Temu Capital

low T, high FDV takes on @touch_market
passed the Turing test (once), ex-(ex)ⁿ

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

perp DEX meta in a nutshell

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

A large liquor store can carry 5000+ different wines. Most consumers recognize only a few, loyalty is weak, quality is opaque, the industry is highly fragmented, direct to consumer is limited, and wholesalers are mandated many places. Wineries must be the worst business ever.

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@simpelyfe true neurodivergence requires sacrifices not many humans can take

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

The real symphony begins with these settings. Thank me later.

[Sim @simpelyfe]

If you use https://t.co/uBwy77Fip8, let me give you some advice that'll maintain your sanity whilst providing only the relevant information. Turn trade pings off. Turn liquidation pings on. Set it to the lowest possible threshold so you hear all liquidations. Moderate pings? Price is retesting an existing high or low. And if subsequently you hear a loud ping during low volatility hours, the MM's have hunted a stop. And if you here the pings scream -- that's a cascade, obviously. This allows you to simply use aggr for the pings and not have to view the charts so your set of eyes can focus on other tasks.

[VNTGPRN @VNTGPRN]

One thing that isn't talked about much re: crypto bear markets is the idiosyncratic sell pressure that you see that really has no cross asset correlation or inverse correlation.

There was a really great article (here: https://t.co/B2CgQBwZiB) about an ibit block trade where the seller took a massive 2.3% discount on $1.26b to execute the trade. This is the kind of panic I associate with crypto bear markets. There's no way to know for sure the intent of the seller, but you can guess why it happened and neither scenario is particularly bullish. Furthermore, it turns out they were on the right side of that (at the time of writing this) considering where we are now. Again, no way to know for sure why, we can only know how and take guesses.

Panic is real. Discretionary allocators will continue to be discretionary and let psychology and emotions dictate their next actions. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but it does break even the best models (especially cross asset correlation based, taker flow models as a result of this being an etf block trade, etc)

Despite this point, the market structure has changed drastically and there are way more people trading this stuff that have more money than you and actual mandates. Their orderbook footprint is also a lot different than your typical whale as well.

Which brings me to my next point, one of my bear market edges has decayed significantly. I've seen a couple of tweets about this now and I've been aware that it hasn't been paying me as much as it used to. However, scalping liquidations isn't the bread and butter trade it once was for me. In bear markets, we used to get massive OI flushes and liquidations which you could trade with very few tools and simple execution rules that don't really happen as much anymore. Furthermore, bitcoin's annualized volatility is in a secular decline (it's actually less than some individual big tech stocks). Bitcoin's average intraday volatility has also been in decline since 2021. It's harder and harder to rely on intraday "mispricings" showing up routinely.

This is one of the consequences of institutional participation. Don't get me wrong, retail still owns a lot of bitcoin, but 18% of the float is in institutional custody and it's easy to argue that the institutional cohort (saylor/dats, hedge funds and CTAs, corporates etc.) is the marginal driver of price. Bitcoin is a macro asset, that's going to trade and keep trading more and more efficiently. This decays a lot of edges that worked reliably in the past and that doesn't necessarily eliminate idiosyncratic selling.

I wrote something similar in the past how I could see a bitcoin bear market that breaks the 4 year cycle (slow bleed, chop, market cushioned from extreme intraday downside, no 70% drawdown on a timer) and I think it's right especially if we head into a world where sovereign yields in developed economies are >4% - 5% or the volatility on these instruments is elevated relative to the last 10 - 15 years or the market prices secularly higher yields to compensate for higher inflation or a productivity boom (AI buildout). That's one path of many though and I genuinely think that this time is a bit different.

The market is a lot more competitive now, and the backdrop of everything that's going on in markets and geopolitics isn't going to make it any easier.

Thanks for reading ❤️

-V

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

in terms of eons I haven't aged a day

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

@0xSweep it would be interesting to measure the biological age impact of crypto versus other professions to evaluate if it’s an accelerate of aging processes

[ℏεsam @Hesamation]

Mythos, regulate something.

make no mistakes.

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@VNTGPRN that's a nice sandwich right there

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@Czar102 change to CZ please

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@blknoiz06 @DancingEddie_ @touch_market @Czar102 https://t.co/GEgaQMYKWb

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

Perpetuals invented in the early 90s, not 2011 as commonly cited, found early PMF in 2016-2017 through BitMEX and the first widely recognizable BTC bull regime. Proven Lindy by Binance years later and by the recent perp DEX meta. No doubt about that.

However, what if:

a) 0DTE traders (US, India) prefer theta decay over high-lev liquidations that come with simple delta-1 exposure, because they're anchored to enticing premium/payoff dynamics and convexity. India is a useful benchmark for comparing short-dated exposure vs. perps popularity – particularly the 2022-2023 window before the taxation event.

b) Recent "Yes/No" price iterations from prediction markets are massively limited in scope, and "Above $X" formats are simply UX-heavy. HIP-4 is a good example of shipping infra to meet the meta, with a trade-off of lacking end-user experience. Especially when so much can be done on the backend side to increase position customizability and support fast-paced trading in binaries.

c) Much more expressive crypto infrastructure and sharp engineering is needed to streamline trading in a format that has found PMF partially, but still has room to grow and beat perps the way perps once beat spot. One-touch options are the natural next frontier in binary payoffs.

@Czar102 @koolkrypto223

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@blknoiz06 @DancingEddie_ @touch_market
- stellar tech from 2025 Paradigm Fellowship winner @Czar102
- insane capital efficiency
- no liq, no ADL trades
- still pre-mainnet
- Future of France

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

shrimp farming alpha

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

Perpetuals invented in the early 90s, not 2011 as commonly cited, found early PMF in 2016-2017 through BitMEX and the first widely recognizable BTC bull regime. Proven Lindy by Binance years later and by the recent perp DEX meta. No doubt about that.

However, what if:

a) 0DTE traders (US, India) prefer theta decay over high-lev liquidations that come with simple delta-1 exposure, because they're anchored to enticing premium/payoff dynamics and convexity. India is a useful benchmark for comparing short-dated exposure vs. perps popularity – particularly the 2022-2023 window before the taxation event.

b) Recent "Yes/No" price iterations from prediction markets are massively limited in scope, and "Above $X" formats are simply UX-heavy. HIP-4 is a good example of shipping infra to meet the meta, with a trade-off of lacking end-user experience. Especially when so much can be done on the backend side to increase position customizability and support fast-paced trading in binaries.

c) Much more expressive crypto infrastructure and sharp engineering is needed to streamline trading in a format that has found PMF partially, but still has room to grow and beat perps the way perps once beat spot. One-touch options are the natural next frontier in binary payoffs.

@Czar102 @koolkrypto223

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

Perpetuals invented in the early 90s, not 2011 as commonly cited, found early PMF in 2016-2017 through BitMEX and the first widely recognizable BTC bull regime. Proven Lindy by Binance years later and by the recent perp DEX meta. No doubt about that.

However, what if:

a) 0DTE traders (US, India) prefer theta decay over high-lev liquidations that come with simple delta-1 exposure, because they're anchored to enticing premium/payoff dynamics and convexity. India is a useful benchmark for comparing short-dated exposure vs. perps popularity – particularly the 2022-2023 window before the taxation event.

b) Recent "Yes/No" price iterations from prediction markets are massively limited in scope, and "Above $X" formats are simply UX-heavy. HIP-4 is a good example of shipping infra to meet the meta, with a trade-off of lacking end-user experience. Especially when so much can be done on the backend side to increase position customizability and support fast-paced trading in binaries.

c) Much more expressive crypto infrastructure and sharp engineering is needed to streamline trading in a format that has found PMF partially, but still has room to grow and beat perps the way perps once beat spot. One-touch options are the natural next frontier in binary payoffs.

@Czar102 @koolkrypto223

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@0xForecaster @milianstx our price prediction market can be described as quite groundbreaking in terms of innovation @touch_market

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@NZ377_ @touch_market The CEO + CTO alone have 6 national STEM olympiad medals under their belts, if anyone wonders how this is possible.

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@NZ377_ If there's any clear winner in the price prediction UX race, it's @touch_market

You can bet any duration and any price level you want, enabling ultimately customizable positions, which sets TM a light-year ahead of HIP-4 and PM/Kalshi.

[Temu Capital @andy_0dte]

@stalequant cool tool to see ADL queue in HIP-3 mkts

https://t.co/joDQ12WZQy by @ringwraith10

not especially a contagion detecting tool, but helpful for evaluation of a venue as such

[Mushtaq Bilal, PhD @MushtaqBilalPhD]

Sci-Hub is an evil website that pirated 85M+ research papers and made them freely available

And now they've added AI to their database to make Sci-Bot.

It answers your questions using latest, full-text articles.

But DO NOT use it. We should all try to make billion-dollar academic publishers richer.

I'm putting the link below so you know how to avoid it.

[Touchmarket @touch_market]

Introducing Touchmarket Beta on mobile.

The cleanest trading experience you'll ever have at your fingertips.
The trade doesn't stop when your laptop closes.

[Czar102 @Czar102]

You got it all wrong.

You don't need an army of AI agents monitoring. You just have to force yourself to ignore three types of projects to be 99.9% safe:
- where you don't have all the control (where admins/anyone can change parameters that will hurt you)
- bloated smart contracts (includes having dependencies)
- unaudited smart contracts

Every one of these will add a 50%+ chance the product will be hacked within the next 5 years.

If what you're touching gets hacked, you're touching the wrong things. The ecosystem is open so there will always be hacks, because there will be actors falling into the above categories.

YOU have to choose to live in the world where all of them get ignored. YOU have to ignore them.
If you choose to farm points instead, well, that's on you. Don't come crying on X.