Arthur Shapiro

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@financialjuice He has not say anything close to that. Nothing about peace deal being likely. Watch for yourself: https://t.co/JrQAjexTuS

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@LiveSquawk https://t.co/JrQAjexTuS

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@LiveSquawk He has not said anything like this. I just watched his interview from today in Ukrainian.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@RedboxWire He has not said anything close to this. I just watched his interview from today.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@yarotrof @WSJ The article ignores the top objective of Iran's leadership, deter future assassination attacks. The only way they can accomplish that is by inflicting severe economic/political pain to make such attack unpalatable. Rational option is to fight even if the odds of victory are low

[Diana Nerozzi @diana_nerozzi]

Trump aims to shift power from China by forging better ties with Russia via Ukraine deal.

A Trump admin official told me finding a “way to align closer with Russia” could create “a different power balance with China that could be very, very beneficial.”

https://t.co/Plr1fFfm0G

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

The most common reasons for soldiers to go AWOL or desert are conflicts with their commanders, exhaustion, a psychological breakdown through the fear of death, and the constant constraint of resources
https://t.co/sjt6zoyAnS

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

‘The Russians are privately mocking Trump over his naivety about Putin’s intentions. Putin doesn’t want to end the war.’
https://t.co/MsQoN3GNdZ

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

So how is then US pressuring Zelensky to make a deal?

[Savchenko Volodymyr @SavchenkoReview]

🇺🇦🇺🇸 The US is not threatening to stop arms supplies so that Ukraine makes concessions in the negotiations, — Zelensky

💬 We have not received such information from the US that we will not receive weapons. Today's war is already significant pressure on the Europeans, because they pay for American weapons. I am grateful that Washington did not block this opportunity.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@DAlperovitch People are not being trained on how to overcome their cognitive biases.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

“Lots of us were uneasy, but I guess everyone decided that the safest thing was to agree with the president,” said one senior official.
https://t.co/x1QNwlRmsJ

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

The upbeat diplomatic buzzwords belie the impasse in a peace process that many observers, and even some participants, said has turned into political theater.
https://t.co/kB396BkD5Q via @WSJ

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@shustry Clearly Putin is not interested in making a deal. Why can't Ukrainian officials just say that? Is Trump really going to stop selling weapons for Ukraine during an election year given that it would be very unpopular in the US?

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

The talks - the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week - are "negotiation theatre", one European intelligence chief said.
https://t.co/GIKgN8ieet

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

“Everyone is saying how productive the talks are, but in fact, everything has come to a halt,” the person close to the talks said last week.
https://t.co/js3vkzwF9G

[Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll]

An unexpectedly positive spin by Ukr diplomatic source on Geneva talks. He tells me Kyiv understands day 1 will be loud. “There’ll be threats, an attempt to scare Europe — but our info is it’s bluff.” Expectation is tone will turn more constructive by day two or at the next meeting in March. Then "remaining technical details will be finalised" — and it will be up to the presidents to decide whether to take the deal over the line.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@OTregub The question is why does Ukrainian leadership believes that there is a real chance of making a peace deal with Putin? Many western journalists are quoting sources from the negotiating team saying this. Here is one example:
https://t.co/exRr7h65dg

[Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll]

An unexpectedly positive spin by Ukr diplomatic source on Geneva talks. He tells me Kyiv understands day 1 will be loud. “There’ll be threats, an attempt to scare Europe — but our info is it’s bluff.” Expectation is tone will turn more constructive by day two or at the next meeting in March. Then "remaining technical details will be finalised" — and it will be up to the presidents to decide whether to take the deal over the line.

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

Putin's hits on Ukraine's energy infrastructure show he sees "peace" talks as a cover https://t.co/tLBauumVEI

[Arthur Shapiro @art11s]

@olliecarroll Why do Ukrainian officials believe Putin is interested in making a deal at all?

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

.@olliecarroll: “An article in the Financial Times alleging plans for quick and dirty elections under American pressure caused a stir in Kyiv. The article appeared to get a few things wrong. The push for quick elections, for example, is actually coming from Volodymyr Zelensky’s own team. In any case, there is no concrete deal to present to an electorate, nor, just as crucially, any agreed sequencing. But the story was enough to put deal optimists on the defensive and slow the talks down.” https://t.co/vmC2tJtz2X