Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this).
For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down.
Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle.
What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend.
DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away.
HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers.
Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances.
Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027.
Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year.
Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%.
There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides.
Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history.
Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided.
For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS.
At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher.
Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028.
The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it.
This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it.
Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.
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Everyone is focused on Micron’s $MU earnings beat.
I think the biggest takeaway is something few are talking about.
Next quarter Micron guided for $50B in rev and $35B profit.
For perspective, 1yr ago $NVDA reported $35B rev and $20B profit for the quarter.
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