NFL Week 6 Preview
Here’s what I’m looking at on this slate
- Caleb Williams looks like he’ll be back. His offensive line is well positioned to mitigate Atlanta’s better than expected pass rush given the absence of both James Pearce and Jalon Walker off the edge.
- Kyle Monangai will miss this week, but Bears pass catchers have a clean injury report. Chicago’s passing attack has plenty of upside in Atlanta, especially considering that Ben Johnson is absolutely a bounce back spot coach coming off an undesirable loss to Green Bay.
- On the other side of this matchup, Michael Penix is in and Chicago’s defense is banged up, with their edge group in particular being down Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo.
- Ultimately, this is a dome game, where both offensive lines are better than the opponent’s pass rush. Both offenses have considerable upside.
- Jacksonville played in London last week, where they will essentially host rival Houston. That game’s trenches are the opposite of Bears at Falcons, as both the Jaguars and Texans’ fronts will have an advantage against the opposing offensive line.
- David Montgomery is out, putting Woody Marks in position to see most of the Texans’ running back workload, as he did last week after Montgomery left.
- This is a much more desperate spot for 1-4 Houston than it is for 4-1 Jacksonville, who could bury their primary competition for the AFC South crown with a win here.
- The 2-3 Colts need to beat winless Tennessee, where Indianapolis’s clearest path to victory is to lean on their offensive line and Jonathan Taylor, keeping Daniel Jones in a game manager role where their defense plays well against what may be the most poorly coached offense in the league.
- Going into the year I was very down on the Robert Saleh/ Brian Daboll hires, as well as Tennessee’s free agent decisions. I framed them as a dark horse to end up with the No. 1 overall pick in this coming draft. I had very low expectations, and this is somehow going even worse than I was expecting.
- The Jets aren’t that bad. They have a good skill group, a solid offensive line, an intriguing young edge duo, and a secondary that is currently exceeding expectations. I expect the Jets secondary to fall off sooner than later, but overall they have a pretty good looking young core.
- Patriots LT Will Campbell is banged up, as is running back TreVeyon Henderson. If one or both of those players missed it wouldn’t be a surprise, and A.J. Brown is still out.
- I’d still call this a solid matchup for Drake Maye, because the Jets don’t have a game derailing front, but that gets a little dicier if Campbell is ruled out. Regardless New York’s defensive talent vs Maye’s current supporting cast is close to a draw, which I wouldn’t have said last year when these teams played each other.
- I don’t have any confidence in Geno Smith having a strong game against Mike Vrabel’s defense, that’s the component of this game where even if New York’s defense plays up in this spot, I could still see Vrabel’s defense driving a victory. The Jets being down Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and maybe unique matchup problem Kenyon Sadiq doesn’t help on that side of the ball.
- The Eagles are coming off a London game while the Panthers are coming off a bye, which is an absurd twist of the schedule.
- Philadelphia’s offense has been steamrolled by injuries, including a blood clot that will indefinitely sideline Jalen Hurts, thrusting Tanner McKee into a starting role. McKee won’t have Saquon Barkley to lean on, but DeVonta Smith is back, who we can reasonably expect to see a pretty high target share, against a Panthers’ secondary that is still down their top two corners.
- If the Eagles win this game, it’s on Vic Fangio’s defense to carry it against a Panthers’ coaching staff that has had two weeks to prepare for them. That said, this is a very good test for Bryce Young, who has been better than just about anyone outside of the Panthers’ organization expected so far this season.
- The 3-1-1 Giants are slight home underdogs to the 1-4 Saints, who are still down their left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.
- For New York both of their offensive tackles and difference making edge Abdul Carter have questionable designations.
- Heading into the season, I suggested that opposing defenses aren’t going to let Tyler Shough get free yards over the short to intermediate middle this season like they did last year, they are instead going to make him beat them on the perimeter. Shough is avoiding the intermediate plus middle and isn’t really playing very well over the last several weeks, where his passing chart last week in particular was pretty unbelievable in just how much he avoided the middle of the field. I’d expect John Harbaugh’s staff is aware of this.
- Barring a Jameis Winston meltdown game, which is probably coming in the relative future, New York’s pass rush and running games have good matchups, and Winston could conceivably have a good game against New Orleans’ defense.
- Tyrone Tracy saw a little work last week, and it would be nice to see him form a relatively even timeshare with Cam Skattebo. I could see that helping both players.
- Malik Nabers had 20 targets last week and has over 100 receiving yards in each of the last two games. He and Isaiah Likely are the top two options in this passing game by a country mile, and Winston does historically feed his favorites.
- If you’re the Browns playing the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, I think you load up the box to stop Derrick Henry and count on your secondary in a “make Tyler Huntley beat you” type macro game plan. If DT Mason Graham and LB Carson Schwesinger both play, it wouldn’t surprise me if Cleveland stole this game behind a good defensive effort.
- I would expect that Declan Doyle will anticipate this and likely try to lean into some early Zay Flowers volume, who also happens to be off the injury report.
- Deshaun Watson has been better this season, but he took 8 sacks last week against the Jets. This offense still isn’t trustworthy.
- The Dallas Cowboys made Jalon Daniels look like a real NFL quarterback in primetime last week, but the Steelers are an entirely different animal than Dallas on defense.
- I wasn’t crazy about Aaron Rodgers opening day performance, and he was in a no win situation against New England in Week 2, but he’s been quite good since, where I could see him playing well in Tampa.
- If DK Metcalf was ever going to have a spike game, it would make sense if it happened this week. That said, I was impressed with how well Tampa’s corners played against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens last week, who are both bigger receivers.
- The Rams pass rush can derail Arizona’s offense with LT Paris Johnson sidelined, and Matthew Stafford could realistically carve up the Cardinals defense. I’d be quite surprised if semi desperate 2-3 Los Angeles lost this game. If the Rams offense and pass rush play up, I could see this one getting very out of hand.
- Jerimiyah Love is out, and while I’ll say that it looks like he’s been playing through an injury, given what he’s done this year I don’t think it really matters that he’s out.
- Right now, with their starting offensive tackles sidelined, the Chargers have the worst offensive line I’ve seen in recent memory. Justin Herbert played well at times last year behind the Chargers’ injury-reduced offensive line, but he also hasn’t played very well this year, even though the environment he’s in is truly bad and his coaching staff isn’t helping at all.
- To be more specific, I have seen a number of throws (and decisions) that Herbert normally wouldn’t make. I’m not sure if he’s uncomfortable with the new offense or if it’s simply that playing behind an unreliable offensive line is starting to mess with his playstyle, but I’ve definitely noticed that this year it can’t all be pegged on the bad offensive line.
- I would think lots of short in breakers for Ladd McConkey right from the jump would make a lot of sense.
- Otherwise, Andy Reid off a bye, against a talent-poor Chargers defense, looks like 0-6 for Los Angeles.
- If the Chargers lose this game, not only should they have a fire sale, but I’d like to see Derwin James with Brian Flores in Minnesota. That would be an absolutely fascinating combination.
- Back-to-back road games for Buffalo, with the Raiders coming off a very lopsided loss to New England.
- Kirk Cousins has played very well, and Vegas is a fairly unique offense in the sense that their two best pass catchers are tight ends. I might argue that running back Ashton Jeanty is the third.
- Both of the Raiders’ perimeter corners are over six feet tall, so I’m curious if Josh Allen still gives Keon Coleman a 50/50 ball or two against them. A couple years ago I noticed a run where Allen was giving Coleman contested catch opportunities, where it struck me as if he was, in part, trying to develop him. One of the reasons I’m curious to see if Allen will give Coleman these kinds of shots against bigger corners is because I’ve noticed this same kind of trend this year.
- Monday Night Football is the undefeated team with the better coach, the better roster, with a perennial MVP factor at quarterback in the 49ers, at home, against a 1-3-1 Washington team whose season is starting to slip away. The Commanders’ most realistic path to victory in this game is if their dynamic quarterback, Jayden Daniels, puts the team on his back and carries them to an upset victory.
- One genuine positive for Washington is injuries and a suspension have narrowed the talent gap some, as the 49ers wide receiver room has been ravaged by injuries, their secondary is banged up, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw is suspended for this contest.
- When Kyle Shanahan was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator around a decade ago, Dan Quinn was the head coach of the Falcons. While Shanahan has evolved since then, Quinn is uniquely aware of how Shanahan operates.
- Packers vs. Cowboys is an interesting Sunday Night Football matchup, where Dallas is coming off a bad loss and a long week, while Green Bay is coming off a spike game against the Bears.
- I have my eye on Cowboys defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, because if he doesn’t create havoc in this game against a better, but still very beatable Packers’ offensive line, Jordan Love could march his offense up and down the field against Dallas. Former Packers Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary could also be impactful, but Williams is the guy that has to play up here.
- I’m sure Cowboys fans are thinking that it would be nice if recently acquired cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is available this week, because if he’s not Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are going to be a real problem for Dallas.
- Green Bay’s defense is down their two best players in LB Edgerrin Cooper and former Cowboy Micah Parsons, making the Packers a bottom tier pass rush that’s mediocre at best in their linebacker group without Cooper.
- Javonte Williams has a good matchup, but along with Quinnen Williams, I’m putting this one on Dak Prescott. Dak didn’t do very much against the Giants on Opening Day, and he played most of last week’s game against Tampa throwing off his back foot. Green Bay has a similarly talented quarterback and they definitely have the coaching edge, but ultimately Prescott has to play a plus game for 2-3 Dallas against a bottom tier pass rush.
I have watched every NFL game for roughly a decade. I have done this for the purpose of sports speculation.
I run a reality-based program here.
Engagement is how I reach new users. So as long as engagement remains strong (comments/ shares) I’ll continue pumping this and similarly detailed insights out every week.
Michele Tafoya eviscerates Peggy Flanagan during the Minnesota Senatorial debate:
Michele Tafoya: "It is rich to hear my opponent talk about lost access to programs when under her watch, while she was second in command of this state. Minnesota saw billions and billions and billions of fraud dollars walk out the door to fraudsters.
This historic fraud happened in her watch, and suddenly she's looking out for Medicaid and SNAP - Sell it to someone else."
ESPN crew commenting on this highlight
'Peggy Flanagan got JACKED UP'
The federal investigation into Ilhan Omar’s finances will find tens of millions of dollars in reported valuations suddenly vanishing, tax troubles with state tax collectors, and companies reportedly taking in a lot of money suddenly collapsing after overstating their business activity. Having covered corporate accounting frauds at the Wall Street Journal, IRS frauds, and the subprime mortgage fraud crisis, it’s an understatement to say something is seriously off.
In May 2025, Omar’s financial disclosures valued her husband Tim Mynett’s stake in Rose Lake Capital at $5M–$25M for calendar year 2024. It began operations in 2022.
She also disclosed in Congressional records the value of his stake in their winery eStCru at $1M–$5M. The winery launched in 2020.
But just a year earlier, she had reported the stake in Rose Lake Capital was worth only $1 to $1K, and eSTCru, $15K-$50K.
Then came a major reversal. Just this year, Omar amended her 2024 and 2025 disclosures on March 26, changing both businesses’ asset values from millions of dollars to
“None.” For 2024, Rose Lake income changed from “None” to $100,001–$1M; eStCru income changed from $5K–$15K to $2,501–$5K. For 2025, Rose Lake income changed to “None” and eSTCru income changed to $201–$1K.
So what was going on at the businesses that were supposedly worth as much as $30M just two years ago?
In November 2024, Rose Lake Inc.’s CEO, William Hailer, reportedly testified in a bankruptcy proceeding that the company had no money, assets or investments. Right as Omar's disclosure valued her husband's stake at up to $25M.
Rose Lake Capital listed its headquarters at 80 M Street SE, Washington, D.C., a WeWork coworking location. There was no visible Rose Lake signage or staff. There are no SEC records that either her husband, his partner, or their investment firm were registered with the SEC as investment advisers. Its website boasted “deep global networks in more than 80 countries” when its D.C. WeWork office shared space with a Walmart operation and the American Trucking Assn.
There was little to no public evidence of real business activity. No verifiable public track record of Rose Lake managing money for investors. No publicly disclosed clients, investment deals, or portfolios identified. Rose Lake’s public website removed the names and bios of its listed officers and advisers amid scrutiny.
Omar’s husband Tim Mynett and his partner had little to no Wall Street experience. They had co-founded a political consultancy, where he helped raise more than $100M for Democrats and worked on Omar’s 2019 re-election.
Her husband’s Rose Lake Inc. had to forfeit its registration in Delaware in 2024 for failing to pay the state a big $403K in back taxes, and for having no registration agent. This was right as Omar was claiming in her disclosures his stake was worth up to $25M from less than $1K a year before. How does a firm that is supposedly valued at that sum not able to pay its taxes?
And Washington, D.C. also had cancelled its registration for Rose Lake Capital LLC, too, for failure to pay reportedly just $1,770 in back taxes. Another inconsistency: the Delaware entity is Rose Lake Inc., but Omar discloses it as Rose Lake Capital LLC.
As for his winery where Omar suddenly valued his stake at $5M in 2024 up from $15K-50K just a year prior - there were wines marketed online, but no signs of a functioning winery facility, tasting room, or production operations at the supposed address.
An investor had sued Mynett and his partner alleging they promised to triple his investment in the winery to $900K from $300K, but failed to deliver returns. He claimed in his suit “there is no legitimate business there.” The dispute was reportedly settled in November 2024. eStCru was subsequently dissolved in California in April 2026. #news #News @IlhanMN@GOPoversight@OversightDems@DHSgov@IRS_CI #BreakingNews @AP@Reuters@EveningEdit@FoxBusiness@FoxNews@JudgeJeanine@CBSNews@ABC
For those of you who missed @JerseyJustinUSA on the great @dbongino Dan Bongino Show today here it is. Justin Murphy is a true conservative in contrast to @CoryBooker who is just another far left socialist in the Democrat party.
Time for change in New Jersey NJ Senate
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,
My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov.
The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison.
I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return.
I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something.
Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act.
Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged.
Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working.
A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats.
This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried.
There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go.
Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him.
I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them.
This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one.
Three things would change the math overnight.
Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined.
End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one.
And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them.
Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine.
I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it.
Respectfully,
Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
Today, my @NJAssemblyGOP colleagues and I testified against Newark’s $498 MILLION school lease.
One member admitted it could be built cheaper....then voted YES anyway. Another dismissed our criticism as unhelpful, claimed we offered no solutions, then delivered the classic line about “holding children hostage.”
Apparently, asking for an alternative that doesn’t involve nearly HALF A BILLION dollars for a LEASE through a developer tied to major political donations was a bridge too far.
The rebuttals from those testifying were disingenuous at best, and that’s me being complimentary. The show of entitlement was surreal: documented facts brushed aside, disputed enrollment projections left unresolved & legislators criticized for asking questions and pointing out irrefutable evidence.
If the truth offended you, consider the parents across NJ whose children are losing teachers, sports, and programs as you lecture us about "caring for kids" while approving this unprecedented & gluttonous debacle.
That level of cognitive dissonance allowed the board majority to hijack every taxpayer’s wallet and call it “for the kids.” @NJDCA
Voting NO: Chairman Michael Rogers and William Close. THANK YOU.
Voting YES: Dominick “Nick” DiRocco, Robert Jackson, Ryan Cooper, and Idida Rodriguez.
This isn’t over. The lease still requires approval from the @NewJerseyDOE. The Commissioner has a separate decision to make: approve it or deny it.
Here’s an excerpt of my testimony below. Much more on this to come.
@AswVickyFlynn@VoteBergen@VoteKanitra@VoteMyhre@DeclanOScanlon@NJSenateGOP@njassemblydems@NJSenDems@GovSherrillNJ@njedreport@NJGOP
Democrats let 40 million unvaccinated people into our country illegally. Dems made NJ a sanctuary state. And she’s not calling about a measles outbreak. Again Democrats creat a problem then fake outrage and point their finger
This explains the timeliness of @repilhan fraud and why a DC judge actually signed off on the warrant to raid her home! She's in deep shit! This video doesn't even go into the $700 million in cash that was smuggled out of Minnesota that went to Dubai then to Somalia!!
This is NOT a skit.
Jaime West, a Democrat running for Fayette County Council in Indiana, gave an EMBARRASSING interview where she appears to mumble and rant the entire time.
Is she intoxicated?