harry.

Analyst@Google. Formerly with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies@RSIS, NTU. Angler, watch lover, pipe smoker. Geopolitics is the side hustle.

[harry. @bruinharry]

@DRB3000 @RyanJosephHart @Evo using God to humble brag and put others down is crazy work. leave the big dog out of your mess smh...

[harry. @bruinharry]

ironically, this also applies to geopolitical analysis.

[Jeff J. Snider @snidog]

Tonight, Yoshinobu Yamamoto might step up and pitch a great game to force a Game 7, because he's a big-game pitcher and that's what big-game pitchers do.

Or the Blue Jays might get to him, because it's hard to dominate a team twice in one series.

Either way, people will act like the result was inevitable. But it's not. Right now, none of us knows what will happen. It's one of the things I love about baseball — nothing is inevitable except in hindsight.

[Henry Gao @henrysgao]

“Give me your chips!”

“No!”

“Give them to me or I won’t share my dirt!”

“Not until you eat my soybeans!”

I always thought that only happened in kindergarten — apparently it’s now called diplomacy.

[harry. @bruinharry]

this grifter went from mr. "human rights to everyone in china!" to "build re-education camps for muslims in new york!" so fast. thoroughly entertained by this anime arc.

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

Zohran will bring back the Hidden İmam.

[harry. @bruinharry]

lol if you watch the video, the teacher doesn't get anything right other than mentioning Iran. nothing but an elaborate geopolitical fanfic.

KSA, kushner family, and AIAPC weren't factors. there hasn't been an invasion, only airstrikes. nikki haley is not VP. so on and so forth.

[GRITCULT @GRITCULT]

This guy predicted Trump and the Iran war last year.

Is a high school history teacher.

He had no views and no subscribers a few days ago. Has over 100k subs in like 3 days. Has entire playlists on what’s gonna happen. Has been right so far.

Absolutely insane.

[Dr. Dad, PhD 🔄🔼◀️🔽▶️ @GarrettPetersen]

There's a time tested way to cement international alliances, and I shouldn't have to spell it out.

[Kaiser Kuo @KaiserKuo]

I've just written some thoughts about @kyleichan's terrific op-ed in the @nytimes. Link to that in the replies below.

[Carl Zha @CarlZha]

2 week high, guys!!!

[harry. @bruinharry]

@rwang07 Might be a difference in definition of terms. During China's foreign ministry daily presser, Guo mentioned CN-US are not engaged in "cuoshang" or "tanpan", which is probably true according to how CN Gov't defines those. Trump otoh would call texting "negotiations".

[Jostein Hauge @haugejostein]

Ha-Joon Chang: Trump has failed to see that the cause of the US's decline is its own capitalist class.

[Glenn @GlennLuk]

Everybody knows the right order is to first launch a trade war and then — and only then — start planning for them.

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

I heard a smart person say we should provide a steelman case for what Trump is doing on tariffs. It completely ignores the reality of how policy is being made.

To get the 90-day pause, two of his advisers literally waited until another one left the room in order to get him to change his policies, and then rushed to announce it before the other guy found out.

[harry. @bruinharry]

There's no hope for Trump's 'isolate China' plan if he can't get Japan on board. He prioritized US allies first because those are ostensibly the 'easier' negotiations.

I'd expect Trump to get pissy and start bringing in non-trade matters like the security alliance.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Japan will not take part in any trade bloc that seeks to isolate China, given the importance of China as a trading partner. https://t.co/AiTeT4OWOj

[Marco Castelli @macastel3]

Currently at a trade show in Vietnam:

Nobody knows how to handle US market now (wait and see)

Lots of Chinese factories with shipments on hold (big cash problem soon)

if you order from Vietnam now but then China tariffs are cut, you lose money

If China tariffs stay higher than 60% may switch some production to Vietnam

Everyone across all countries agree that what America is doing is a own goal

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

The core issue isn’t as much the tariffs as it is

Tariffs are 30%
Now they’re 145%
Now they’re 145% but we’re gonna have exceptions
You’ll find out about the exceptions in 9 months
Actually no they’re 30% again
Or 70%. It depends.
We’ll get back to you on which of those
We also are working on a deal
Actually no we’re not even talking to them about a deal

IN THE SPAN OF 15 FUCKING BUSINESS DAYS

[harry. @bruinharry]

getting people to understand this basic fact just shows how little understanding there is of the US tech companies' relationship with china. even among google and meta employees, this tweet would come as a surprise.

[Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ]

Meta could lose $7 billion in ad revenue this year because of the tariffs, according to @MoffettNathanso. Meta doesn’t operate its services in China, but advertisers like namely Temu and Shein buy ads on its platforms to reach customers in the U.S.
https://t.co/RxTk1W4X3y

[harry. @bruinharry]

@gonglei89 Just for the sake of friendly discussion, one could say @Jukanlosreve 's take describes CN's historical relationship w/ KR. Countless Ming soldiers died defending KR against JP, and Joseon merchants enjoyed tax free trade accompanying tributary envoys. Not saying you're wrong!

[harry. @bruinharry]

@pstAsiatech the really depressing part is more than a good chunk of the chip supply chain runs through allies and friendly partners of the US; relationships painstakingly built over decades.

we've tariffed them right along with China and now plan to shake them down for protection money. :/

[harry. @bruinharry]

this is the intellectual capacity and analytical rigor of a 6 year old. but there is value in this post in that this exact line of thinking is what is also occupying the white house and has a death grip on the american political establishment.

[Josiah Lippincott @jlippincott]

All of modern China's growth was built on the back of American power. The American taxpayer built Shenzhen, Beijing, Kunming, and Guangzhou. Without us, China would be nothing.

Had it not been for American intervention, China would have been annihilated as a political entity. Were it not for the Open Door Note, the Nine Power Treaty, American pressure against Japan's 21 Demands during WWI, the Stimson Doctrine, and Roosevelt's embargo against critical Japanese military supplies in response to their "aggression" on the mainland, China would simply not have survived the early 20th century.

Indeed, had it not been for American support for Mao, American support for the Soviet occupation of Manchuria, and George Marshall's pressure on the Nationalists to form a coalition government with the communists, the CCP would not have been able to take over China, or, at least, not without fighting a brutal civil war that likely would have permanently divided the landmass.

China, in other words, has no right to exist. Had nature taken its course, there would be no China. China would instead look like Europe: a bunch of fragmented powers scattered among a mostly ethnically similar population and dominated by foreigners.

China is, in my view, the biggest victor out of WWII. Without the conflict, the communists could not have come to power over a unified China. Without American aid they would not exist at all.

To make matters even worse, in the post-war period, the American liberal ruling class gave China an even greater benefit: virtually our whole manufacturing economy.

American business leaders outsourced millions of high-paying middle class jobs from our critical industries in order to make a quick buck. In 2000, the Chinese middle class was just 3% of the population. Today it is 58%.

China's wealth was built on welfare from the American government: both military and economic. Communist China has been, without a doubt, the biggest beneficiary of free trade, American global "hegemony," and the liberal world order.

This stinking, trash-filled, polluted cesspit is the shining example of what liberalism means in practice. Every sprawling Chinese city you see was built by the American people's blood, sweat, and treasure. Without us, China would be nothing.

And how have they repaid our generosity? By unleashing COVID on the world, by glorying in our decline, by stealing our technology, and flooding our country with fentanyl, while seething with resentment at what status and wealth we still have.

Liberalism is a lie. The dream of a planetary economy sustained by the invisible hand and comparative advantage is a chimera. The delusion that the peoples of the earth are all the same, that they all want the same things, and that democracy is the final and obviously best form of government is a lie.

Trade has not made China more democratic and free. It has not made us wealthier. It has made our wealth more concentrated. It has blown up asset prices. It has lowered wages. It has turned our once proud and potent manufacturing centers into shoddy hubs.

The rust belt is a monument to the insanity and stupidity of the post-war order. The flood of migrants into the rest of the country is a testament to the decayed binds of patriotism and loyalty that once made America strong.

We have lost our sense of who we are. We have lost our sovereignty. We have squandered the legacy of our forefathers for nothing.

[Aaron Bastani @AaronBastani]

What a reply.