"It seems bonds are adjusting to a post-QE world but for some reason equities haven't. If you had told me that rates were gonna be where the are now on Jan. 1 and earnings would be flat and the S&P would be up 12-13%, that's not part of my process." https://t.co/IkAAQkkgBK
@chamath @PMrtell @theallinpod Personally, I prefer Latin America and Africa for the next 4 years with the S&P 500 Price to Book Value at 4.23x when the mean is at 2.97x, that fucking rich, why I would pay a Honda Civic the price of a Freaking Ferrari.
@federalreserve If you cannot come up with better data on inflation at one point you guys should face lawsuit for data manipulation , the CPI was way above 10% yoy.
@RaphaelBostic The biggest problem is the data, inflation is now running at something around 20% YoY, protecting the fed credibility should be the priority.
This notion that stocks benefit from inflation is a total fallacy.
If a business today is not growing at double digits, it is simply not keeping up with true inflation.
US households drew their personal savings from record levels to historical lows in the last 18 months, a spending spree that totaled almost $5 trillion.
To put this into perspective:
That was close to 25% of the nominal GDP pre-pandemic.
For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once:
▪️ The debt problem of the 1940s
▪️ The rising inflationary environment of the 1970s
▪️ The excessive financial asset valuations of the late 1990s
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