PetroDollar

Oil and Tanker Freight Markets Analyst. Chemical engineer. Armchair economist, philosopher

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

Now that the OPEC+ meeting finished, can we go back to watching how fast Cushing fills up? #WTI #CL_F #OOTT

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@tdefenceagency those are not C130s!

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@YasmeenRoumie sheep a flockin

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@TedPillows @dana916 always this way. margin call selling

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@_GenXSteveN_ @DarioCpx indeed. Japan probably need some agreement/buy-in from the US fed before they intervene, so the Fed chose Brent's last day to have max impact on oil prices.

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@FirstSquawk classic western disinfo....yawn

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

what this tell me is two things.

1. The strait of the Hormuz is closed—VLs have few options of where else to go

2. VLCC rates USG/FAREAST (currently$18M) are set to collapse as supply trumps demand by a long shot.

Why this fascinates twitter is a mystery. Exports should rise by 700,000 to 1M bbls/day - the same amount being released by the strategic petroleum reserve.

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

I certainly hope youre not risking money on this Dario. where is physical $140? not in Cushing, OK!
WTI futures well reflect their price at their market center - which is in a massive tank farm in Cushing, Oklahoma. Not Rotterdam, not Houston, Singapore, nor Chiba, Japan.
It costs you say another $10 to get those bbls down a pipe and across a dock into a ship in Houston and then perhaps at today’s freight rates another $12-15 to deliver those bbls to Rotterdam
Oil is much like real estate in this sense - what matters is Location, Location, Location

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@clashreport non NITC (Iranian) vessels have zero interest in ballasting into the Persian Gulf, nor do they have the insurance cover to do so. Any IRGC aren't allowing it anyway.

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@yingikeme @clashreport Truth

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

incorrect. VLCCs routinely transit the Suez in ballast, and also carrying about 70% of their fully laden cargo (1.4M out of 2M). what to do - rest of the cargo? Well you use the SuMed pipeline in Egypt of course. designed specifically for this. Drop cargo in RSea, pick up in the Med.

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@biancoresearch @Navsteva remind me if a time when empty tankers were NOT sailing for the USA?

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@ed_fin 17 “miles” per hour! His VLs are hauling ass!

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@EpsilonTheory incorrect. Negative net imports = net + exports

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@bryce_m88 @JavierBlas @PrometheusCHT $4-5b is the number folks kicking around

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@JesseCohenInv lies

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@Simi_2210_ 179

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@vinayram88 @jxcxbrxss @elerianm @nytimes i just mean your last chance at predicting Brent June prices via futures is in the end of April! but when June finally rolls around and physical starts trading the story could be very different indeed. ie the original post at top of thread

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@FreightAlley now do diesel

[PetroDollar @alstopp]

@try_chodofu @elerianm @nytimes because the war of course! took a few weeks for mr market to realize it wasnt ending in 2 days. physical trades on scarcity not opinion. platts dated brent windows these days are mostly all bids - no offers. so the bids keep going higher, drawing out offers. scarcity has arrived