I find it fascinating how many people think this is a bad time to start a company.
Grok 4.7, GPT-6 Sol/Luna, Opus 5.5, Astra, Gemini 3.8 Live, Muse, Instinct, Jev, Agent APIs etc. That's the last 3 weeks (crazy progress on personal agents/voice AI).
Because arbitrage means the same thing trades at 2 prices in 2 markets (and it's your wedge).
And usually you have to hunt for those gaps, because they're rare and they close the moment anyone notices.
What's different now is that they're opening faster than anyone can build into them!
I think this has got to be the greatest time for arbitrage in history.
every enterprise will soon want ai for everything all at once because it will very soon work, and there wont be enough FDEs and consultants to add ai fast enough
“People are working 12 to 13 hours a day just to press enter.”
We are turning an entire generation of technical experts around the world into the equivalent of retirees pushing a button in front of casino slot machines.
Essentially the brain rot of doom scrolling social media is coming for your development team…
This will have lots of long run implications on companies. Most important of which, is that it will make existing moats even more brittle.
The value of automated software is not making the software faster.
It is understanding your intention and making the software BETTER.
Better edge.
Better design.
Better alpha.
But if you don’t slow down and map out your intention, you will just make your shitty code faster.
We built 8090’s Software Factory to do this: when execution is a costless commodity, what really matters?
Over time, companies will realize that it’s:
1. Intention
2. Governance
3. Verification
4. Evidence
This is what will separate orgs consuming tokens and companies encoding their edge. This generally requires top down leadership from the CEO to the CFO/CIO.
Bottoms up tool adoption only increases costs and accelerates slot machine behaviors.
Good luck to all the players.
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI?
I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev
• 20-200x faster
• 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free)
• Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions
AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
AI is progressing very fast.
We must grapple with the reality that modern LLMs can solve problems that large masses of extremely devoted and intelligent humans were unable to solve, and the implications this has on our society. This is the dawn of a new era.
In 2023 I said there would be no more developers by 2028
AI is moving across the threshold now
Next year it will write better code than all but a few of you (I have some awesome followers)
2027 it will instantly generate almost all code
2028 folk will run out of ideas
While the future is arriving faster than our own emotional abilities can process it, I will tell you one thing. DON'T panic. Instead, use this time to learn or create something FASTER.
I think we've reached the point where new AI model releases all kinda blur together.
I honestly can't keep the names straight anymore. It's all numbers, decimals, and words like Pro, Ultra, and Max. At this point half of them sound like energy drinks.
But I actually think that's a good sign. It means we've moved past the phase where the model itself was the product.
I still pay close attention to new models. I've just changed what I'm paying attention to.
2 things I've noticed (maybe you've noticed it too?):
1) I've stopped caring about benchmarks completely.
The only question I ask about a new model now is which of my someday ideas just became a today idea.
What can I build this week that I couldn't last week?
2) The models are turning into a commodity you'll never think about.
In 6-12 months you won't know or care which one you're using, the same way you have no idea which power plant your electricity comes from.
Your agent just grabs whichever is best for the task, switches midtask if it needs to, and never tells you. Being an openai person or a claude person is about to sound as silly as being loyal to one electric company.
I'll still cover the big releases on @startupideaspod, but only when one actually changes what you can build.
Anyway, just kinda venting.
Am I the only one feeling this?
If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.”
What would you show them?
I would show them the chart below.
From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will figure it all out…