Ballsakos

Crypto

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

This is the first time ever that there's a strong weekly bullish divergence on $ETH.

It's on both the RSI and the MACD.

The first time ever.

A strong weekly candle is signaling that there's demand coming into the markets.

I have a hard time not becoming bullish with these data points.

[Ballsakos @ballsakos]

@XForceGlobal 👍🏻👍🏻

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Generational entry loading on $NFLX? 🍿

[sunnydecree @sunnydecree]

BITCOIN vs. iShares Tech-Software Sector ETF

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

The Netherlands is about to commit financial self-destruction. Their parliament just passed a 36% tax on unrealized gains for investments.

This will cause wealthy people to move to another tax jurisdiction. People will avoid launching a new business. Stock market investing will dry up.

There is too much downside risk, very little upside potential. The govt is confiscating most of the potential upside, but leaving the investor with the downside risk.

The politicians know this, they have discussed it and they are concerned about it. But they did it anyways to close a short term budget gap of roughly $2 billion. As with other countries that attempted a wealth tax, it will likely backfire and result in less tax collected after wealthy people leave.

The results will be so negative, the govt will reverse course within a few years. But by then the damage is already done.

[Stefan Willems (Beurs/Expat) @FinanceFilosoof]

Ik hou van Nederland. Maar ik zou er vandaag niet kunnen wonen.

De reden? De nieuwe box 3-wetgeving waarbij ongerealiseerde meerwaarden vanaf 2028 belast worden tegen 36%.

Dat dit voorstel door de Tweede Kamer is geraakt, verbaast me oprecht. Elke econoom weet wat dit op lange termijn doet. Het ontmoedigt investeringen, remt kapitaalstromen af en straft risico nemen af. En dat is dodelijk voor groei en innovatie.

Maar het meest fundamentele probleem?

Dat is dat je belastingen moet betalen op niet-gerealiseerde meerwaarden tegen een tarief van 36%. Iemand die op een portefeuille van 500.000 euro eens een goed jaar heeft en 20% winst maakt, mag meerdere procenten van zijn portefeuille afgeven aan de staat om die factuur te kunnen betalen. Je moet eens berekenen hoeveel van je vermogen je jaarlijks moet afgeven aan de staat in zo'n geval. Insane! En dan heb ik het nog niet over het papierwerk.

Het is nu aan Nederland om die wet tegen te houden. De wet moet immers eerst nog de Eerste Kamer passeren. En daar moet men toch ook beseffen dat een belasting op niet-gerealiseerde meerwaarden vooral welvaart kost en de welvaartstaart voor iedereen kleiner maakt.

Wie echt houdt van Nederland zou deze wet, die ondernemerschap fnuikt, moeten tegenhouden. Als binnenkort Nederlanders verhuizen naar België om fiscale redenen in plaats van naar Dubai, zou dat de beste Belgenmop zijn in jaren.

Zelfs in ons land hebben we genoeg verstand om te beseffen dat zo'n belasting een slecht idee is. En dat zegt al veel lieve noorderburen.

[Ashot Gabrelyanov @gabrelyanov]

🇳🇱 Netherlands: 10-Year Crisis in numbers

💸 Foreign Aid: +46% increase (€6.6B)

🏨 Asylum: +127% increase in actual costs (€2.5B+)

The Solution: 36% TAX on unrealized capital gains of citizens.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has announced a 36% tax on UNREALIZED Capital gains.

The rule applies to stocks, ETFs, savings, and crypto. Each year, the government looks at how much your portfolio value increased and taxes that gain at 36%.

Here’s how it works:

If someone invests €100K and by year end the portfolio rises to €140K, they owe tax on the €40K profit even if they didn’t sell anything or take cash out.

After the €1,800 tax free threshold, the taxable gain becomes €38,200. At 36%, that equals €13,752 in tax paid, even though no cash was taken out of the market.

Now imagine the next year markets crash and the same portfolio drops to €60K.

The investor has already paid tax on Year 1 gains but the portfolio is now €40K below the original €100K investment.

No tax is paid in Year 2 because the portfolio fell.

But a €80K loss carry forward is created (from €140K down to €60K). Now extend this one more year:

If the portfolio rises from €60K to €110K, the investor’s portfolio is now above the original €100K investment on paper.

But because there is still €30K of unused carry forward losses left, no tax is paid in Year 3.

3-year outcome:

Original investment: €100K
Year 1 tax paid: €13,752
Year 2 tax paid: €0
Year 3 tax paid: €0

Total taxes paid: €13,752
Portfolio value: €110K

Real net capital after taxes: €96,248

So even though the portfolio shows a €10K profit on paper, the investor is still below the original €100K after taxes already paid earlier.

This creates forced selling risk because investors may need to liquidate assets just to pay taxes on paper gains.

And history shows aggressive capital taxes often trigger capital flight, France saw €200B leave before scrapping its wealth tax, Sweden and Denmark abolished similar systems, and Norway is already seeing wealthy residents relocate after recent tax hikes.

Now the Netherlands is attempting one of the most aggressive unrealized gain tax systems globally.

Few points.

Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains, but no refunds are issued on prior years’ unrealized gains.

It still requires Senate approval before becoming law.If approved by the Senate, the law is scheduled to take effect January 1, 2028

[Ballsakos @ballsakos]

Can't even find a job at McDonald's at this rate🥲

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

You eventually start to realize, no job is safe.

[glassnode @glassnode]

Structural Weakness

Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/zirk4tjzcM

[Jelle @CryptoJelleNL]

Historically, every major $BTC bear market bottomed below the 0.618 Fib retracement from the prior cycle high.

The first bear went much deeper, 64% below the fib, but every cycle since, bottoms have gotten progressively shallower past 0.618 - to the point that the last bear market low formed just 45% below.

0.618 from the current cycle high sits at $57,000.

If Bitcoin bottoms just 30% below the 0.618 retracement this time around, we're still looking at $42,000.

[Sherlock | DeFi Researcher @Sherlockwhale]

BTC/XAU ratio just closed the weekly candle below 15.50 support.

The last two times BTC lost the 15-16 zone on the Gold ratio, the bear market started. It just broke again.

The 15-16 zone on the Bitcoin/Gold ratio is the 2017 cycle top. History on this level is clean. BTC/XAU broke above 15-16 in December 2020. The bull market followed, running the ratio from 16 to 36. It lost this level in June 2022. The bear market followed, dropping $BTC from $30K to $15.5K. It reclaimed this level in Oct 2023. The bull market followed again, running from $28K to $126K.

Three for three. Every major cycle transition in the last eight years was confirmed by this single level. It is the structural line between bull and bear market for Bitcoin priced in real money. Not USD. Not stablecoins. Gold.

We just lost this level for the second time.

The USD chart at $69K is probably making you think this is a dip to buy. But we are looking at another 40-50% drop from here which again confirms my target of $38K being the bottom for bitcoin.

[Ballsakos @ballsakos]

@XForceGlobal BTC $60k already... so fast

[Proton @ProtonPrivacy]

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[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

I just watched $4 billion in silver longs get vaporized in 70 minutes.

$83.75 to $75.15. Fastest wipeout I’ve ever seen.

CNBC is already running the “bubble burst” narrative. Bloomberg too. They want you scared. They want you out.

But nobody’s talking about what happened in Shanghai during that exact same window.

While American traders panic-dumped at $75, Chinese buyers were paying $90. Ninety. For the same metal. The premium didn’t shrink during the crash—it widened.

Let that sink in.

This wasn’t a top. This was a heist.

I’ve been in this game long enough to know what a liquidity vacuum looks like. There were zero bids between $83 and $76. The algos pulled everything. Price didn’t fall—it teleported. And the second it hit $75, physical demand stepped in like it was Christmas morning.

Here’s the part that should terrify you: China locks silver exports in 72 hours. January 1st. Export licenses only. They control 70% of global supply. COMEX is down 70% on inventory. London’s vaults are bleeding. And Elon Musk just tweeted “this is not good” about the shortage.

The gold-silver ratio is 60:1. Historical average is 30. That’s $150 silver just to normalize.

Everyone’s calling this 1980. It’s not. The Hunts were speculators playing paper games. This is industrial demand crashing into empty vaults. Solar panels don’t negotiate. AI chips don’t wait.

Retail just handed their silver to sovereign wealth funds at a 15% discount.

And most of you have no idea what’s about to happen.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full story here - https://t.co/kvwWXKT6H5

[Ballsakos @ballsakos]

@XForceGlobal Is there still a big chance that we will get back into the major area of interest? Or will we go up because we have support on the trendline at wave 2?

[XForceGlobal @XForceGlobal]

$BTC
[Bearish Thesis Update]

For the bearish thesis, we are looking for one more established low, to either complete as a Running or Expanded Flat variation.

The bearish thesis is not really even that bearish, as it's really just one last flush before further upside to ATH.

[XForceGlobal @XForceGlobal]

$BTC
[Bullish Thesis Update]

Keeping things in line with the low volatility, if there is a Christmas rally in store for the markets, this is how I would vision it w/ a macro protected low. It's the most realistic approach, in my opinion.

Sideways = very good for altcoins.

[XForceGlobal @XForceGlobal]

$ETH

We're still getting ready for a major reversal on #ETH - it's a matter of 'when' and not 'if'. Expecting a new ATH in the coming months as this pullback is far more controlled than expected.

It's far more corrective than impulsive from the ATH, which is very good.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

PayPal revenues up ~3x.
Stock still down ~80%.

Math is hard. $PYPL 🧮