David O'Donnell

Husband, Father, Grandfather, Native Texan, Outdoorsman

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@JunkScience This is the average 31 hottest daily temps per year over 15 cities across CO, KS, NE, OK that have remained rural small since 1900, and days of the year above certain temp thresholds. The dashed line is the 30 year background average.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

At the current juncture, can anyone give a logical explanation as to why Iran would accept a deal proposed by Trump? Why would they give up control of the Strait? Why would they give up their HEU?

[Old Salty Marine @BamaSaltyMarine]

People with rifles were involved in 401 deaths last year.

Constipation killed 901.......

Being full of shit, like liberals, kills more people than rifles!

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@usanewshq Depends on the frame of reference. The earth is also moving around the sun at 67K mph and the sun moving around the galaxy at 500K mph.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@BowTiedCrow Not sure where you are, or that is, but my local Texas Roadhouse has a tent setup outside for overflow waiting area.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@HFI_Research It's more like end of August early September, but you're right, we will see signs well before that. Slowing our exports will happen and why the real pain will begin elsewhere, in SE Asia.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

Here is the reality:

Iran is doing nothing but stalling and is not going to agree to a deal all the way into the Nov elections in the US. The Strait will remain de facto closed for at least that long, and probably much longer.

Those charts are an illusion created by supply that is not accessible to refiners. For the Fig 1-B chart, if we take out the crude stranded behind the SoH, the figure wouldn't even land on the chart and would be below the 1 billion line.

The non-stranded portion of the crude that wouldn't even show on the chart is getting consumed at a rapid rate.

It's pretty much locked in now that we see $150+ oil, demand destruction, and worldwide recession.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

“Our Great ‘Warriors’ who fixed and rebuilt the Reflecting Pool!” - President Donald J. Trump

[Andrew Leyden @PenguinSix]

The Reflecting Pool is now reflecting again.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@Rory_Johnston Like the 400 million barrels released from SPR, these "deferred" barrels are instant demand long term. Plus, given the world will realize they didn't have enough emergency reserves, you can add a factor to all those barrels too.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

Does anyone really believe, besides Trump, that Iran (The IRGC) is going to give up the one thing they gained in the conflict, control of the Strait, to save the rest of the world the suffering of physical oil shortages?

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

Welcome to reality. When Iran negotiates, all they are doing is stalling for time. Time the world doesn't have before physical oil shortages.

Does anyone think the IRGC is going to save the world from physical oil shortages by giving up the only thing they gained in the conflict, control of the Strait?

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

Correct.

Iran has been suffering under sanctions for a long time; they know how to handle it. They have suffered significant damage in the conflict and are now under a maritime blockade.

But, the leverage of the Strait went from something on paper to reality.

They see the rest of the world eventually joining in on their suffering if they hold onto it and force physical oil shortages. They are simply delaying until such time.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

This is a simple economic decision where China is defering higher priced oil imports at the cost of product inventory draws.

Like the 400 million barrels of worldwide SPR release, all of these barrels are instant demand in the system long term, and there is probably a multiplier factor as the world will realize more reserves are needed.

Iran is happily letting the "can" be kicked down the road.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

This is a simple economic decision where China is defering higher priced oil imports at the cost of product inventory draws.

Like the 400 million barrels of worldwide SPR release, all of these barrels are instant demand in the system long term, and there is probably a multiplier factor as the world will realize more reserves are needed.

Iran is happily letting the "can" be kicked down the road.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

This is the crux of the problem. Iran was suffering under sanctions before the war and getting by, but leverage of the Strait was just on paper. Post conflict that leverage is now materialized.

Yes, they are under further sanction with the blockade, but they are used to suffering and are not going to give that leverage up.

All it takes is a drone or 2 per week hitting a ship, and the Strait remains effectively closed.

The world can survive until maybe the end of August before economic ruin begins. The IRGC is happy to let that play out.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

At current rates, we hit the Sec-Def set SPR floor of ~243 million barrels at the end of August. Beyond that, it becomes difficult both politically and economically to go further. Regular inventories would also be around 360 million barrels, only 35 million barrels from operational minimums.

We will begin to see major issues well before we hit such minimums.

Iran obviously knows this and is just stalling until such time.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@aeberman12 @DanielYergin Using comparative inventory data is fine under normal conditions, but this isn't Feb 22'. We started in the hole this time, given what was already drained. At current rates, we reach operational limits by end of Aug early Sep, and problems will begin to show well before that.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

This would be a good analysis given normal conditions, but using relative numbers under extreme conditions is a bit dangerous.

At current rates, the SPR hits the SecDef-certified policy floor of ~243 million barrels at the end of August. At the same time, regular PADD inventories will be around 355 million barrels, only 30 million barrels from operational floor.

We will begin to see issues well before we reach such limits.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

It's not double counting. We had the initial shock, but then the world decided to release 400 million barrels of SPR. We have a price manipulation campaign punishing anyone who bids higher, and China is refusing to import higher priced oil deciding to draw down product inventories instead. All of that has completely changed the calculus.

None of that is sustainable, and it actually causes a larger shock later. The 400 million SPR barrels, plus every barrel China defers, plus every barrel drawn from regular inventories, is now extra demand in the system to get back to where we were. Those barrels also have to be factored up as the world realizes more emergency inventory is required.

Despite what is being claimed in negotiations, the IRGC is never going to negotiate away its hold over the Strait and is slow walking the world into an economic crisis.

This summer, early Fall is going to be one for the history books that we will be talking about for decades.

[David O'Donnell @brecko]

@OilHeadlineNews Iran has rejected all of that. They are not going to open the Strait as Trump wants through negotiations. This is going to be one of those Summer Early Falls that you will remember for the rest of your life.