Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Arbitrary performance throttling of dual-use communications infrastructure creates substantial counterparty and operational risk. For institutional allocators and enterprise clients relying on SpaceX ($SPCX) and Starlink, mission reliability and contractual predictability are paramount. When critical connectivity is subject to discretionary degradation, it directly impairs core defense capabilities and undermines broader European security frameworks. This unpredictability warrants a thorough reassessment of vendor exposure, corporate governance standards, and the strategic urgency for sovereign European infrastructure.
We’re hosting a happy hour this Thursday (Oct 15) in NYC, bringing together top engineers from OpenAI, DeepMind, Jane Street, Jump Trading, and more.
Drinks, food, poker, and good company at @nova_ai’s HQ.
A few spots left — reach out if you’re interested.
Die Kosten des Bahnhofs Stuttgart 21 liegen mit 14,5 Mrd. Euro höher als der Aufbau der geopolitisch transformativen Satellitenkonstellation Starlink mit etwa 12 Mrd. Dollar. Stuttgart 21 hat 23 Jahre Bauzeit, der Aufbau von Starlink dauerte 6 Jahre. Keine Pointe.
Das "Schönreden" einer unterdurchschnittlichen Leistung der deutschen Nationalmannschaft symbolisiert eines der großen Probleme in Deutschland: Worauf wollen sie hier "stolz" sein, @_FriedrichMerz ? Wo war der echte "Biss" der Nationalmannschaft, endlich auch wieder in wichtigen Ko-Spielen siegen zu wollen?
🚨 Anthropic just showed a 27-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.
Taught by the people who built it.
Free. No registration. No paywall.
I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.
Watch it and bookmark it now.
$40M raised — Seed + Series A — to build the frontier AI platform for SAP.
Series A led by @chemistry, Seed by @Accel, with @conviction and @SAPdotiO as strategic backer. Fortune covered the story today.
I co-invented SAP HANA with Hasso Plattner. I led SAP's largest practice as Global CTO at Accenture. I joined Nova as co-founder in autumn 2024 because I saw a generational shift in enterprise software again.
We fully focused our agentic AI platform on SAP. It is now in productive use at the world's largest enterprises — tripling SAP team productivity, reducing custom code to differentiating process logic, built by leading minds from Google DeepMind and Meta AI.
The next chapter of SAP starts now.
I'm thrilled to announce @nova_ai's $40M funding across a Series A led by @chemistry and a Seed led by @Accel, with participation from @conviction and SAP's venture arm https://t.co/UuQkPJw9H0.
$40M raised — Seed + Series A — to build the frontier AI platform for SAP.
Series A led by @chemistry, Seed by @Accel, with @conviction and @SAPdotiO as strategic backer. Fortune covered the story today.
I co-invented SAP HANA with Hasso Plattner. I led SAP's largest practice as Global CTO at Accenture. I joined Nova as co-founder in autumn 2024 because I saw a generational shift in enterprise software again.
We fully focused our agentic AI platform on SAP. It is now in productive use at the world's largest enterprises — tripling SAP team productivity, reducing custom code to differentiating process logic, built by leading minds from Google DeepMind and Meta AI.
The next chapter of SAP starts now.
Instead of watching Netflix tonight, watch this 2-hour Stanford lecture.
You’ll learn more about how ChatGPT, Claude, and other LLMs are built than most people at top AI companies learn in years.
Most people are only getting a fraction of the value they could be getting from AI tools. It's a huge "capabilities overhang".
Along with the amazing Cat Goetze and Parth Patil, I've created a @MasterClass that quickly shows you how to operate at the scale of a small team with a set of easy-to-use AI tools.
Check out the link below.
"more than twice the speed" is underselling Haiku tbh
built a way to directly compare Sonnet v Haiku 4.5 and it's roughly 3.5x faster, but the UX feels SO much better because Haiku stays inside the "flow window".
obviously end to end latency varies a lot so Ant can't report a real number without production usage but you should try heads up comparisons
„Die Bundesbank hat nun festgestellt, dass der finanzpolitische Spielraum von rund 70 Milliarden Euro, der im Jahr 2025 durch das Schuldenpaket im Kernhaushalt entsteht, in Höhe von 56 Milliarden Euro für konsumtive und Transferausgaben genutzt wird.“ https://t.co/FQm2YmKhUX