Bavin Gaker

Read my name again.

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Incredible profile one of the best I have ever read.

Mark will be known as an all time great when it’s all said and done. Even the failures such as the metaverse add to it

[Colossus @colossusmag]

Mark, by @colossusjeremy.

This is a story about the head of history's largest nonterritorial empire, who nonetheless remains a prisoner of his rivals. Has he finally found a way out?

The profile has been nearly a year in the making. Stern interviewed three dozen people, including Zuckerberg, his MMA coach, and his critics and competitors at the frontier AI labs. He spoke with his parents, Karen and Ed, and watched their son get punched in the face.

The story spans Meta HQ in Menlo Park, the Zuckerbergs' homes in Palo Alto and Lake Tahoe, and a party in a Manhattan warehouse with Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet. There is also a sneak peek of Aaron Sorkin's forthcoming sequel about Zuckerberg, sourced via a Hollywood fixer Stern first encountered in Russia.

The result is a profile unlike one you've read before.

https://t.co/uO3zL1HKDl

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Anthropic 800mm over OpenAI doesn’t make sense when you consider most ppl are valuing off of TAM.

OpenAI is going to push out models surpassing Anthropic soon — it’s what happens when you actually book out compute for the future

[@jason @Jason]

My lord, three IPOs are worth more than… all IPOs in the last 45 years of tech 🤯

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

It’s funny how big of a discrepancy there is between the markets and even basic things like model performance.

Like I don’t expect Anthropic to have such a high premium over OpenAI soon.

It’s clear that Bel is vastly superior and has unlocked CL. Just wait

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Terrible take.

“An expense to manage” imagine there’s a bot that has all your preferences and can perfectly find you the cheapest options. Why wouldn’t you use it then?

[Gergely Orosz @GergelyOrosz]

I continue to be amazed how the tech industry doesn't realize that the majority of people won't hand over a digital wallet for AI agents to go and spend on stuff, because buying socks + groceries is not a chore to outsource w/o oversight, but an expense to manage...

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@GergelyOrosz Except groceries are no where near flight level?

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Told you so

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Seeing a lot of things on META here’s the situation:

1) They will have a frontier model soon. They is the exact path they’ve been saying for months

2) That model will immediately be able to serve ads to 3bn+ ppl

3) Mark likes the cash from selling compute in the short term

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@kermankohli Interesting article. What makes you think the memory shortfall will be 10 years even with capacity buildout happening?

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@kermankohli Will be similar to wealth inequality

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@kashyap286 @bryan210780 Revenues have also been growing exponentially?

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@narrativeviews @boxing_alba @edzitron Either way, generating a token still requires compute.

Demand for tokens is absolutely there, and regardless of the model used, it still has to come through hyperscaler or neocloud data centers.

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@VinIyengar Just look at any list of distressed companies and you can see many aren’t. Also the fundamental catalyst of ZIRP isn’t here anymore - it’s less capital needing to be deployed and more actual values

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@ShanuMathew93 Who are the big winners from this?

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@behzadnouri @kermankohli I mean isn’t memory cyclical in margins because it is cyclical in volume? Capacity overbuild compared to volume causes reduced volumes

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@TechFundies Always need to remember that these are extremely backwards looking. Most enterprises hadn’t heard of Claude before January

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@scaling01 Except they’re actively releasing models? OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t a cabal they’re still trying their hardest to one up the other

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@PrefShares You get a lot less watts online when you have to pay for NVIDIAs margins…

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@buccocapital @pkedrosky @BigTechPod This is a stupid argument - Anthropic isn’t going to just toss away the potential to generate hundreds of billions in revenue.

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

@chamath You realize this is more due to being unable to retrofit data centers…

[Bavin Gaker @bavingaker]

Chamath showing why he is in the latter group

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

The market is reducing itself to:

Technology people who knows how this stuff works

Vs

Everyone else who has no idea and so gets short because it violates their non-technology priors