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[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Strait Traffic remains resilient

#MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown.

The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.

[عساف @assafsalem]

@jackprandelli Context war analysis etc …logic ?

[عساف @assafsalem]

@nikospoth @Kpler @MarineTraffic War is finished baba Khalas

[Anton Likhodedov @ALikhodedov]

HORMUZ DARK TRANSITS

This is so far the best article on the subject that I have seen. Great job, FT team.

Basically they confirm what @tleilax___ was writing about few days ago:

smaller older tankers belonging to NOCs shuttle through the Strait and do a S2S transfer to a larger tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

Many of my questions answered:

1. "About 15 ships per day are going in and out via the Omani route, protected by US air cover, according to two people with knowledge of the transits, who said most of them were oil tankers."

15 both ways seems much more realistic than 50 that were sometimes mentioned. It does seem that the trackers do not see a bulk of them (e.g. Windward does not track many transfers via Southern Corridor) ... but perhaps they catch these volumes later -

"Since early May, @Kpler tracked roughly 96 million barrels of confirmed non-Iranian crude exports through either: direct Strait of Hormuz transits, or Gulf of Oman export networks"

https://t.co/ZRHS2Ueau9

2. “We are talking a single-lane route with two-way traffic on it with loaded ships who do not have the manoeuvrability, like driving down a country lane at night without your lights on,” said the tanker executive. “We will most likely have an accident.” The route, which hugs the rocky Omani coastline, can be as narrow as 800 metres wide at some points, making it a navigational challenge for large ships. Two-way traffic had been permitted by the US, which had instructed vessels to pass at wider points, one person said.

3. "Energy Aspects, a consultancy, estimated that Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were currently shipping about 3mn barrels of crude a day through the strait."

At the beginning of the month EA was estimating 1mbd of crude and 0.3 mbd of products/LPG of non-iranian flows.

https://t.co/vRYEHAuRM9

So, taking into account iranian export reduction, the increase is probably up to 1.5-2mbd?

Which is meaningful but still far from a problem solver - we are still sitting on a very large deficit.

Few important questions
- will this increased flow translate into production restart?

- wonder if demand destruction estimates would be adjusted downwards in light of the higher flows ...

[Papa León XIV @Pontifex_es]

Mañana comenzará el Mundial, y muchos estarán atentos a los partidos. El fútbol nos recuerda algo que no debemos olvidar: la vida no es una carrera para lucirse en solitario, sino un camino que aprendemos a recorrer juntos. Quien no sabe pasar el balón, aunque tenga talento, todavía no ha entendido el juego. Y quien no sabe vivir con los demás y para los demás, todavía no ha entendido la vida. #ViajeApostólico

[Tottenham Hotspur @SpursOfficial]

📱 New message: Andy Robertson

[عراق اوبزيرفر 2 @iraqobserver2]

لحظة وفاة شخص غطّت دماؤه أرضيةَ مطار الكويت إثر القصف الإيراني
#عراق_اوبزيرفر #العراق #إيران #الكويت

[Tottenham Hotspur @1882_Tottenham]

Winning in Europe isn’t for everyone

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels."

[Harry Kane @HKane]

Congratulations to everyone at the club especially the fans - massive fight and result on the final day! 💪

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

💯

[Tottenham Hotspur • On This Day @THFCOnThisDay]

↩️ 𝗢𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗗𝗮𝘆 • 𝟭𝟵𝟲𝟯

Spurs became the first British club to win a European trophy in 1963, beating Atlético Madrid 5-1 in Rotterdam to lift the European Cup Winners’ Cup.

Dyson and Greaves both scored twice as White scored the other in a historic night for Spurs.

[عساف @assafsalem]

@anasalhajji I think you have decided the path of what ifs, why nots, maybes, and imagine….instead of the path of facts and info you had before the war

[TyC Sports @TyCSports]

🪄 DOS MINUTOS Y MEDIO DE PURO ARTE PARA LA HISTORIA ⚽

🔙 Un día como el de hoy, pero de 1989, Diego Maradona realizaba esta mítica entrada en calor en la previa del encuentro entre Bayern Munich y Napoli, por las semifinales de la Copa UEFA.

[Fundamental Blasters @FundamentalGems]

Singapore’s foreign minister on Straits. A must listen for information on Straits.

[James Bull @thejbullmarket]

The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure.

80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted.

🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute
📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus
🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage
🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute
🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass
🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage

Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0.

With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit.

This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.

[The Footy Feed @TheFootyFeed]

🚨🗣️ TV commentator: "Arsenal don’t play football. They play a different sport. Young fans don’t switch on the TV to watch Arsenal; they want to watch football." "Set-piece goals, zero creativity, fouls and time-wasting when they’re in the lead. These players have been brainw...

[عساف @assafsalem]

@LogWeaver While people like this are living in denial.

[عساف @assafsalem]

@greg16676935420 Amateur hour analysis