Bond Donkey

The US is a Banana Republic however our lone export is not a crop - it’s just US dollars.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@SpecialSitsNews Interesting that people only believe what xyz person from Iran says and yet… oil gets out.

Painful monetary lesson for those not versed in geopolitics.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@zerohedge Lmao. Bond indentures don’t exist anymore or if they do there is always a work around

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Index near two-decade tights. CCC spreads 90bps wider YTD w/ the CCC-BB ratio at a decade wide.

How are both true?

Defaults don’t hit the index anymore. They bleed out in the CCC bucket while the LME keeps the stat clean.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@UrbanKaoboy @Mike_Taylor1972 That’s not accurate at all.

People who got under the hood could not hedge until this morning.

What is accurate is that the process was run poorly.

3 days, leaked on day 1, pause, then restarted with market tanking to get awful pricing.

Complete amateur hour.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@WorthlessPaper @Mike_Taylor1972 Someone either got a) awful awful banking execution and advice or b) someone needed to get paid or c) both… I’m going with C

[Matt Dratch @DratchCap]

Today was a bad day so I’ve decided to rage against this index. Shockingly, people don’t know that you can’t reliably track tokens. Nobody outside the labs / hypers sees the actual token flows.

Before I even get to the flaws in the data, did anyone consider that as capability rises and cost falls, task complexity goes up? Agentic work has a long tail of simple steps for every hard one, and the easy stuff scales disproportionately. This index skews toward API middlemen running harnesses that route subtasks to the cheapest capable model (including using sonnet > opus!!). So a falling blended price may say very little about who’s using what, and a lot about total usage and task complexity going up. Now to the data.

This index in particular is a blended avg price of itself a subset of incomplete data. For ex, one big synthetic data run on a cheap open model could impact it while frontier demand remains the same.

The sample also liens on aggregators (api middlemen man). So you’re not seeing direct enterprise contracts or first party consumption (using the app). This is like looking at online retail and not having prime or Walmart.

And it has no idea what anyone actually pays. 1) All tokens are not the same, 2) list prices do not equal token prices.

On 2, important cost reduction techniques like batching / caching are offered at huge discounts (50-90%) and so mix shift here adds to the noise.

Free tokens / expanded limit promos (liek what anthro is doing right now) also show up as falling prices… so the marketing budget is bleeding into the “demand” chart.

And if you needed another reason: if the conclusion is people are using frontier models less bc the chart is rolling, how would you explain the chart also rolling at the start of the year when everyone was having an orgasm about frontier lab (Claude) ARR absolutely ripping during this period?

Which is all to say that model usage is assuredly evolving (see NBIS token factory) and that may be the right conclusion, but i would not be using this data to “track” that.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@TommyThornton Absurd pricing, leak it, waste 2 days. Then price it at the lows. @private_dataguy

https://t.co/oc9TzmlsLi

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@WorthlessPaper @Mike_Taylor1972 @Mike_Taylor1972 what kind of joke pricing is this, just giving existings free 10 points?

MS on PCT: 4.5s up 37.5 mids, wall 1x , going to existing guys, 400mm raise, priced off common, this risk should be good, 1 plant, 1 contract jersey, cheap

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@WorthlessPaper @Mike_Taylor1972 @Mike_Taylor1972 what kind of joke pricing is this, just giving existings free 10 points?

MS on PCT: 4.5s up 37.5 mids, wall 1x , going to existing guys, 400mm raise, priced off common, this risk should be good, 1 plant, 1 contract jersey, cheap

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@DarioCpx That’s have investing in growth works… it’s not rocket science. You pay first then get revenue next.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@DratchCap The King ™️

[Worst Finance Takes @Lifeinvestmoney]

Learn from me

Don't trade oil futures

Neighbors are pissed

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@BillAckman @X Scorched earth. Do it.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@SpecialSitsNews Can probably go further back than 2000

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@ConsensusGurus https://t.co/U4fiEVLqhi

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@HajarnisMohit Or to simplify… all economic profit (ie margin) has been going to companies with intangible assets because we have went away from capitalism and towards corporatism / monopolies.

Now margin benefits will go to companies with tangible assets as they pay less for software etc.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@TheKingOfWeimar @jam_croissant https://t.co/EnlPOlgy6m

Those I Owe U are super valuable. Dont want to lose those.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@TheKingOfWeimar @LawrenceLepard @adamtaggart King is back

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@yummyCenturyEgg @origoinvest Like AAP etc they do 365 day payables so no one ever really knows actual cash

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@yummyCenturyEgg Or that they couldn’t get a “clean” audit from anyone no matter how much they were willing to pay

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@Restructuring__ In the arena. Doing things.

[Bond Donkey @bonddonkey]

@jonfavs @DavidSacks @theallinpod Jon - your righteous arrogant word salad makes no sense, let me simplify for you:

Non citizen + relatives who are defrauding = deport

Citizen who is defrauding = jail

How dense can you be, assimilate and add value or LEAVE