Arrow of Apollo

Nuance is dead. #Bitcoin. Coffee. Energy. Markets.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@tleilax___ To be clear, Ethiopia was already suffering from fuel shortages. When I was there in late last year, some of the queues at stations were 12-14 hours long. The situation now is threatening exports at a critical time.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@alexbhturnbull Do kwon defending his peg seems more apt.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@JavierBlas Can this pipeline handle heavier crude? What is the general outlook for heavy crude considering the US is mostly producing the light stuff.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@ncitayim @Bacharelhalabi @aydincalik90 These curtailments, are they something which can be brought back online to full potential or is there a risk of permanent damage to output?

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@kjokisch @Judy_Ganes @AlbFerracuti @F4tailhook By this same logic you would have expected the inverse to happen when tariffs were implemented.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@strandfund Yea sure but my point was more about a lack of noticeable impact on price. The market doesn't believe it's a big deal as of yet. But perhaps that's the opportunity.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@rrhizome @tx_marcelo @realDonaldTrump Punitive tariffs such as those in Brazil are not yet exempt. So the new tariff rate for Brazilian coffee is 40%, down from 50% as the reciprocal 10% tariff is being removed.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@DemilsonJr2 Price will be the arbiter.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@saopaulo24747 @RochaBanks Stooges indeed although I wouldn't necessarily call them facts but they are important signals for the market.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@strandfund So what would your expectation of damage be?

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@strandfund Maybe I’m just too early but this market has been so fragile recently I would expect a black swan event to be translated to price quickly.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@strandfund Yea I get that but I think you could look at the ‘21 frosts as a closer analogy. Prices moved 25% the first week. This typhoon was forecasted but underestimated. Covid was a step into the unknown.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@ruskitrader Ask yourself which trader is paying 12c for logistics 🤔

[Ben Noll @BenNollWeather]

New ECMWF guidance shows a rapid turn from La Niña to El Niño in early 2026.

Unusually warm water in the West Pacific could soon be transported eastward, sparking El Niño.

It's early, but if this happens, global temperatures and moisture levels will rise next year into 2027.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@BenNollWeather Such an amazing part of the country. Only better drive is the one to Milford Sound.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@TimMuirhead FWIW I was of the belief that tariffs should have been bearish after the initial volatility shock.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@TimMuirhead A counterpoint: by the same logic, we should have expected tariffs to be bearish when introduced. Price action showed no sign of that. The C contract being a US based product may mean more supply is available for the C if tariffs are reduced.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

A detente between Trump and Lula was always a termination risk factor for KC. However, the pressure points of previous weeks remain. Z/H spread key to watch.

[Arrow of Apollo @Arrow_Apollo]

@CharlieSte4536 @optima_t Precisely. And hey, you did say you were looking forward to the shit talking today.