Arjun Balaji

investing/research @paradigm, technology, history, strategy games, boston sports. optimist

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@deltatraderXBT @PredMTrader Estimated settlement pnl, not incl fees, hedges etc

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@Foster @PredMTrader Almost all of the copies (~93% of contract volume) didn't include CIN since it was after the game ended

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

RT @alanapalmedo: Fired up to back this team of killers @adamblake @OverReactor1776 and @nickporadek to solve the hardest physical constrai…

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@BLESSEDJINGTAO Without any spoilers, highly recommend watching Grizzly Man (2005), one of the best documentaries ever: https://t.co/OX0AW3qNjX

[Nous Research @NousResearch]

Introducing Arete-27B: Qwen3.8-27B, post-trained to reinforce Western values.

Chinese open models are currently the strongest available, but they ship with state-aligned behavior in the weights. We built an 803-prompt eval across seven value categories, including freedom of expression, democracy, and privacy, and measured how often a model adopts China’s party line.

After fine-tuning on roughly 53 million tokens, Arete-27B's propaganda rate fell from 22% to 1%, in line with the Western models we tested. Its Hermes Bench score shows no significant performance tradeoffs.

The values in an open model are one fine-tune away.

Our eval, weights, and training data are available now along with the full blog post: https://t.co/iAOANQTVZ6

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@JBSDC Polls missing by 4-5% is not directionally right, it’s wrong. Funny irony in this cycle where Dems seem to wrongly trust polls more (due to confirmation bias) and Republicans seem to wrongly shade the markets (due to cope).

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@justbetjosh @haralabob Anonymized takers are consistently filled worse than fair btw (check historical)

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

I recently got to interview Robert Caro, who is my favorite author of all time.

This gave me the excuse to reread his biographies of Lyndon Johnson and Robert Moses, and to compile my prep notes into this video essay.

These guys pulled off some truly incredible schemes.

[Will Manidis @WillManidis]

i try to not place much credence in using religious metaphors to understand what is happening inside of the intelligence trade, but the survival rates of adherents to prophets that eschew any notion of conversion and promise eternal reward to only early believers is basically 0

[Matt Huang @matthuang]

Meta + Paradigm open challenge to optimize Muse Spark

Top prize is $50K + an H200 signed by Meta team

[Iain MacMillan @IainMacBets]

No exaggeration, this guy might be the best interview in pro sports right now

[Georgios Konstantopoulos @gakonst]

all that is to say that the current @tempo team has built the most performant and used code across every layer of the crypto / stablecoin fintech stack - every product you see uses some of our libraries

our ideas have diffused across the entire ecosystem in ways we never expected

this team ships the most ambitious software, the fastest and with the least bugs than any other team

this is the team that will realize the crypto vision that attracted me and many others over the last 10+ years

crypto for the real world

tempo

[Matt Huang @matthuang]

Congrats to Ravi and John on their first acquisition… excited for Paradigm to support their deployment of AI-native culture and tech

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@sur4js Telling my son this

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@andrew__reed Coach

[Dill @dillonrolnick]

sharing my thoughts on our recent fundraise.

we did alright for a couple of goofballs

https://t.co/nVN3ahGYRX

[Roman Storm 🇺🇸 🌪️ @rstormsf]

October 5, 2026
A new letter was filed today by SDNY:
https://t.co/PE1bvvcs9V

The DOJ is still coming after me with everything it has. They really want to see me convicted.

It has been 1,139 days since my nightmare began.
They arrested me when my daughter was just 3 years old, and escorted her out of our home.
She is 6 now, and I don't know how I would ever explain to her that I'm being sent to prison for decades - for writing code.

Meanwhile, today the Department of the Treasury has admitted it was wrong about the mixer rules, citing a "chilling effect on legitimate activity."
Source: https://t.co/LSPO8YAL6L

Yet in my case, the DOJ argued at the April 9, 2026 hearing:
"...even the legitimate transactions that went through Tornado Cash became illegitimate because they also facilitated the criminal ends of the money transmitting of the money laundering and of the sanctions evasion..."
(Docket 290, p.43 https://t.co/G0BGN5WR5K)

The non-criminal branch of the U.S. government says: it's bad policy.
The criminal branch says: every transaction is a crime.

The Crypto War is still being waged against developers and open source, cementing an extremely dangerous precedent in the United States of America.

[Arjun Balaji @arjunblj]

@andrewmccalip @hudzah @AnthropicAI first week and he’s already asking office manager where the deuterium goes 💀