Akin Derin

💻 Tech & Semiconductor Investor. ⚡ Fotonik, donanım devrimleri ve değer yatırımı.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[investing @DollarCostAvg]

$AAOI Below $150 Looks easy add. Regardless of $AMD partnership, they are still projected to 5x revenue. $471 Million Per Month in 2027 ✅

[Cole Grinde @GrindeOptions]

Photonic stocks like $AAOI will continue to be in high demand especially if the AI boom cycle plays on.

Hundreds of million per month will be made by this company every single month.

$138 seems like a steal.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Finn Stockinger @FinnStockinger]

Quick note - Why the asymmetric upside in $AAOI is massive

Last quarter, they were generating roughly $50M in monthly revenue.

By the end of 2027, management is targeting $600M in monthly revenue.

How is that even possible?

Empty promises and hype?

Let's look at the hard facts.

1. Massive Capacity Scaling (Nearly 7x)

They are vertically integrated with a trusted Western supply chain.

They are aggressively expanding and upgrading their fabrication facilities (reaching ~900k sq. ft. in Texas and Taiwan).

Scaling production from ~90k to over 600k advanced units/month is the real engine here.

2. A Deep Paradigm Shift in Product Mix

We are in the middle of a massive architectural transition.

Legacy 100G/200G/400G modules are being rapidly phased out by hyperscalers, heavily replaced by high-density 800G and 1.6T transceivers with much higher Average Selling Prices (ASP of $800–$1,200+ per unit).

3. Demand is Absolutely Drowning Supply

Their main competitor, Lumentum, just announced that their 2027 transceiver capacity is already completely sold out and they are actively booking 2028 orders.

The AI datacenter infrastructure demand is insatiable. If the optical transceiver market bottlenecks similarly to the HBM memory shortage, component prices and margins could easily overshoot expectations.

4. The Elephant in the Room: Historical Execution Risk

Let's be completely transparent - a very valid and frequent bear case on $AAOI is the perceived bad/inconsistent management team.

Historically, they have struggled with execution, delayed product qualifications, and burning cash.

Hitting a $7.2B annualized run-rate requires flawless execution.

If they drop the ball on scaling yields or operational efficiency, this target slips.

5. The Risk-Reward Asymmetry

12 months x $600M = $7.2B annualized revenue run-rate by EOY 2027.

Even if they stumble operationally and only deliver 50% of this target, the current valuation remains incredibly defensive and fundamentally safe.

A portion of this exponential growth is already priced in after the YTD rally, but I still see a highly conservative 3x upside over the next 2 years, with a very realistic path to 5x from current levels if execution holds.

Heads you win big, tails you don’t lose much. To me, $AAOI is the definition of a highly asymmetric, unlosable long-term bet.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Always DYOR and evaluate your own risk tolerance. ⚠️

[JP Insights @Aktiehedonist]

$AAOI Applied Optoelectronics places record follow-on order for ClassOne Solstice S8 wet processing systems

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

That’s for you to decide.

But just throwing this out there:

If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC.

My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028.

I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Athu @athuinvests]

OMG! 😮 I didn't know this on $AAOI Q1 2026...

+182% NEW positions from hedge funds and large institutions.

Can't believe it went off my radar. And you are bearish anon?

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Yiannis Zourmpanos @yianisz]

People still call $AAOI an optics company. I’m starting to think that’s too narrow.

In the last few months we’ve seen hyperscaler 800G and 1.6T orders, broadband upgrades with Mediacom, and now Spectrum deploying AOI’s QuantumLink software across its connected amplifier footprint.

What’s interesting isn’t the revenue today. It’s that AOI keeps moving higher up the stack from selling hardware to providing the software layer that monitors and controls the network.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[AOI @AppliedOpto]

Spectrum is deploying AOI's QuantumLink™ software across its connected 1.8GHz amplifier footprint, enabling centralized visibility, remote management, automation, and network resiliency.

Read the news: https://t.co/zjBs0fzHOG

#Broadband #DOCSIS4 #NetworkAutomation #Telecom #AOI

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[AOI @AppliedOpto]

As AI infrastructure grows, optical transceivers face new demands for speed, consistency, and reliability. 
AOI's Simon Ximen explains why vertical integration is becoming a critical advantage for 800G and 1.6T deployments. 
Read more: https://t.co/2xFrYY2hPx $AAOI

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[AOI @AppliedOpto]

800G is now the working assumption for AI infrastructure builds. The real question is how to time the move to 1.6T. AOI's Simon Ximen on supply chain risk, OSFP form factor consolidation, and why optical qualification needs to run parallel to GPU procurement, not after it.
https://t.co/lGgrB56j52 $AAOI

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Things Noticed @thingsnoticed]

$AAOI is priced like a cyclical but ramping like a hyperscaler supplier.

Datacenter revenue up 154%, $324M in new orders in four weeks, guiding to $1B - double 2025.

Q3 confirms it or doesn't.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

@ParadisLabs $AAOI

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[AOI @AppliedOpto]

400G. 800G. 1.6T. The AI networking stack isn't slowing down.
AOI's latest breaks down the optical technologies reshaping data center infrastructure: CPO, XPO, LPO/LRO, OCI fabrics, and 6.4T On-Board Optics.
https://t.co/iWHdevKbVR $AAOI

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

@aleabitoreddit $AAOI

👍

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

Smart money knows. We're watching the next $SNDK unfold. This run isn't a bubble; it's the 1.6T laser bottleneck and the massive 2027 seller's market pricing in. Early money catches the wave. Spot on! 🤝 $AAOI

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long...

+20.1% today.

If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it.

I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players.

We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity.

Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months.

That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI 🔥

[The Asian Investor @asianinvestors]

Let's go! We up 10% already. I had a feeling it would pop on opening bell.

Risk premiums on oil was leaking so it was a tell market would be green overall from war news

And $AAOI was trading lower past few days and ~25% from highs.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Josh @JoshTradeOption]

I'm adding $AAOI tomorrow.

I've been researching all weekend.

The AI Photonics Powerhouse

$AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) is a maker of high-speed optical transceivers converting electricity to light for AI data centers.

They design and fab their own InP lasers, giving them a massive edge in a supply-constrained market.

• Explosive Demand & Orders: Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, others) are placing big volume orders for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. Recent highlights include a $200M+ 1.6T order + follow-on 800G wins. Backlog is growing fast. Management sees $1.4–1.5B in visible demand vs. >$1.1B FY2026 revenue guidance.

• Capacity Ramp is the Catalyst: Currently capacity-constrained. New 210k sq ft Sugar Land, TX facility starts production Q3 2026.

Additional Texas sites in 2027 push U.S. production >50%. Laser capacity +350% by 2027. Monthly data center revenue run-rate targeted at ~$471M by mid-2027 (implying ~$5.6B annualized). 800G/1.6T alone could drive billions.

• Margin Expansion + Vertical Integration and potential CHIPS Act/tax benefits vs. China-heavy peers.

• Valuation & Upside: Trading at a high forward P/E today because growth is just starting. Bulls see 4-5x potential in 12-24 months if execution hits (some call for $40B+ market cap by end-2026, $70B+ in 2027). Analyst targets like Rosenblatt at $220 cite AAOI as a core hyperscaler supplier.

Bottom Line: $AAOI is positioned at the AI infrastructure bottleneck, optics/lasers for next-gen clusters. If they deliver on capacity and margins, this becomes a multi-bagger.

Not financial advice. DYOR. High-risk/high-reward growth name.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now.

I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT.

High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers.

Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish.

Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors.

The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM…

I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops.

And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M.

Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[investing @DollarCostAvg]

Why I picked up $AAOI on this pull back after hitting $230. Here is my thesis.

AAOI Bull Thesis: 👇

Capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained business. Management estimates $1.4–1.5B demand versus >$1.1B FY2026 revenue guidance.

800G and 1.6T AI networking demand is accelerating with hyperscaler customers already placing volume orders.

Capacity expected to expand from ~100k units/month (Q1 2026) to >650k/month by YE2026 and >930k/month by 2027.

New 210k sq. ft. Sugar Land facility begins production in Q3 2026, creating a major growth catalyst.

Additional Pearland and Houston facilities come online in early 2027, increasing Texas production to >50% of total capacity.

Mid-2027 target of $471M/month data-center revenue run rate implies ~$5.65B annualized data-center revenue.
1.6T products alone could exceed $2B revenue in 2027 according to management commentary.

Vertically integrated InP laser manufacturing provides supply-chain advantages versus competitors.
Laser capacity expected to increase 350% by 2027, potentially making AAOI a top-3 global producer.

Gross margins expected to improve from ~29% currently toward 35% by YE2026 and potentially 40%+ by 2027

Expecting MCAP: currently 10 b to 40 billion by end of 2026

Likely will grow to 70 b in 2027.

[Akin Derin @akinderinnn]

$AAOI

[Athu @athuinvests]

$AAOI should be a great BUY during the next week. Road to $300 looks really clear in 1-2 months, possibly earlier.
If it dips more, I will keep adding. Easy 2X swing trade in a short span of time. 🫡