Bruce Warila

30+ years of blue collar + software. Construction, proptech, automotive. Cofounder and CEO of

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

https://t.co/miCsSofrwU

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@grok is this correct?

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

This shocked me. 380,000 violent crimes, including roughly 5,700 murders, 41,000 rapes, 79,000 robberies, and 256,000 aggravated assaults.

Take any hypothetical population of 10 million Americans, distributed across the country as Americans actually live.

At recent national rates, police would record roughly 250,000 violent and property offenses in that population every year.

If every offense were committed by a different person, those 250,000 offenders would equal 2.5% of the 10 million people, or about one person in forty.

But that does not mean one in forty Americans is a criminal.

The one-in-forty figure is a thought experiment. It assumes one recorded offense, one offender, and no repeat offending. Real crime does not work that way.

Some offenses involve several people. Some individuals commit multiple offenses. One person committing ten burglaries creates ten offender-offense involvements. Three people committing one robbery create three.

National crime statistics count offenses, incidents, arrests, and sometimes offender involvements. They do not reliably identify how many distinct people were responsible across the entire country and over many years.

The estimate comes from applying national crime rates from 2015 through 2024 to the same hypothetical population of 10 million Americans.

Over those ten years, police would record approximately 2.5 million violent and property offenses in that population.

That total would include about 380,000 violent crimes, including roughly 5,700 murders, 41,000 rapes, 79,000 robberies, and 256,000 aggravated assaults.

Police would also record about 2.1 million property crimes, including burglary, larceny-theft, and motor-vehicle theft.

Spread across the decade, the 2.5 million recorded offenses equal approximately 250,000 offenses per year for every 10 million Americans.

Because every offense requires at least one offender, this implies at least 250,000 offender-offense involvements each year within that population of 10 million.

The actual number of involvements may be higher when several people participate in one offense.

The number of distinct offenders, however, is likely lower than 250,000 because some people offend repeatedly.

The recorded totals also do not capture every crime that occurred. Victim surveys suggest that approximately half of serious nonfatal violent victimizations are never reported to police.

The most defensible conclusion is therefore: For every 10 million Americans, police record roughly 250,000 violent and property offenses in an average year. That equals one offense for every forty residents, but not one distinct offender for every forty residents.

The scale is real. The one-in-forty offender comparison is hypothetical.

Sourced from Chat GPT.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@emollick anything that can be measured….

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

In defense of speech.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@simonw 💯

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@ryjlocal realistically 61.8% / 38.2%.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

Really good. “every optimization process eventually risks becoming self-defeating. metrics become targets. proxies replace objectives. variance is mistaken for error. the outliers capable of breaking the system disappear because the system itself learns to eliminate them.”

[Fede’s intern 🥊 @fede_intern]

european football has spent the past fifteen years solving futbol like chess.

a generation of coaches optimized for pass completion, pressing triggers, territorial control, rest defense, and positional occupation.

the problem of this is that they optimize for what is measurable. depth, the willingness to attack space early, attempt the difficult pass, dribble past a defender, or deliberately create chaos, is a high variance play. it fails more often than it succeeds. if you evaluate players by completion rate, ball retention, or positional discipline, those actions look like mistakes. so they get coached out. eventually, everyone converges toward the same local optimum.

the game becomes increasingly legible. every team occupies similar spaces, presses in similar ways, builds from the back with similar patterns, and minimizes the same risks. systems become better at defeating other systems, but worse at dealing with players who refuse to behave like systems.

south american football never fully abandoned the duel as the fundamental unit of the game. the 1v1 remained sacred. so did the tactical foul, the unpredictable dribble, and the player willing to lose possession five times if the sixth breaks the match open. the objective was never simply to preserve structure, it was to create someone capable of destroying the opponent’s structure.

football is not won by completing the most passes. it is won by scoring more goals than the other team. those are related, but they are not the same objective.

this is the danger of optimizing proxies. when everyone optimizes the same measurements, they stop optimizing for victory itself. they optimize for looking efficient.

italy may have been the first major european football culture to lose part of its identity this way. its historical advantage was never athletic superiority or perfect positional play. it was tactical asymmetry, unpredictability, and an instinct for making matches uncomfortable. as italian football converged toward the same coaching model as the rest of europe, it gradually surrendered the qualities that had made it different.

the broader lesson extends well beyond football. every optimization process eventually risks becoming self-defeating. metrics become targets. proxies replace objectives. variance is mistaken for error. the outliers capable of breaking the system disappear because the system itself learns to eliminate them.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@Brick_Suit Postmarks are money. Treat them like digital currency. Traceable what, who, and when. End the practice of manual marks. If votes = marks, track the marks.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

Something huge is coming. The message is stunning, but look closely at the production here. This is not some quick good by video. This is messaging to the max. Crimes against humanity.

[DNI Tulsi Gabbard @DNIGabbard]

Today, on my final day as Director of National Intelligence, I’m releasing never-before-seen communications and documents exposing how Dr. Fauci provided millions in US taxpayer dollars to fund dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab, worked with politicized elements within the Intelligence Community to suppress the truth about his actions and hide the virus’ lab-leak origins, and lied to Congress while under oath in 2024. It’s time you know the truth.

https://t.co/3YJSstB7d4

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

https://t.co/IemuTVihBL

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

https://t.co/ydqjVZEsys

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@CJHandmer I applaud the effort. I have 4. Oldest is 32. I write a lot. I came to the conclusion that 35 is just about the age when know how much of our advice landed…or not.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@RapidResponse47 @epaleezeldin @EPA ….however, human testing will continue until further notice

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@patrickc I am working on https://t.co/wZCDuUVoEo

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

If you run a business, and you are letting employees feed company documents, problems, solutions, etc into personal AI accounts, when the leave, they will be leaving with WAY more than you might think.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@stephen_wolfram @Plinz ChatGPT warned me a year ago.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

https://t.co/kiwnM28WUa

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@MichelleLa_Rosa at least for me, the opposite happens

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

https://t.co/sVxUKNik8h

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@FreightAlley

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@walterkirn Now I can simply tell me wife I have “a larger observer window”.

[Bruce Warila @brucewarila]

@BrianRoemmele Are the tickets to Mars on sale yet?