The European Central Bank’s decision to tighten policy in response to a supply-driven shock reflects a fundamental misdiagnosis of the underlying economic dynamics. When a supply shock occurs, it represents a shift in relative prices, not a generalized inflationary process. In such cases, monetary tightening does little to address the root cause and instead risks compounding the negative effects on growth.
The ECB’s response reflects a recurring error: preemptively tightening policy on the assumption that second- and third-round effects will emerge. In doing so, it attempts to suppress dynamics that may never meaningfully materialize, resulting in a clear misapplication of policy in real time, what might be described, more bluntly, as a classic case of “Keynesian brain rot.”
More concerning, however, is the relative silence of the global economic policy community when such basic theoretical distinctions are overlooked. This absence of critical scrutiny allows persistent analytical errors to become embedded in policymaking frameworks, with predictable consequences for economic performance.
At what point is this persistent misjudgment called out for what it truly is: a failure of policy competence?
Fun fact of the day
This is not the 1970s!!
Wall Street economists still don’t get it.
Raising rates does nothing to fix the relative price shifts caused by a supply shock. Their fear that second- and third-order effects will trigger a 1970s-style inflation spiral is based on flawed economics.
Kevin Warsh understands this. Most of them don’t.
To those of you who did not trust Trump.
The main office of IRGC has been hit hard.
Many leaders dead.
You are witnessing regime change.
Have some faith and stop criticizing the only man who ever helped the people of Iran and supported Israel.
This is the hardest Iran has every been hit. Sit down. Watch. God did not save Trump to do nothing.
About 8 months ago, I warned that “Anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear-mongering.” This take was controversial at the time; now look how many people are saying it.
@RonDeSantis That’s Fair!! Cell bills used to be pay per min. Cost will come down dramatically with adoption.
I wish there was some way to have better info for local elections. It’s frustrating!!
We appreciate all your hard work!! TY!! 🇺🇸
"Stronger than a bomb." That's the deal Trump wants in Iran. Same approach he's taking in Ukraine.
So who keeps blocking it? Not who the headlines tell you.
EXPOSED 👇
Part 1 of our glass core substrate research has been published on Substack!
This is a sector research piece that lays out the big-picture framework for how investors should think about the glass core substrate sector.
It’s free, so feel free to read it at your convenience.
I’ll leave the link in the comments.
$LPKF $SEMCO $SKC $NVDA $INTC
Part of the story @jim_jordan Most of the funny money is coming from the US Treasury, then criminally laundered into politicians' campaigns. We have it all. How about Hansjorg Wyss the corrupt billionaire out of Wyoming, want to see his @Actblue fraud? @JudiciaryGOP@HarmeetKDhillon@JamesOKeefeIII@JamesComer
Individuals injured by the COVID shots are in a growing state of despair. Their injuries are not being acknowledged, and as a result, many are not receiving treatment.
Federal health agencies must admit that they covered up adverse events.
Those harmed by the shots deserve treatment, and families who lost loved ones deserve answers and closure.
There is no “medical justification” for manipulating medical school admissions to match U.S. race demographics.
The @CivilRights Division of @theJusticeDept will continue investigating medical schools that admit students on the basis of race instead of merit.
Alright folks, here it is.
The Chairman’s take on my favorite sector in public markets right now.
The AI infra trade. It's getting crowded, for obvious reason. That doesn’t concern me.
The issue isn’t that there are too many of them. It's that that people are treating them like they’re all the same.
$IREN $NBIS $DGXX $CIFR $HUT $GLXY $APLD $HIVE $KEEL $BRUN $SLNH
Here’s my take:
The best company is not always the best stock.
I like a lot of these names.
$NBIS may be the better company long term. I have said that already.
I still chose $IREN and $DGXX.
Why?
Because ruthlessly I’m not trying to own the best company. I’m trying to own the one with the best asymmetry that is the most mispriced today.
$IREN: is the best vertically integrated AI infra landlord today. Scarce power, land, real execution, capital access, global footprint, $NVDA validation, and the clearest ability to turn energized sites into contracted compute capacity.
$CIFR: scaling well, cap markets access, and real BTC to HPC momentum.
$HUT: infra, power, balance sheet optionality.
$GLXY: more diversified, institutional, and cap markets driven exposure to the AI infra / data center buildout.
$APLD: one of the cleaner public AI data center infra stories. Real scale, real customers, but already much more discovered.
$DGXX: earlier-stage compute infra asymmetry. Smaller, messier, less de-risked, but exactly why it’s interesting.
$HIVE: global footprint and cleaner energy backed compute angle.
$KEEL: earlier stage powered-site compute setup.
$BRUN: proof that the market can reprice credible AI infra very quickly, even with a messy SPAC wrapper and some good standing questions.
$SLNH: energy first infra with compute optionality. BTM makes it interesting.
Now don’t come at me with the “ $NBIS is a better company bullshit” or “what about the $IREN ATM.”
I have addressed both. If that’s your takeaway, you either didn’t read the post or worse, you didn’t understand it.
I am not @jiahanjimliu, @FransBakker9812 or @Agrippa_Inv.
I’m not trying to out-model everyone on GPU rental rates, exact contract terms or every DC nuance.
My view is simple folks:
Where is the most asymmetry?
Where is the biggest bottleneck?
Who can deliver capacity the fastest?
Who has assets the market is still mispricing?
That’s why I chose $IREN and $DGXX.
$IREN is my core AI infra sleep tight at night bet. The market is somehow still debating whether it’s a miner or an HPC DC. That is why it’s an opportunity.
$DGXX is my earlier stage $IREN bet. Less proven. Less institutional. Less obvious. That is the point. When it executes, the rerate will be violent because the market has not fully put it in the right box yet.
This is all about choosing where I think the best risk-adjusted asymmetry sits today.
Right now, I’m certain it’s $IREN and $DGXX.