#PayTm#IPO#startupindia
An attempt on valuing a company like Paytm with multiple businesses and rev lines.
Paytm raised 18300 Crores at a $20 billion valuation. As of Jan 20th, the company was valued at ~$8.7 billion, which is a >50% discount to the original IPO listing price.
It’s been a minute.
2015–2018
- Exited FreeCharge. Spent time learning and investing.
- Pondered about: Why can't trust be rewarded? Started with $1M of personal capital.
- Launched CRED to reward people for paying credit card bills on time.
2019–2025
- Built a system run by a team that values ownership, judgment, and craft.
- Grew from 0 to 17M members by aligning incentives with behaviour.
- Built several products during COVID lockdowns.
- Raised $900M+ from global investors. Did 4 ESOP buybacks.
- Made Indiranagar and IPL ads slightly more interesting.
- Received a full stack of regulatory licences.
- Lost 35 kilos.
- Scaled from 0 to ~$325M ( ~₹3,200 crore) in annual revenue across payments, lending, insurance, commerce, wealth, and credit cards.
2026
- First profitable quarter (yet occasionally asked what our business model is)
- Raised another $900M from Meta in primary and secondary capital.
- Announcing our 5th ESOP buyback.
Today
CRED is ready for its next phase. I am stepping back and @miten steps in as interim CEO, partnered with an incredibly talented team. He has been heading strategy and finance and suffering me since 2020. I’m stepping away from the operating role and will continue as a shareholder. My commitment doesn’t change. Just the role.
Extremely grateful to our members, partners, regulators, and investors who made this possible. And to our board, Shailendra, Micky, Saurabh for their extraordinary conviction.
Team CRED, I’ll still expect you to be a 10x version of yourselves.
As for me, I’ll be joining Meta to lead WhatsApp globally.
Meta comes in as a minority investor in CRED. No access to member data.
While it’s come very far, the delta between WhatsApp today and its full potential is massive. I look forward to working with Mark, Chris, and the leadership across Meta for the next step in WhatsApp’s journey. Will, thank you for scaling something the world relies on quietly, and for making this transition smooth.
Onwards.
Did you know that China's economy grew at an average rate of ~19%, when their GDP was $3.55 trillion in 2007?
In 2007, China's GDP stood at $3.55 trillion, roughly equivalent to India's present GDP. This period marked the beginning of a significant global recession, the 2008 financial crisis, which had devastating impacts on economies worldwide. The crisis, triggered by the collapse of the housing market in the United States, led to widespread financial instability, unemployment, and economic contraction. This situation can be likened to the recent COVID-19 crisis that brought the global economy to a standstill.
Despite the global slowdown, China managed to double its GDP in the next 3.5 years, showcasing an extraordinary economic resilience and growth trajectory. Several key factors contributed to this aggressive growth:
--Massive Infrastructure Investment: China invested heavily in infrastructure projects, including roads, railways, and airports, which spurred economic activity and job creation.
--Export-Led Growth: The country maintained a strong focus on exports, capitalizing on its manufacturing prowess to become the world's factory.
--Government Stimulus: The Chinese government introduced significant fiscal stimulus packages to support businesses and boost consumer spending, including a RMB¥ 4 trillion (US$586 billion) package in 2008.
--Technological Advancements: Investment in technology and innovation played a crucial role in enhancing productivity and driving economic growth.
While India's Reserve Bank (RBI) currently maintains a cautious stance on interest rates due to inflation concerns, it's worth noting China's approach during its high-growth period. China's real interest rates, defined as their (lending) interest rate adjusted for inflation, were predominantly negative during this period (-0.2% in 2007, -2.3% in 2008, 5.5% in 2009, and -1% in 2010). This pattern reflects a growth-focused monetary policy, which, along with increasing foreign exchange reserves, helped the Chinese yuan appreciate by about 15% against the US dollar between 2007 and 2010.
In India's current context, while food inflation significantly contributes to overall inflation (8.7% in May vs. overall inflation of 4.7%), it's important to recognize that food demand is relatively inelastic. This means a reduction in interest rates is unlikely to significantly impact food demand*, and therefore inflation. Other factors, such as supply chain inefficiencies and the impact of weather, including monsoon delays, play substantial roles in driving food inflation, as seen in our earlier posts on this topic**.
While India's current 7% GDP growth rate is commendable, it's imperative to explore avenues for accelerated growth as the global interest rate cycle begins to reverse. To eventually catch up with China's economic prowess, India must consider bold, yet calculated economic strategies that balance growth with inflation management. The lessons from China's explosive growth period offer valuable insights for crafting India's economic future.
#EconomicGrowth #IndianEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #RBI #FoodInflation #EconomicResilience #ChinaGrowthModel
*https://t.co/0DxT6ezw5m
**https://t.co/tKg7wjuTxT
@AdityaRajKaul You totally got it wrong.
Rizwan prays when it’s the time for Namaz- Muslims do it in offices, parks, airports, wherever they are when it’s the time to offer. What happened in the stadium was to instil fear and not out of anyone’s beliefs.
first video from the @allinsummit - in conversation with @elonmusk
available exclusively on @X
(0:00) Besties welcome Elon via Starlink
(05:31) Ukraine and Starlink
(19:10) green shoots of @X
(22:24) the creator economy and optimizing the @x experience
(26:43) the ADL, free speech, and advocating for peace
(32:41) China
(37:20) AI
(44:30) where are we with self-driving?
and MUCH more