Bitsky

Not financial advice for entertainment purposes only. #dyor

[Chris Sommers @ChrisSommers79]

The spend is very skewed to a smaller cohort of token spenders that are doing insanely wasteful things… 1/n

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Jevons' Paradox is deeper than we appreciate. After the study, coal consumption slowed and then declined.

Jevons was famous for noticing that as coal efficiency improved, so did coal consumption. I’ve upsized and annotated the chart his 1865 book The Coal Question.

We have embraced the first half of his conclusion in our assumptions on AI build outs. As cost efficiencies improve, so will consumption.

We don't discuss Jevons' follow-on that a long continuation of that progress was an "impossibility". He was right: I've overlayed actual coal consumption in the decades ahead.

New innovations made the previous way of doing things (coal) less relevant. Britain did not run out of demand for useful work. Instead, they shifted from coal as the uniquely dominant way to produce useful work.

This is part of why I believe that, when asked about specifics of the future, @benedictevans succinctly says "it depends".

Today, we are extrapolating consumption of GPUs, CPUs, storage and RAM in the very way that Jevons himself warned against, financed by large amounts of debt.

[@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus]

Macro Regime Views 🧵

Quick thread on our macro views and how we’re thinking about playing them.

And ofc some systematic applications

0/13

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

My model, which consists of several hundred leading indicators for the stock market, is getting nervous. If the economic activity component deteriorates further, the z-score could fall below -1, a critical threshold that has reliably predicted bear markets in the past.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

"A JPMorgan analysis last month found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 isn’t yet under construction, and another 7% is delayed."

@wsj https://t.co/wN09gqgEc1

[Jana Choukeir @ChoukeirJ]

Iran’s fars: if finalized and agreed, the MOU between U.S. and Iran will go through a four-stage mechanism

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

Morgan, that chart is useless, as active inventory isn't even back to normal levels yet.
In 2007, we had 4,000,000 active inventory
Today we are at 1,470,000
Normal is 2-2.5 million

[Dr_Gingerballs @Dr_Gingerballs]

$BTC is a measure of data center junk bond health. Crypto tokens and AI tokens are the same: conversions of money to heat.

The selloff in bitcoin could be enough to slow datacenter build out and derail the AI trade entirely. The current pain point.

https://t.co/lnUfi60v7c

[David Beckworth @DavidBeckworth]

Romer and Romer (2026) define six periods of the Powell Fed. https://t.co/YtyHnb4nyl

[Kalani o Māui @MauiBoyMacro]

“The signal from the ISM Non-Manufacturing employment index contradicts seasonally adjusted ADP and is a statistically significant predictor of nonfarm payrolls.” 👇🏼

- Julia Coronado

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Forget oil demand destruction... the next stop is outright shortages.

Morgan Stanley says no oil demand destruction below 120 dollars a barrel, and Axios together with the Trump administration will never allow that price to hold for long.

They’re crushing oil with fake‑news headlines in the middle of the biggest supply shock ever, which only fuels demand instead of reducing it.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Across the 10 responses included from this month's ISM survey of service-industry purchasing managers (the people who buy things on behalf of businesses), the dominant theme is rising costs, driven by fuel and energy prices, tariffs, and AI-related demand.

No respondent reports prices easing or falling. A few comments focus more on supply tightness than on prices directly, but none point in a disinflationary direction.

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

@REXShares Education and healthcare still holding everything up (about half the total print)

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Trump said a lot of interesting things in his NYP interview.

He implied the blockade on Iran could be in place until Labor Day (September).

He also suggested he would meet Iran's supreme leader at some point.

FWIW if the US maintains its blockade, Iran is unlikely to allow the strait to reopen.

[Soumaya Keynes @SoumayaKeynes]

First, the supreme court collapsed the Trump administration's tariff wall.

Then the Trump erected a temporary tariff fence, due to fall down again in late July.

Last night USTR shared how it plans to rebuild the tariff wall's foundations. 🧵

[David Beckworth @DavidBeckworth]

Inflation, once again, rising to the top economic problem in Gallup's "Most Important Problem" poll. (1/3)

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

HUGE scoop from @AndrewDesiderio and @LauraEWeiss16

MARK WARNER has told JOHN THUNE to try to get @pulte removed as DNI.

If he's in the job, Democrats are threatening to withhold their votes for FISA, which expires in 9 days.

FISA is at real risk of expiring due to Trump's decision to put PULTE in as DNI.

Almost certain that JOHNSON cannot put the bill on suspension now. And can he get it out of rules?

https://t.co/UkGDVuWdvX

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Per a March-April Harvard Youth Poll, Americans between 18 and 29 years old said rising prices and inflation ranked as both as the top crisis requiring action and issue posing the largest risk to their personal lives

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

Excluding professional and business services, job openings in other industries have been stable.

Source: Oxford Economics

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

ADP private payrolls come in at +122k for May … best since January 2025