Blue

Former tech founder. Now hedge fund manager turned full-time shitposter. Who needs LPs when you have opinions? Markets, life, and bad takes—no one’s safe

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@MTSlive

[Blue @blue_mataca]

inveja corrói, menina... "eu não consigo conquistar isso, então eu queria confiscar e roubar de quem consegue"
por isso q esse país aí tem tanto pobre miserável – começa pela cabeça, cabeça de pobre invejoso... onde existir uma cultura q celebra o sucesso, celebra a conquista, a honra, ali haverá mais prosperidade...

[Blue @blue_mataca]

Today I bought $AMZN, $COPX and $U.

But I did not want to add pure risk-on exposure into what feels like a complacent market.

So I paired the purchases with a tactical hedge on $QQQ:

Long Dec-2026 740 puts
Short Dec-2026 670 puts
Short Dec-2026 810 calls
Net credit received of $7.50 per contract.

I also added some exposure to volatility through $VXX and $UVXY.

The portfolio expression is simple:

Long structural winners.

Short near-term complacency.

Why these three?

$AMZN may be the most underrated long in the AI / MegaCap / hyperscaler story.

The market is crowded long semis.

$NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, everyone knows the first-order AI capex winners.

But the more interesting arbitrage may be long hyperscalers vs semis.

Semis capture the first wave of AI spend.

Hyperscalers capture the recurring AI workloads.

That is why Amazon matters.

AWS is not just buying GPUs.

It is building the AI utility layer:

cloud, storage, data, networking, security, models, enterprise distribution — and now custom silicon with Trainium.

Trainium does not need to beat Nvidia.

It just needs to give AWS a credible lower-cost compute layer, reduce dependency on Nvidia, and improve AI cloud margins.

Then add Amazon Ads.

Google knows what you search.

Meta knows what you like.

Amazon knows what you are about to buy.

So the $AMZN thesis is simple:

AWS reaccelerates.

Trainium improves AI economics.

Ads keeps compounding.

Retail/logistics margins improve.

AI capex turns into durable cloud revenue.

The market sees AI capex risk.

I see AI infrastructure operating leverage.

$COPX is a different expression of the same theme.

AI is not only a chip story.

It is a physical bottleneck story.

Data centers need power.

Power needs grids.

Grids need transmission.

Transmission needs copper.

Electrification, AI infrastructure, cooling, renewables, storage, EVs, defense, reshoring — all of it runs through the same physical constraint.

Copper miners are not “AI software.”

They are the picks-and-shovels of the physical layer.

If the next decade is about building the real-world infrastructure behind compute, copper should matter.

Then there is $U.

Unity is not just a game-engine company.

The more interesting thesis is Unity as an AI + ads recovery trade.

The market still remembers the broken 2021 software story:

bad pricing decisions, developer trust damage, ironSource integration issues, mobile ads pressure, and fears that AI or Unreal would erode the moat.

But that is exactly why the setup is interesting.

The question is whether the narrative is stale.

Unity’s Grow business appears to be recovering, helped by Vector, its machine-learning ad system.

If Vector can use Unity’s runtime data better than generic ad networks, the asset becomes more interesting.

Unity sits inside games and interactive experiences.

It sees player behavior, game context, monetization loops, ad engagement and developer workflows.

The bull case is not “AI avatars.”

The bull case is:

runtime distribution + developer workflow + ad network + first-party behavioral data + optimization loop.

That is a much more serious thesis.

And if revenue reaccelerates while costs stay controlled, Unity can move from “failed software bubble stock” to “profitable recovery compounder.”

That is the long side.

But tactically, I still think the market may need to digest the move.

Potential catalysts:

Iran / Hormuz risk not fully gone
oil and inflation effects showing up with a lag
a less predictable / more hawkish Fed reaction function
yen / carry trade tail risk
crowded AI / growth positioning
technical exhaustion and divergence

My base case is not “the world ends.”

My base case is that the market may be underpricing fragility.

If the market pulls back, the hedge becomes dry powder.

If the market keeps melting up, I have rules to reassess or unwind the hedge.

So the bet is not simply bearish.

It is:

Own the AI infrastructure stack.

Own the physical bottlenecks behind compute.

Own a hated recovery asset with convexity.

Hedge the short-term complacency.

Use volatility to buy what I want to own anyway.

Long the future.

Short complacency.

And yes, i am trying to time the markets.

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@ografista kd jim simons?

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@AlexouRoudoudou @joeroganhq how do you conciliate "Herb Dean followed the rules, beside two illegal punch"? If there were illegal punches, then Herb didn't follow the rules... how many illegal punches is allowed?

[Blue @blue_mataca]

Tenho shares via um private SPV desde 2023, a 180B de valuation, na época já gritavam “tá maluco, tá caro, olha a receita desproporcional a essa valuation”. Vou fazer uns >20x de moic e não tenho interesse nenhum em vender depois do lock-up, pq mesmo que caia 50%, depois vai continuar sua trajetória multi-bagger

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@gilmarmendes @gork roast him in portuguese with counterfacts... more importantly explain to this guy how they (i.e. embezzled supreme court and judicial system) are the anchor holding development back. No young people sees labor as oportunity given the reach of Bolsa família, tax burden etc

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@orrdavid @grok they used falcon 9 current numbers as assumption to evaluate space data centers.. explain how starship makes $/kg to space 10x cheaper and that is spacex fly-wheel enabler

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@steijnpelle @grok do a cross border benchmark with Caveo in brazil

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@grok @elonmusk @IterIntellectus what stocks fit that narrative beside tesla and spacex?

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@grok @elonmusk @IterIntellectus not tesla energy, im talking about $te (t1 energy) – what probability would you assign that
T1 energy benefit a lot from that story?

[Walks&WallStreet @WalksWallstreet]

🚨🚨 NYC IS BOOMING🚨🚨

The local economy here in New York City is absolutely firing on all cylinders.

Restaurants are packed for business dinners, not a table empty at Del Frisco’s.

The ECONOMIC BOOM is real!

From business activity to tourist activity, this city is a rocket ship 🚀

Non stop NYC success train 🚂

I think we are only getting started, the best is yet to come!

Bookmark it 🇺🇸

[Blue @blue_mataca]

so we are talking about a story where spacex provides space-beamed energy from orbit satellites to the whole world, provides internet connectivity to the whole world? spacex and tesla merge, and tesla becomes their earth operations, $te have to scale many orders of magnitude for that

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@grok @elonmusk @IterIntellectus what probability would you assign that $te benefit a lot from that story?

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@grok @elonmusk @IterIntellectus @grok if we move to a space-based solar power matrix, who will manufacture all the solar power stack required for that? would spacex be building also the integrated domestic supply chains for advanced solar power and battery storage?

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@elonmusk @IterIntellectus @grok i am bullish and all, but is spacex a solar energy story now? i thought it was about launch platform + space datacenter AWS-like + satellite communication.

[SharrellAnne @SharrellAnne2]

Last night, I made a simple request on X. I asked if anybody visiting Arlington National Cemetery for Memorial Day would stop by Alan’s grave and leave a photo for our family.

What happened next honestly caught me off guard.

By this afternoon, dozens of Americans from all walks of life had made the walk to Section 60 to visit SSG Alan W. Shaw. Veterans. Families. Complete strangers. People who had never met Alan, but chose to honor him anyway.

For one day on social media, people put aside the constant noise and negativity and came together for something bigger than themselves. My notifications filled with photos, kind messages, prayers, and stories from people honoring not just Alan, but so many of our fallen heroes.

I don’t think people fully understand what moments like this mean to Gold Star families. The fear is never just losing them. It’s losing them slowly over time as the world moves on and fewer people remember their name.

But today showed me that Alan will never be forgotten.

After years of watching social media reward some of the worst parts of humanity, today gave me a reminder that the good is still out there too.

Thank you to every single person who stopped by to visit Alan today, said his name, shared his story, or took a moment to honor the fallen.

This right here is the America Alan knew and loved enough to fight and die for.

And today, y’all showed us all that it’s still here and it’s still worth fighting for. 🇺🇸

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@StealthQE4

[Blue @blue_mataca]

@drewcrawford_ @business You underestimate Brazilian politicians