Artur Mendonça

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[Logan Kilpatrick @OfficialLoganK]

My conversation with @JeffDean, @koraykv, @NoamShazeer, and @OriolVinyalsML (the Gemini co-leads) about the current state of Gemini, how we got here, and where we go next : )

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

@alliekmiller Jevons Paradox applied to time.

[Skott @skottrun]

Criei essa ferramenta inspirado pelo @brunoclz para fiscalizar supersalários do judiciário.

Pode ser interessante com a discussão atual no STF, se tiverem interesse libero amanhã no Github.

Postarei as funcionalidades nos comentários.

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

@Tecnoblog O mundo tentando chegar ao 5g e o Brasil preocupado em substituir os radinhos de pilha por celulares...

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

When foreigners attend our great colleges & want to stay in the U.S., they should not be thrown out of our country.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Interesting New Facebook Patent: $FB

Allowing general users to turn photos into ads.

ie. Users would now monetize their "data".

Example: I take a photo of my cool Nike shoes, it auto finds the product and I can tag the product, I assume I could be then paid as a referral.

[Archive: Governor Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo]

Three regions of New York are ready to begin reopening May 15th.

Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and Mohawk Valley have met the 7 metrics required to begin Phase 1 of the reopening plan.

Here's where all the regions of NY currently stand:

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

Generating Irish Folk Songs using Deep Learning! @MIT @MITDeepLearning #introtodeeplearning

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

@proconspoficial Obrigado @proconspoficial ! Fiquei impressionado com vocês serem mais responsiveis do que a @Bauducco !! Procon 10 x Bauducco 0 !!!

[MIT Sloan School of Management @MITSloan]

For data wrapping to work, you need to design products with the “Four As” in mind. @MIT_CISR https://t.co/vRGyM7TWt8

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

Amazing take on global politics!!

[Sarah Tavel @sarahtavel]

Weekly, someone reaches out to me asking for career advice on the decision to go from being an operator to a VC. Thought I’d memorialize it here in case others are curious:

[MIT Sloan School of Management @MITSloan]

These 8 books from MIT Sloan faculty promise to enlighten and delight in equal measure. https://t.co/rnAnIH3g7U

[Artur Mendonça @artur_mendonca]

A presença de #NedStark será lembrada para sempre. E você, para qual personagem que se foi você acenderia sua vela? #PayYourRespects

[Harvard Business School @HarvardHBS]

From understanding financial basics to engaging in #creative problem-solving, here are #business skills that every #engineer needs: https://t.co/hskUYXT4MG

[UPS @UPS]

Our littlest driver-in-training! Share your words of encouragement for Parson using #WishesDelivered ✨✨

[MIT Sloan School of Management @MITSloan]

Zuckerberg, Gates, and Jobs are the exceptions. Most successful founders are middle-aged. https://t.co/1WPLV8nkYB

[MIT Sloan School of Management @MITSloan]

Here’s how 5 of the world’s most successful executives used questions to generate groundbreaking ideas. https://t.co/ahKJV0AxZq