Comstock Lode

Participant in $BTC-backed altruism and free market for self sovereignty; investor of Tesla philanthropy; data creates wealth.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@EXCAVO I comb both sides, alternating the day.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@MonetaryWonk 100%!

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@TheBTCTherapist Artificial Intelligence has us by the damn balls.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@AndrewBurchwell This would be a good cutting of legislation.

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

I'm exploring with Claude a DCA and small leverage strat with Claude using the deviation and daily slopes from the power law.

This chart shows the growth in Bitcoin terms achieved by a strategy based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of Bitcoin’s local power-law slopes. The model identifies different dynamic market regimes and assigns an actionable exposure to each state, ranging from a cash/Bitcoin combination to full Bitcoin and modest leverage (~1.5×).

Importantly, the results are based not only on backtesting but on a walk-forward test from 2014 to the present, where each decision uses only information available at that time.

The vertical axis shows how many BTC-equivalent units are obtained starting from 1 BTC, while the horizontal axis shows the maximum drawdown exposure to achieve that result. The turquoise curve represents the dynamic HMM strategy; the orange curve shows constant leverage as a benchmark.

The key result is that the regime strategy can generate substantially greater Bitcoin accumulation for a given level of historical drawdown than simply maintaining constant leverage. This suggests that Bitcoin’s changing local slopes may contain useful information for dynamically adjusting exposure.

An BTC balance of 70 % and 30 % cash is optimal.

These remain historical walk-forward results, not a guarantee of future performance, and real trading would also be affected by costs, execution, financing, and future regime changes.

This indicator will be accessible in the Scientific Bitcoin Observatory (with clearl indication on the current regime) in the Benefactor donation tier.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@FinFreedom414 @JoeConsorti Excellent chart.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@lopp Haha, this is poetic.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@saylor @adam3us That's a good one, Michael.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@TheBabylonBee God save the plebs.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@halstonvalencia I wonder what commodity/asset won't depreciate over time, Halston? 🤠

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@badcharts1 Excellent, Patrick.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@ColumbusBitcoin Going to be a blast. TY

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@adam3us 100%! Thanks for this.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@mykopikid @jamesob @BikesandBitcoin NVK is today's sophisticated version of Bitconnect.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@BitsagaRob @SeedSigner Thanks. @grok please summarize in non technical speak the above related to seed phrase generation.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@olvelez007 @theretailbull @saifedean Great advice, Oliver!

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@DrStarHeartsong Very nice, Dr Heartsong!

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@LinaSeiche @nayibbukele Excellent vid, Lina

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@TulsiGabbard Let's dig his grave for him, Tulsi.

[Comstock Lode @AssetsBTC]

@MonetaryWonk That'd be nice, but the Israeli gov't literally wants to see this nation destroyed and they want its land to boot.