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Lifelong student of markets. Writer

[Vebjørn @VJNCapital]

Calling it now. $MA at 24 P/FCF is the bottom

This is getting too ridiculous

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

You can buy WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Threads, Messenger, one of the best ad machines on earth, and a massive AI distribution platform for 18x earnings!

Meanwhile people are paying 30 to 50x for stocks with a fraction of the moat.

$META is undervalued.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

I present to you

"Make the 1970s Great Again" featuring "Too Late" by Carole King

Find your 1970s crisis vibe

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Worth reading. A discussion of why oil prices have yet to surge into the $200 range despite the Strait of Hormuz now having been closed for 2.5 months.

[LEAPTRADER @LEAPTRADER_]

Leopold Aschenbrenner posted this about a year ago.

Since then, his fund has gone from $225 million to $5.5 billion in roughly one year.

He’s outperforming many of the best traders in history and in 1 week we find out ALL his newest plays. No doubt it will move stocks!

[Kevin C. Smith, CFA @crescatkevin]

Free cash flow race to the bottom.

[Leopold Aschenbrenner @leopoldasch]

Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI.

I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project.

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead

[shirish @shiri_shh]

we are so cooked 😭

these guys let Claude run wild on Wall St.

Look at this insider trades scanner it built in 4 mins that:

> reads every SEC filing where execs buy their own stock
> flags clusters where multiple execs buy at once
> emails me the top 3 trades every morning before the open

[Karim Fawaz @karim__fawaz]

Assuming my math is correct, based on vessel tracking, the US exported more crude and refined products last week than Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran *combined*.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:

1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle
5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now.
6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix
7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax
8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time
9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade
10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff
11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now
12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google.
13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it.
14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america
15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild.
16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act)
17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon.
18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well.
19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important
20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff
21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight?
22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks
23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long
24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition
25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck
26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors.
27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains
28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity.
29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine.
30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE

Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

The holy grail of finance books that are must reads

> The Outsiders
> Den of Thieves
> Barbarians at the Gate
> More Money than God
> Lords of Finance
> The House of Morgan
> Snowball: Warren Buffett
> Poor Charlie's Almanac
> The House of Rothschild
> Predator's Ball
> Smartest Guys in the Room
> When Genius Failed
> The Man Who Solved the Market
> Sam Walton: Made in America
> Cable Cowboy
> Alchemy of Finance
> Invisible Child
> War and Gold
> The Ascent of Money
> King of Capital
> The Caesars Palace Coup
> Titan: John D Rockefeller
> The Big Short

[Poplicola @selectsand]

@martinvars A fun thing to ask AI is "What are the odds China will beat Poland's GDP per capita anytime this century?"

Roughly no chance.

[Esther & Michael @SuperLuckeee]

BE spiked $10 to $220.
ASTS spiked $2 to $120.
LITE spiked $35 to $980.
IONQ spiked $3 to $84.

Here's 20 more AI stocks that hasn't ran yet ⬇️

[Canadian Dividend Investing @CDInewsletter]

A complete list of the 65 monthly-paying dividend stocks on the TSX. For those of you who like your income to come 12 times a year instead of 4.

[Alex Younger @AlextheYounga]

@charliebilello I'll never forget this one.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low.

We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street.

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

$MU Holy Shit

Micron Profit >> Amazon's by 2027

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Since the start of the Iran war...
Sulfur: +57%
Jet Fuel: +52%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +48%
Gasoline: +36%
Fertilizer: +35%
Heating Oil: +32%
WTI Crude Oil: +28%
Brent Crude Oil: +26%
European Natural Gas: +21%
Coal: +12%
Palm Oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +8%
Rice: +7%
S&P 500: +4%
$VIX: -12%