.

So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@ColinSt30481392 how high do you see price visiting soon, sir

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@airlovsky isn’t it too early for YCL ?

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

Breakouts that are accompanied by news effect is questionable. My favorite breakouts are those that make people wonder what is actually happening with the stock.

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@asklivermore which do u like most

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

Silver +4%

Silver will tell you where the market is going

[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

$GCT extremely oversold inside of a Bull Cycle

Good name to see a strong bounce in the coming weeks 🚀

[Peter DiCarlo @pdicarlotrader]

$HOOD Daily

Inverted Head & Shoulders forming.

Key liquidity zone above. If price can push through and sweep that area, next targets for me are 105–110.

I’m not taking this long unless the bull cycle confirms with a clean close over 110.

Not a signal. Just how I’m framing the structure and levels.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

A few have asked my pure classical chart view of S&Ps
The late Apr completion of a 6-month expanding triangle (megaphone) has a target of 7904, a nice round number $ES_F

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@pdicarlotrader at what price does monthly go red

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

#CRUDEOIL #ENERGY inflection point. Strong support 78-80 area.

[CyclesFan @CyclesFan]

$MSFT - Potential scenarios:
1. Bullish - Bottomed this week after hitting the 200 week MA again.
2. Semi Bearish: retest of the March low(356) or a lower low but not lower than the 2025 low(345).
3. Bearish: Break 345 and enter a secular bear market like the one in 2000-2009.

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@CyclesFan god green candle loading…?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

This is gonna upset a lot of people:

But TA is astrology for traders.

It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.

Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.

$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.

It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.

$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.

it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.

If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.

But for determining the actual upside... nah

People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.

It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.

Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.

So for entry points, sure you can use TA.

For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@RJCcapital why not nbis

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

Launching patterns.

[ajrapidch @ajrapidcmaster]

@TheRonnieVShow which ones are 4x? and how does it go to 4x to no longer being anything

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

I don’t think I’ll ever sell

$HIMS
$OSCR
$ASTS
$ADUR
$ZETA
$ETH
$BABA
$AMD

Their potential far outweighs the market returns for the next 10 years.