Bitsky

Not financial advice for entertainment purposes only. #dyor

[Stefan Schubert @StefanFSchubert]

McKinsey, BCG, and Bain are raising starting salaries.

“It may not be the boom we saw in 2021 and 2022, but the consulting market is growing” (FT)

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

Lowering the # of "live" Fed meetings per year means the Fed is either:
1. Liable to fall further behind the curve b/c it will move too slow, or
2. Gonna have to be more open to 50bp+ moves than before

This comes as the Fed intentionally guided hikes to a slower quarterly pace

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Prometheus Hyperscale drops plans for $500M data center campus in Natrona County, Wyoming

#MacroEdge

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

SOURCES SAY MEDIATORS AND IRAN ARE DISCUSSING HOLDING A TURKEY MEETING BEFORE NOVEMBER 4, WITH THE TIMELINE FOR THE NEW PROPOSAL INCLUDING OPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND LIFTING THE SIEGE - AL ARABIYA

[ResiClub 🏡📊 @ResiClub_HQ]

U.S. rental vacancy rate

Rental slack continues to build on a nationally aggregated basis

[Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat]

Regional Fed manufacturing and services surveys show price pressures may have eased a touch, but they remain elevated. A small victory, though these levels still suggest higher inflation in the coming months.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

BofAI: Older generations’ spending growth has slowed

Discretionary spending growth has been slower among older (Baby Boomer and Traditionalist) households despite wealth effect

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

Credit spreads in the tech sector now exceed those of other sectors, as the tech industry shifts from being a cash generator to a cash incinerator.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Significant development and the most meaningful regional engagement seen during the war thus far.

That said, the generally enthusiastic tone from Iranian officials (while not surprising--a regional order that does not include the US has been an Iranian ambition for decades) serves to obscure one of the likely motives behind this trip: Saudi communicating that attacks on its territory are likely to bring more serious repercussions than in the past.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: Oil in transit rises to an all-time high, per @Vortexa data. Several factors helping: 1) rising Middle East flows (SoH plus bypasses); 2) ship-to-ship operations keeping oil aboard tankers for longer; 3) lengthier routes as importers diversify away from MEast

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

The lesson from Lula winning (after Bolsonaro was priced ~82%) is that prediction markets are just a function of polls—which are increasingly unreliable.

There’s no signal from betting odds… just more opportunity to speculate. Expect a lot of “surprises” during midterms.

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

This increase in credit spreads is consistent directionally with what is predicted to happen to credit spreads based on Kim and Wright’s model estimates (half of the 10 year ust increase was term premium)

Of course if you zoom out from this picture, the latest increase is but a blip.

At the same time, my back of envelope estimation using the KM term premium estimates would say HY OAS can go up by another 100-140 bps soon.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Keep an eye on China - it can bite both ways. If they decide to continue to replenish oil stock at these levels, ok, it's certainly not for runs, the rally is leaving a trail of dead bodies already....

[Isaac Saul @Ike_Saul]

Astonishing.

I've been tracking Trump admin corruption and self-dealing for the last 20 months.

Here are 10 stories (!!!) from just the last three weeks.

Literally. Every single one from October.

[Bitsky @bitsky7]

@AndreasSteno Will him ending the war make datacenter debt more suddenly more appealing? Oil getting crushed along with rate hike expecations from that is definitely risk positive but that doesnt mean all of the other roi issues just disappear (e.g., political constraints/delays, etc.)

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Amazon withdraws plans for four data centers on the 122-acre former GWU Ashburn campus in Loudoun County after buying it for ~$427M

#MacroEdge

[Neil Sethi NEW account @neilsethinew]

One reason $META was likely lower after traders had some time to digest the earnings report was they told you some potentially very significant equity issuance is coming in the guise of a stock split.

"Meta is pitching the non-voting shares as a currency to raise capital, pay employees and fund acquisitions without diluting voting power. Every holder gets one Class C share per existing share on Jan. 19, effectively a 2-for-1 split. The funding need is real per the spending commitments noted earlier: the information statement says management’s long-range plan shows Meta needing to raise 'hundreds of billions of dollars' over several years, beginning as early as this fall."

"But the same filing makes clear the structure is also a way for Mark Zuckerberg to cash out. He can sell 20% of his Class C shares immediately. That’s 10% of his total economic stake, and the filing explicitly ties it to a potential California wealth-tax bill (Proposition 40 is on the Nov. 3 ballot). The other 80% are tied to his voting shares, but they unlock at 2.5% a quarter for as long as he stays in a full-time leadership role. After eight years he can sell all of them, which is up to half his economic stake and roughly $124 billion at early-October prices, without giving up a single vote."

"The filing concedes the change could significantly extend his control. He holds 60.6% of the vote on a 13.4% economic stake and refused sunset provisions on his supervoting shares. Other shareholders got no vote, because Zuckerberg-controlled entities approved the change by written consent. So outside shareholders absorb the economic dilution of future Class C issuance, while Zuckerberg keeps full control and gains a path to sell down."

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

Meta spending a cool 2.5% of GDP on off-balance sheet AI infrastructure.

roughly double the European Union’s total defense spending

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

This paragraph from $META's inside 10-q filling may mark the official announcement that the funding environment for the AI buildout has turned the corner. (HT: Barclays' Alexander Altmann)

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Chase data suggests recent consumer spending has decelerated even as prices have spiked.

Another datapoint suggesting the consumer is increasingly exhausted from the 2nd round of oil price rises. h/t @thedailyshot