Grateful to speak at @EBlockchainCon last week on “BTC & ETH as Institutional Treasury Strategies”
Great conversation with @RichardByworth, @Sanderandersenn, Christopher, Joaquín, and Michael.
The tradeoff, as I think about it is as follows:
1) Not buy back STRC and be able to keep leverage ratio exactly where corporation wants it
2) buyback STRC and potentially risk having declining amplification because of STRC retirement.
The entire strategy is predicated on BTC price increasing forever and STRC's market cap increasing forever to keep amplification topped off.
Buybacks just make it such that amplification may decline if enough STRC is retired, which could happen.
I personally believe long term, that STRC buybacks on the margin will increase long term adoption of the instrument and will be more successful in growing it's market cap over 10 years,
than not buying it back and maintaining higher market cap in the short term.
@SWC_Wiki@MillerC0le Today! In about 15 minutes. This week will be the first time we stream live on both X and YouTube, and the episode will be available on Spotify as well about an hour after we finish!
One of the most important takeaways from this week's Hurdle Rate discussion was our conversation about the Japanese yen. Most people think yen weakness is bullish for the dollar. I think the opposite is true.
Japan is the canary in the coal mine for the fiat system. It has the worst fiscal position among the major developed economies. The United States has the second worst, but the most to lose as the issuer of the world's reserve currency. If confidence in the yen continues to break down, markets will not stop with Japan. They will ask the same questions about every heavily indebted sovereign, beginning with the United States.
The market is already telling us this. Since early 2021, the yen has lost roughly half its value against the dollar, yet DXY is only modestly higher. More importantly, DXY peaked in late 2022 and has fallen materially since, even as the yen has continued to weaken. If yen weakness were truly bullish for the dollar, why has the dollar weakened against the broader basket while the yen has continued to fall?
Viewed through that lens, the U.S. intervention makes perfect sense. It is not about protecting Japan, nor is it solely about reducing the risk that Japan sells its massive U.S. Treasury holdings. It is ultimately about protecting confidence in the dollar. Confidence in the world's reserve currency is the foundation of today's fiat system, and a disorderly loss of confidence in the yen risks accelerating questions about the dollar itself. This intervention may buy time, but it cannot solve the underlying fiscal problem or preserve the dollar's reserve currency status indefinitely.
The sovereign debt problem is not going away. It is spreading, and Bitcoin will be the primary beneficiary. This is one of the primary reasons we remain all in on amplifying Bitcoin exposure through our common equity $ASST.
We also discuss the Coldcard breach, the incredible response from the Bitcoin community, and more in this week's episode of Hurdle Rate.
40 minutes. The Continental goes live at 6pm - Smarter Web's $SWC convert payoff, Strategy's $MSTR earnings call, and the Stretch $STRC buyback. We'll also be discussing the COLDCARD incident today.
@benharvey x @medc3005