The level of Quantum Computing skepticism today reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching Bitcoin and then dismissing it as valueless.
Quantum Computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY.
QC will break Bitcoin if we do not upgrade it. The threat is real.
Many studies converge on the QC threat to Bitcoin being only 5-10 years away.
As few as 2500 logical Qubits may needed to break SHA-256 algorithm in Bitcoin (read: https://t.co/l5g86lpIj1). Not the ridiculous 300 million you are reading about on X today. Note a logical Qubit is not equal to a physical qubit, but the error correction capabilities are getting exponentially better each year.
Timeline estimates are based on probability curves. With many estimates putting a serious 50% risk on Bitcoin in 5-10 years. Eg: (a) https://t.co/QdD3sqf1Q5 and (b) https://t.co/gDIvHMVbyf
Further, with all tech development curves going exponential, and given the massive leaps in QC in 2024 alone, I think we will end up on the more aggressive side of this scale.
Just 2 years ago you couldn't imagine working with AI. Now AI makes coding, development and research 50-100% faster. The world is moving exponentially people. Brace yourselves and wake up.
Very importantly, most (not some) QC firms listed on the NASDAQ are giving forward guidance and expecting to be at around 3000 logical qubits in just five years.
Whether its 3, 5, 10, 15 years away isn't the point, the point is action needs to be taken TODAY.
Best case scenario, once we have agreed on a QC proof cryptography upgrade for Bitcoin, it will likely take 1 year just to move everyone (most) across to it. Further reducing the lead-time we have to act.
It's good everyone is talking about Quantum Computing today, perhaps it will finally start to be taken seriously.
If you want to enjoy Bitcoin for decades to come, we should be on the front foot of QC now.
My recent thoughts on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, and the crypto industry in the aftermath of the sweeping Trump/Vance victory on Nov 5: the drivers behind the Crypto Renaissance, a Digital Assets Framework, and the geopolitical logic of the Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve.
Visualizing the first 96 days of trading for the Bitcoin spot ETFs:
🟩531,000 Bitcoin were bought by ETFs
🟥Grayscale has sold 305,000 Bitcoin
🟧86,400 Bitcoin have been mined in 96 days
🚨In 2 days time the Bitcoin halving is going to only exacerbate the enormous supply/demand imbalance that was created in 2024.
I found a guy who goes around the US asking 70 to 100-year-olds their:
• Biggest Regrets
• Biggest Lessons
• Advice to their younger self
Oddly enough, most of their answers are the same…
Here are my top 8:
Let. Me. Say. It. Again.
98% of nations or political states that hit 130% sovereign debt to GDP in the last 225 years had hyperinflation, default, or war within 15 years.
That means your historical EXPECTATION is for the USA to have a major war, default, or hyper-inflationary event in the mid-late 2030s or sooner.
Other options are obviously possible, but for it to take longer than 2030s would be (by definition) a historical outlier… For it to never happen is even more remote.
To assume “X can’t happen because our economy is big” is to be historically naive…
Germany was the 5th largest economy when it underwent hyperinflation in the early 20th century.
The Dutch went from global superpower defeating the British in multiple wars and colonizing modern New York to default.
The Spanish Empire produced 80% of the world’s silver then hyperinflated.
China in the 12th century. Egypt. The Persians. Britain. France. Japan. India. On and on…
It is entirely possible to have a currency or debt reset without the end of the world. Default is the optimistic scenario.
The reason we can guarantee our debts in nominal terms is because we guarantee debasement in real terms.
It is a mathematical certainty debasement will occur because we guarantee to never become nominally insolvent.
This is not a debt problem, but a debt-to-equity problem.
What were to happen if instead of collapsing under debt, the United States were to just add #Bitcoin to it’s balance sheet and pump it up thus making itself solvent again?
Few understand the game of musical chairs.
In the same way Michael @saylor destroys the monetary premium of his stock, increases debt, and buys #Bitcoin… governments will be forced to consider the same.
The only way to save your company/government becomes to destroy the political currency premium ASAP via converting it into #Bitcoin premium.
The optimal path for one to protect themself is to transition from fiat to #Bitcoin… from the individual to the billionaire to the nation-state.
We will cross the chasm where #Bitcoin goes from being viewed as a speculative internet number to being the backing behind political currency in of itself.
We are approaching a cliff of unsustainability where the universal answer is to plug the ever-widening insolvency hole with an ever-faster printer forcing the #Bitcoin price ever-higher.
A million simulations, countless historical examples, and game theory all pointing to the same direction.
In short:…
When few want to buy your bonds+fiat because it is backed by nothing print more of it out of nothing and dump that new supply onto those still willing to sell #BTC for it… This works until the latter group has fully transitioned to the former (which you are accelerating).
Then… infinite bid.
Printing your currency for #Bitcoin becomes the only way to stay solvent today but in doing so you make the end state of nobody wanting your currency only more inevitable.
Max pain for #Bitcoin is up, up, up.
Larry Fink said on TV that demand for #bitcoin ETFs have been by retail. This is because big whales have a 90 day trading delay that ends in the beginning of May. April 2024 will therefore be the last month ever for normal people to become wholecoiners. Use April well.
What you don’t understand about $MSTR is that it is not just a software company that is denominating its treasury in #Bitcoin.
@Saylor has, effectively, turned it into a Hedge Fund that is performing a massive macroeconomic arbitrage trade, attempting to capture a multi-hundred-trillion-dollar mis-pricing of debt and equity markets by shorting them against #bitcoin.
Its future profitability therefore exceeds that of #bitcoin because it is not just capturing bitcoin’s price appreciating, but also capitalizing on a short trade of the entire fiat system.
He is doing what Buffett did with a small textile manufacturer-turned-insurance company called Berkshire Hathaway in 1965.