ATheGreat

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

Assuming the EUR 1.5bn is a clean purchase price with no hidden commitments, it is hard to see how a company rushing to delever can obtain 12x EBITDA when a higher-quality injectables pure play trades at around 12x. It almost looks too good to be true.

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

1/ $GXI SOTP logic looks compelling at current levels if execution holds. Wonder if there’s more to it that I’m missing?

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

The suspiciously high purchase price and the lack of disclosed details around the agreement, is concerning though. Depending on the underlying terms, the actual cash proceeds received by $GXI could be significantly lower than the advertised EUR 1.5bn.

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@dave_knoppers @Invesquotes Valid question. The Q3 revenue growth acceleration to +8% though should be irespective of the agreement. Would be interesting to know how much they expect from it in total, how much lands in Q4 vs. 2027 and what does this agreement mean structurally for the contarct volumes.

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@Hannesahl @dipinvest And with Novo/CagriSema facing delays, one has to ask whether Novo may have stretched itself too far by locking in injectable supply capacity ahead of the oral launch. (4)

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@Hannesahl @dipinvest Their largest customer has a favorable setup into 2027, with several approvals and launches likely to support ROVI, but the potential purchase of BioNTech’s German manufacturing sites is a less helpful signal. (3)

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@dipinvest With a long-term lens $ROVI is for sure getting interesting. Should you buy now when consensus is probably 20% too high on EBITDA?

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@l_m_s15 yes, Stratec

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@evfcfaddict Overall, the setup feels messy - specialty pharma facing several headwinds, while CDMO has stumbled at exactly the wrong time. and before it recovers the op. leverage could hurt them a lot in the meantime. In that scenario, they could easily de-rate a fair bit more. (4)

[ATheGreat @alexthegreat183]

@evfcfaddict Lastly, Nepravis’ (8% of revenue) LoE likely means significant erosion ahead. (3)