Alon Rosin

Head of Institutional Equity Derivatives @Oppenheimer

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

At midnight on February 6th, earlier this year, the doorbell to our apartment rang. The doorbell was followed by a pounding on the door. I answered the door and a security person in our building handed me his phone. It was my oldest daughter Eloise. She had found my 26-year-old daughter unconscious on the floor of her apartment and had called 911. The EMT team was already there, but they did not know what was wrong with Lucy or to which hospital they would take her.

I threw on some clothes and jumped in an Uber heading east toward Brooklyn. (Lucy lived alone in Williamsburg.) On the way, I learned that they were taking her to Elmhurst, a City trauma hospital in Queens. I arrived about five minutes after the ambulance to join Eloise, Lucy’s mom, and a friend, and waited to learn what was wrong.

After about 15 minutes, I asked a nurse where she was. I looked over his shoulder to his computer. Next to her name, it said “non-responsive.” I walked into the emergency room and wandered around looking for her until I found her unconscious on a gurney surrounded by several doctors and nurses.

By about 2:30am with the results from a CAT scan, Lucy’s doctors had determined that she had a massive brain hemorrhage and would need an emergency hemicraniectomy to release the pressure on her brain and remove the blood from the hemorrhage. I called our wonderful friend and family doctor Eddie Fisher and explained what was going on. He woke up Josh Bederson, Chairman of Neurosurgery at Mount Sinai, to find out more about Zach Hickman, the neurosurgeon on call that night. Dr. Bederson said Hickman was an excellent surgeon, which was comforting as we had no choice.

The surgery to save Lucy’s life began around 3:15am and finished around 5:30am. It was successful.

The following day, I joined Lucy in an ambulance while she was being transferred to Mount Sinai on Madison Avenue. Later that day, we determined from Lucy’s Oura ring that her hemorrhage had occurred around 9am, which meant that more than 19 hours had passed from the time of the hemorrhage to the completion of the surgery to release the pressure on her brain (I only wish @ouraring had an alert for this kind of a medical event. Imagine it could call a family member if the wearer doesn’t cancel the alert).

I later learned that the standard of care is not to do surgery to save a patient with a large brain bleed if more than five hours have passed since the hemorrhage. Even when the surgery is done, I was told that the likely outcome for the patient is a few months in a nursing home and death from pneumonia.

When I met Lucy’s doctors, I did my best to inspire them: “Let’s see what can be accomplished if we give her the best care possible and we invest unlimited resources to restore her to life.” And I promised that whatever we learned we would make available to everyone.

Dr. Chris Kellner, her neurosurgeon, and Dr. David Putrino, Director of Rehabilitation Innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System have led Lucy’s care team since that day. Words cannot describe the remarkable and compassionate care that she has received beginning with the EMT team and then from nurses, doctors, therapists, and the army of people who have worked to save her and return her to life. To this day, we have a daily Zoom where we discuss her progress and make adjustments to her care. While her care and oversight have been incredible, the learnings for the Mount Sinai team have also been elucidating and will assist in the care of many others.

Lucy began in a bad place. She was in a coma for several weeks and then awoke not being able to breathe on her own, unable to walk, see or speak.

Over the last six months, she has recovered her cognition – she understands everything including her circumstance – is able to walk a hundred or more steps at a time with assistance, is making progress with sounds, vowels and consonants and the beginnings of speech, but she remains unable to see.

Each day, she makes a little progress, and daily progress compounds. Every day I tell her that she just needs to make a little progress and it won’t be long before she is back.

We remain optimistic that Lucy will return to normal function. It will likely take years, but I believe it is only a matter of time, hard work, and technological progress, along with some, and perhaps a lot, of divine intervention.

Many people have been praying for Lucy and we are incredibly grateful for the prayers and remarkable support she has received. Lucy’s friends have been with her every day since the beginning, and their presence and friendship have saved her life and helped to rebuild and maintain her spirit. And on a very positive note, Lucy’s challenge has brought together our entire modern family who have all been incredibly devoted to her care and recovery.

Lucy's vision and other faculties may require some form of brain computer interface, work that is underway at Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience, Science, Synchron, Nudge, and other companies in the space.

If you are going to have a devastating brain injury, now is the best time in history for that to happen. We are living in a world when you can be confident that the blind will soon see again. We are going to do everything we can to help make that happen, including by assisting existing companies in the space.

With respect to our promise to make Lucy’s care available to others, we have made good progress. In May, a real estate colleague made me aware of a 93% vacant, brand new, 400,000 square foot Class A+ purpose-built biotech facility on West End Avenue between 65th and 66th Streets that missed the market and was available for sale. The Pershing Square Foundation acquired the building 60 days later.

We also put under contract an adjoining 130,000 square foot building at 320 West 66th Street that is currently being used by Saturday Night Live for studio space. The building has 35-foot ceilings with massive column-free spaces that can be converted into superb rehabilitation facilities. We will close on the SNL building in December.

We are also acquiring an adjoining vacant lot with additional air rights. With just the existing zoning rights, we can add a 150,000 square feet for a total of 680,000 square feet, a lab footprint larger than Rockefeller University, and that’s without including the potential for an upzoning that would allow for substantially more buildable area on the site’s 3.4 acres with spectacular views of the Hudson.

Our goal is to build the world’s greatest brain research, rehabilitation, recovery, human optimization, and longevity institute. We have named it The Ackman Oxman Institute or the AOI for lack of a better name, but also to reinforce the point that Neri and I and our family are all-in on the mission.

The AOI will be patient-centric. It will not be an academic research institute that produces lots of papers, a Nobel Prize winner or two, but little if any results for patients. We will be laser-focused on cures, treatments, devices, rehabilitation and exercise equipment, and targeted and basic research with a goal of massively accelerating the time from idea to innovation to production to helping a patient.

While the AOI will be a non-profit, it will have highly commercial instincts. The AOI will have its own venture funding and will work to develop innovations to create companies that we will seed, assist, and spinout to ensure technologies, treatments, techniques, and drugs get to patients as promptly as possible.

On one 3.4 acre campus in what is still the greatest city in the world, we will do neurosurgery, neuroscience, rehabilitation, nutrition, BCI and device development, human trials, hyperbaric oxygen treatments, and life extension programs, and we will mandate and incentivize collaboration among the teams with no silos, politics, bureaucracy, or any other constraint that is inconsistent with the mission.

Mount Sinai will be an important partner and deservedly so, but it won’t be our only hospital or medical school partner as we don’t believe any institution has a monopoly on the best ideas or the best talent. We don’t believe in exclusive relationships because that is not in the best interest of patients.

Five years ago, we considered launching a brain institute inspired by Neri’s mom who sadly died from Alzheimer’s. We couldn’t make the math work as the real estate was too expensive and we believed it would be too difficult to recruit the best talent from universities to our effort.

Since then, the real estate became available at a 70% discount, universities became a much less attractive place to work due to politics outweighing meritocracy, protests that disrupt learning, the curse of antisemitism, and a decline in funding. Fortunately, during the same time, I made sufficient personal economic progress to make the AOI possible.

The advance of AI in the last few years will also enable us to greatly accelerate our mission. AI still has a lot to learn about human intelligence and the brain, and the AOI should be at the forefront of the interplay between the brain and AI.

Today, I am making a public filing disclosing a gift from Neri and me of ~$400 million or 10,000,000 shares of Pershing Square Inc. (PS) to the AOI. It is very early days for Pershing Square so these shares are intended to anchor the long-term work of the AOI as the shares compound over time while generating what we expect will be a growing stream of quarterly dividends to fund the Institute.

We will also be announcing an additional gift of similar and potentially greater size which won’t be in the form of Pershing Square stock to provide the AOI with the short- and intermediate-term runway necessary to enable it to achieve its goal of becoming a self-sustaining institute, which reinvests all of its revenues, royalties, and the economic rewards of company formation to advance the fields of brain health and human longevity.

Neri and I have chosen to anchor the funding of the AOI to maintain vision alignment and limit the need for the organization to focus on fundraising. We expect the AOI to be the best-resourced brain, rehab, recovery, and longevity institute in the world.

We are grateful to have been able to form a board which includes Dean Kamen (our generation’s Thomas Edison), George Yancopoulus (CEO of Regeneron), James Rothman (Nobel Laureate), Bernardo Sabatini (neuroscientist), Chris Kellner (neurosurgeon), Olivia Flatto (CEO Pershing Square Foundation), Neri Oxman, and myself.

We have recently identified a CEO who we expect to announce by October along with other key hires, and are beginning searches for a Chief Scientific Officer, a Chief AI/Technology Officer, a Chief Operating Officer, a Chief Financial Officer, and other key leadership roles.

If you find what we are building compelling and want to be part of the leadership team that creates and builds the AOI from a standing start, please send an email to: [email protected] with a short note as to why you believe you can help. Please include your best three ideas for the AOI along with a summary of your background and your most important accomplishments.

We promise strict confidentiality to those expressing interest in working with us.

We have learned from Lucy that the brain can recover from even catastrophic injury. There is so much more work to be done as the mind is a terrible thing to waste.

For details from my Pershing Square SEC filing see:

https://t.co/gZKafCw6Ia

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

A must read for anyone interested in how the financial guardrails of the economy will look with the merge of AI and crypto. Combine this with Yen intervention and today’s debt buyback news and you can see the old system vs the new system. Be ready.

[John LeFevre @JohnLeFevre]

https://t.co/m88ICasGZ1

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Last week, I asked @RickRieder for his expectations on both the number and magnitude of interest rate cuts:

"I've learned in my career that when you say something that's a no brainer, you're setting yourself up for a really, really bad outcome, but I think we got to get the funds rate to 3%."

"I think the critical number to watch next year, which I think is quite frankly the most important thing for monetary policy, is the 10-Year Treasury."

https://t.co/w6oHuO9cGM

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I awoke this morning gravely concerned about New York City. I thought “What has NYC become that an avowed socialist who has supported defunding the police, whose solution to lowering food prices is city-owned supermarkets, who doesn’t understand that freezing rents will only reduce the supply of housing, who has no experience managing an organization -- let alone a city with a $100+ billion budget and a $2 trillion economy -- and who believes chants for ‘Globalizing the Intifada’ are acceptable, wins the Democratic Primary.

After speaking to those who supported @ZohranKMamdani, I believe that he won the primary largely not due to his policies, but rather because he is a superb politician who ran a remarkable and inspiring campaign. He is intelligent and articulate. He is young and charming, and he successfully played down incriminating @X posts and statements from his past, pitching a joyful campaign of unity.

And he won because the competition was very weak. His best competitor sat back and did not run a real campaign, relying on name recognition, early favorable polling and keeping a low profile to make it through. Not a strategy that I have ever seen work, but so be it.

The Democratic primary voter is clearly tired of the Democratic politics of the past and its aging and over-the-hill leadership – Who isn’t? [As a case in point, how embarrassing is it to watch aging Dems fall in line with their tweets of support for Mamdani, as they desperately try to defend their seats from the far left?] And therefore, without any real competition, Zohran and his attractive personal qualities and campaign skills magically make him the candidate of the future.

The problem, however, is that his policies would be disastrous for NYC. Socialism has no place in the economic capital of our country. The ability for NYC to offer services for the poor and needy, let alone the average New Yorker, is entirely dependent on NYC being a business-friendly environment and a place where wealthy residents are willing to spend 183 days and assume the associated tax burden. Unfortunately, both have already started making arrangements for the exits.

Mamdani is right that much about NYC is broken. The City has gotten much less safe while the cost of living here has become increasingly unattainable for many. We pay more for less. Unfortunately, his headline campaign promises of frozen rents and cheaper food from city-owned markets, among others, are certain to fail.

A mayor who disrespects the NYPD and has called for their defunding will get less effective policing, and Bratton’s ‘broken window theory’ will operate in reverse. A mayor who condones hate speech will incentivize more hate speech and violence. Words matter, and yes, they can inspire people to kill as we have recently tragically seen in our country and around the world.

New York City under Mamdani is about to become much more dangerous and economically unviable. Unlike our Federal government, NYC cannot print money, and this Federal Government won’t bail NYC out if things go bad. In fact, Mamdani would be a windfall for the Republican Party as NY becomes another failed major city run by Democrats alongside Seattle, Chicago, LA, and SF et al as Senator Fetterman so eloquently stated today, "I'd describe it as Christmas in July for the GOP."

So why did I become optimistic later this morning? The answer is that NYC has woken up in the last 24 hours. The substantial majority of NYC residents understand that socialism is a failed system, that rent freezes will destroy our housing base and shrink the affordable housing supply while killing new construction, and that an anti-capitalist Mayor will destroy jobs and cause businesses and wealthy taxpayers that have enabled NYC to balance the budget to move elsewhere. If 100 or so of the highest taxpayers in my industry chose to spend 183 days elsewhere, it could reduce NY state and city tax revenues by ~$5-10 billion or more, and that’s just my industry. Think Ken Griffin leaving Chicago for Miami on steroids.

The good news is that there are other charismatic, intelligent, articulate, handsome, charming, young yet more experienced and, importantly, more centrist politicians who are New York residents eligible for office. There are also extremely talented members of the NY business community who could be superb mayors, Bloomberg being the reference standard from the past.

And the setup is extremely attractive for a run for mayor. There are only 132 days until the election, which means the commitment of time to run is de minimis. This will be the most closely watched mayoral election in NYC in decades, perhaps ever, which, particularly in the social media and podcast era creates the opportunity for a new candidate to garner immediate name recognition, enormous media interest, and the visibility needed to get elected.

Importantly, there are hundreds of million of dollars of capital available to back a competitor to Mamdani that can be put together overnight (believe me, I am in the text strings and the WhatsApp groups) so that a great alternative candidate won’t spend any time raising funds.

So, if the right candidate would raise his or her hand tomorrow, the funds will pour in. I am sure that Mike Bloomberg will share his how-to-win-the-mayoralty IP and deliver his entire election apparatus and system to the aspiring candidate so that the candidate can focus all of his or her energy on the campaign.

One unfortunate fact, as far as I understand, is that the candidate will have to be a write-in as I believe that none of the current candidates established a nominating committee if they were to withdraw, which means that no one can take their spot on the ballot. This is such an important election, however, that I believe the write-in requirement could actually turn into an important call to action that brings people in throngs to the polls. It therefore won’t be the game stopper it would normally be in a typical election.

As a result, the risk/reward of running for mayor over the next 132 days is extremely compelling as the cost in time and energy is small, and the upside is enormous. If the candidate does not win, there is no harm, no foul, because the perceived probability of beating the Democratic nominee in a NYC mayoral election is extremely small. Therefore, there is no reputational risk to losing this election, and the corresponding reputational benefits are extraordinary whether one wins or loses.

If the candidate wins, this is obviously a huge home run for the City and the candidate, but it is also an opportunity to save the Democratic Party from itself, grabbing the wheel just before the party goes even further off the cliff. The new mayor would be a national superhero for the City, for the Party, and for the country.

For the aspiring politician, there is no better way to get name recognition, build relationships with long-term donors, and to showcase oneself than to run for mayor over the next 132 days. This election is already global front page news. For the aspiring young candidate, the amount of publicity and the massive followers to be gained are of incalculable long-term value whether they win or lose, and whatever they choose to do in the future, business, politics or otherwise.

And there is a defensive reason for a politician to run. For the more centrist Democrat politician, a Mamdani win is very bad for your next election. As the Party veers further to the left, the Party’s backing for your future candidacy deteriorates substantially as Mamdani and AOC take control of the Party.

In my experience, opportunities with minimal downside that don’t require huge investments of time while offering massive upside get filled. If you were ever thinking about running for office, or running for a higher office than you currently hold, this is likely the best opportunity that you are going to have.

All of the above is not just theory, as I have a superb candidate who I believe can win who meets all of the criteria, but if I were to say his name or even reach out to him, it would have a negative effect on his candidacy, as I am a supporter of President Trump, and that alone taints anyone I would recommend for many and perhaps most NYC Democratic Party members. So rather than my making suggestions, I welcome yours.

Who is your best centrist candidate who could go toe-to-toe with Mamdani on the campaign trail and on the debate stage? Let’s crowdsource the names and then do a poll.

If someone is ready to raise their hand, I will take care of the fundraising.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the right candidate. More importantly, it is an opportunity to save our City and be a superhero. Life is short and you must dare to be great.

The time is now.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.

President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good.

And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country.

But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.

The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.

If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.

What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large,
long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?

I don’t know of one who will do so.

When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.

And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.

Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for.

The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.

Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.

May cooler heads prevail.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

1/ There are positive macro signs showing up for Bitcoin. Time for a thread.

Thread

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

From my favorite broker:

Early in my career, I became exposed to the idea of using the Kubler-Ross model on the five stages of grief as a useful framework for sequencing in the context of broad market drawdowns:

Denial: I think the market has been working through this stage over the last few weeks.

Anger: This is where we are now in my view, investors are annoyed that the promises they felt were made in terms of capital markets activity and broad economic expansion are not currently a priority for the Administration and are therefore blowing out of those positions most closely aligned to those themes.

Bargaining: Subject to the payroll number today, this may be around the corner.

Depression & Acceptance: these are the final two stages, it’s very difficult to know ex ante what will happen to catalyze the investing universe to experience these feelings but I think you can start to feel better about adding risk when we are in the Depression area.

----------------------------------

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

Just read Stripe’s 2024 annual letter.

It’s a must-read for anyone in BTC and crypto. 🚀

It reveals how AI, AI agents, and stablecoins are merging into a single unstoppable force for digital finance and payments.

This is the next phase of the digital economy. 🧵⬇️

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I have recommended only one book on @X, Outlive by @PeterAttiaMD. Now I am recommending a second one, which is as well written and important, The 5 Types of Wealth by @SahilBloom.

In short, the book is a guide to how to live your life. The earlier in your life you read it, the better your life will be.

Sahil compiles decades of wisdom in a few hundred pages with powerful charts that will cause you to make positive changes in your life.

I like asymmetric investments and I don’t know of a better return than this book. Read it. You will thank me and Sahil.

[Gary Falkowitz @GaryFalkowitz]

If you’re serious about a Mayoral run @CurtisSliwa, NY families could use your help. @GovKathyHochul is ignoring New York grieving families and siding with insurance companies. Let’s get this fixed!

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

Many traders struggle to profit because they are generalists. Having an edge means being a hyper-specialist. A small niche (For me, 3 setups in ES) that you know better than 99% of people, have drilled 1000x & can wait all day for. You wont beat the algos as a jack of all trades

[Riz Iqbal @Wordsofrizdom]

This weeks episode is with a multi hedge fund manager who is also one of the worlds leading Quant Traders.

This is the most in depth and knowledgable trading podcast episodes EVER recorded.

Be sure to be ready with your notepads on Thursday 6pm BST / 1pm EST, we have truly been blessed to have the honour to host Cem Karsan.

Make sure to do your research ahead of time and understand the magnitude of the level of guests to come.

Hedge funds and institutions are trying to learn from this man and how he observes and understands markets.

You will get almost 2 hours of direct access.

This episode will challenge you to expand your mindset on markets and will no doubt require you to rewatch mutiple times in order to extract as much knowledge as possible.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Rising yields, falling stock prices ahead due to Fed pivot, Damped Spring’s Andy Constan predicts https://t.co/r9VUyh57i5 thanks for having me on @CNBCFastMoney @MelissaLeeCNBC @karenfinerman @timseymour

[Alon Rosin @AlonRosin]

Agree Scott - hedging has been a losing proposition for a long time now BUT if one is able to monetize 1-2x per year, it pays for the annual budget. This protection also allow an investor to have more Long Exposure on which if you sold stocks versus being 100 percent Long plus a 4 percent annual Hedge budget, your performance is killing it relatively. Big time. There is a possibility that one day the market might not keep going up so we recommend that people get educated right now on how to play both sides in an intelligent manner

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

Given Bitcoin is up 100+% for the 2nd year in a row and has been around 100k for a couple weeks now, it should be no surprise that everyone on X seems to be debating breakout or bubble top. Given my view is this is still early in the Bitcoin/US stock debasement story, here is my take in a thread including a signal/chart that worked the last two times and I think need to happen again before the next cycle top.

[Mr Wolf @Wolfquant]

SOLD all my $BTC today at $100.4K

It has been a fun ride holding the corn all the way from FTX bankruptcy and Luna ponzi (<$20K) to euphoria again.

Not buying back until $31K here is why..

(1/6)

[Alon Rosin @AlonRosin]

@dampedspring @boazweinstein Thank You Andy! It’s been an honor being a Day 1 client of DSR 💯

[Alon Rosin @AlonRosin]

@yaacov @boazweinstein Need to be Long plus select protection. Outrt hedges and shorts very difficult for a long time in this environment for sure!

[Alon Rosin @AlonRosin]

@boazweinstein Thank you Boaz! Interesting times all around…