If you are buying a NEW BUILD investment property after budget primarily for the tax deductions, you aren't buying an asset.
You are buying a subsidy.
And the market has already priced that subsidy into the upfront cost. Here is how the mechanism actually works against you:
@IFM_Economist Forced selling is the metric everyone watches, but the silent killer is the total freeze in transaction volumes. A illiquid market is incredibly unpredictable to price.
@AvidCommentator well, instead of trying to show you what your friends are doing, meta tries to keep your eyes on the screen at all costs, thats where the feed breaks. users are the products being sold to the lowest bidder - that was always the way but just got worse
@justthink1@DFA_Analyst drop is real. but doesn't automatically mean great houses on best streets will come for sale too. there are reports of new builds in some places have gone for more than their price.
@GrahamY well probably, because it eliminates the effort of execution, but the value is in human judgment? when anyone can produce perfect output in seconds, the only advantage left isn't how fast we can do the work -it's knowing exactly what problem is worth solving in the first place
@MatthewBevan data centers scale dynamically and need to sit right next to the fiber networks in major cities. the challenge isn't just the sheer volume of juice, it's the speed of this rollout especially next to urban grids right when everyone else turns their air con on
@PeteWargent Rents are climbing leading to higher gross yield pretty soon. however higher holding costs, increased strata levies, and current interest rates are going to squeeze investors a bit atm
@GeoffWilsonWAM It is just a theatre of process, but the real issue is uncertainty with legislations that can't be counted upon. for a founder or investor - long term exit cost is not just a tax on wealth and becomes a compounding tax on inflation.
@AvidCommentator it's what we do with the data ? even importing a generation's worth of healthcare workers in 24 months doesn't fix a hospital queue if the local hospitals, transport, and grid networks take 10 years to expand.
the valuation gap is where theory hits a wall on settlement day. buyers see the sleek marketing and assume the bank's valuer will just rubber-stamp the off-the-plan contract price. when the valuation lands $50k short because construction costs outpaced local established sales, the buyer has to find that cash gap instantly or default.
it would be a mistake if assuming a movement built entirely on friction can transition smoothly into managing it. It is much easier to point out the cracks in a system from the outside than it is to budget for the repairs from the inside. The skill sets required to capture frustration and to execute complex policy are rarely found in the same room but guess what skill sets can be built/leveraged.
@AvidCommentator when the traditional opposition fails to capture momentum from an unpopular budget, it signals a deeper disconnect. If the market decides both sides are just rearranging the deck chairs, the smart money stops betting on politics and changes its entire risk strategy.
the biggest mistake in demographic modelling is treating any group as a monolith. people who move across the world to build wealth are, by definition, highly aspirational and risk-averse. What happens to the voting patterns of a first-gen citizens once they become stakeholders with skin in the nation? They turn out to be the most fierce defenders of local stability and neighborhood standards instantly.
It highlights a massive blind spot in how we project modern infrastructure constraints. software can scale globally in 24 hours but the underlying power grid takes 5+ years to build a single major transmission line, where does the friction hit first? It won't be the tech companies that ration capacity-it will be the local energy prices for our local smb businesses using the commercial asset underneath them
@PeteWargent the math works perfectly on a spreadsheet because spreadsheets don't have to deal with friction or human behaviour. per the article, system is manufactured by choices-no wonder govts spend all energy fighting the output what was expected to be instead of auditing the blueprint.
@realAndyRomano Spot on. The city-wide media headline says the market is down 2% while new duplex in a individual pocket inside sold for more than its price due to recent changes.
@rjmontgomery the challenge with the AI narrative is that it scales at the speed of software and thats great, but the economy still moves at the speed of brick, mortar, and borrowing capacity
@OwenRask Winding back the CGT discount and confining negative gearing to new builds assumes capital will just meekly pivot to constructing new pipelines. and there are already reports of small new duplexes are selling more than the price worth because of these while confined old stock.
@tompanos the real question for the >50% that don't sell under the hammer is where they go next. stale private treaty listings for 90 days, or quietly pull the property off the market entirely? That choice from vendors determine FURTHER pricing correction for spring/summer.