A new crypt0 cycle meme is born:
“I didn’t promote it, I shared it.” – Javier Milei on $Libra
It joins the hall of fame:
•“1) what” – SBF, moments before FTX imploded
•“Steady lads, deploying more capital.” – Do Kwon, before LUNA went to zero… and he went to jail
•“Celsius is winning.” – Alex Mashinsky, before Celsius collapsed… and he got sued
•“We are the biggest victims.” – 3AC founders, now unable to visit certain countries
•“I’m rich and you’re not.” – Richard Heart, now on the run
Same playbook, different cycle.
Stay humble, study #bitcoin
Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) didn’t sell drugs—he built an anonymous, free, and open platform on Tor called Silk Road.
Silk Road sold apparel, art, books, collectibles, computer equipment, electronics, herbs, and yeah—drugs. But according to friends who used it, Silk Road was arguably the safest way drugs were ever sold: no street violence, no shady deals, and zero fentanyl. Everything was tested and peer-reviewed, like an Amazon for substances.
For this, the government gave him two life sentences without parole for nonviolent charges, including money laundering—just for using Bitcoin. They relied on questionable evidence and made him an example. Two FBI agents who investigated Ross? Well, a few years went to jail themselves for fraud and stealing Bitcoin from the Silk Road investigation...
So, even if you think Silk Road was problematic, you have to admit that the punishment was wildly disproportionate. This isn’t just about Ross or a marketplace—it’s about government overreach and the state’s power to crush individuals with vague laws.
Today, I’m so happy to hear Ross is free. I’ve met his mom several times—her fight for Ross’s life is an incredible story of a mother’s love. Over the past few months, I’ve been emailing with his wife, Caroline, to ensure he was fairly represented in The Big Bitcoin Book and that they got a copy.
As a developer who has worked with Bitcoin for years, this always felt personal. I didn’t build a marketplace, but it could have been me—or any of my friends—targeted by the government. Ross’s case was a warning shot at innovation, and I’ve always felt connected to him because of that.
Justice came far too late, but today I’m grateful Ross is finally free.
THE AGE OF SCAMBLING
Trump Coin and the Wild West of Non-Bitcoin Crypto
By @coryswan
January 20, 2025
Bitcoin continues to mature into a stable and resilient network—a digital fortress of sound money immune to the whims of the powerful. Meanwhile, its lesser imitators, generally known as “crypto,” have taken a different turn, one characterized by a mix of scamming and gambling. This can be termed “SCAMBLING,” where dubious non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies and digital assets blend hype, speculation, and outright fraud. Aided by lax oversight and a newly cozy relationship with legislators and regulators, scambling is set to flourish on a massive scale.
TRUMP Coin vs. Altcoins
Non-Bitcoin crypto assets, from Ethereum’s so-called “world computer” to the newest memecoins, are products of a hyper-speculative market, where the lines between innovation and exploitation blur more every day. Nothing embodies this trend more brazenly than the launch of the TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, originated by Donald Trump and his family.
Without the baggage of false innovation promises that saddle traditional altcoins, these memecoins draw gamblers in through a cult of celebrity, combining political allegiance with the thrill of high-stakes digital betting. There’s no value other than the thrill of hoping a greater fool buys in at a price higher than what you paid. And meanwhile the coin’s creators and insiders got their coins for free or cheap, and dump their coins on the gamblers. It’s scambling at its finest.
The celebrity-backed token is the natural outcome of a landscape where scambling is allowed to thrive. Crypto has managed to normalize an environment where hype takes precedence over substance, and the potential for a quick buck outweighs saving and investing.
Sports Gambling and Crypto Gambling
The overarching trend here is the continued bifurcation of society, with the wealthy focused on saving and investing, and the middle and lower classes increasingly drawn to sports betting and crypto gambling.
We’ve seen this play out over the past decade in Turkey. When the economy was working for the poor and middle classes, Bitcoin dominated the exchanges. As the economy suffered and the local currency weakened, the crypto market was overrun by memecoins and other pump-and-dump schemes. With little savings to put into buy-and-hold investments, most people now play markets like the lottery or a 7-step parlay, hoping for a short-term windfall.
In the United States, sports gambling and crypto gambling have increasingly merged. Their apps look the same. Their advertisements look the same. They sponsor the same types of shows, sporting events, and stadiums, and cross-advertise on each other’s media outlets. This is to be expected. They are both negative-sum games for the participant, but with anecdotes of some people winning big flooding advertising and social media channels, the urge to gamble is strong.
The Crypto Wild West
Cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin exist in a murky regulatory space, one where the rules are unclear, and enforcement is often weak or nonexistent. Recently, a wave of lobbying has enabled crypto groups and companies to exercise unprecedented influence in Washington. Donations from the crypto industry now flood campaign coffers, ensuring that the powers-that-be take a softer approach. This new, light-touch regulatory framework for non-Bitcoin crypto projects is the direct result of millions of dollars spent on political donations, lobbying efforts, and influence campaigns by companies like Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, Circle, and the Ethereum Foundation, all of whom have managed to buy themselves more leeway.
The crypto companies and VCs have taken a page from the playbook of big tech and traditional finance, knowing that political contributions are the surest way to tilt the system in their favor. As these projects receive a pass, it is retail investors who pay the price when these house-of-cards schemes eventually crumble.
This newfound freedom for crypto has ushered in a modern-day “Wild West.” With lax oversight, non-Bitcoin crypto projects are free to grift without the constraints of consumer protections. Rigged token sales, celebrity endorsements, and thinly-veiled ponzi schemes are all allowed to proliferate under the guise of “innovation.” At first glance this might seem bullish for crypto, but let’s be clear: it’s a bonanza for scambling, not for actual innovation.
Bitcoin Stands Alone
Bitcoin, however, remains in a different category. It’s the only cryptocurrency that doesn’t need a lobbyist or a politician’s favor to survive and thrive. While scambling tokens maneuver to win the approval of regulators, Bitcoin operates on its own terms, outside the reach of centralized control. Bitcoin’s ethos is that it’s decentralized and permissionless; nobody controls it and it doesn’t need government regulation because its rules are both clear and inviolable. As regulators and politicians extend preferential treatment to the shiny new tokens paying their way into favor, they are inadvertently amplifying Bitcoin’s core value proposition: financial sovereignty and true decentralization. Bitcoin doesn’t need lobbyists because Bitcoin doesn’t need government to look the other way.
Despite the scandals and hype cycles that have come and gone in the broader crypto industry, Bitcoin stands apart. Unlike the TRUMP coins, Bitcoin has no marketing team, no PR machine, and no centralized authority hyping its value. It is held up by the community that runs its protocol and the decentralized network that emerges. This is why Bitcoin will nonetheless thrive in this era of scambling, despite Bitcoin being the only honest player at the table. As the market for scambling inevitably collapses under the weight of its own false promises, Bitcoin will remain, unshaken and resilient.
Fortunately, as the Age of Scambling proceeds, more people will see the value of Bitcoin’s slow-and-steady, deliberate design. Bitcoin was never intended to be a get-rich-quick scheme, and its value comes not from empty promises but from the integrity of its protocol and the community that upholds it. Every crypto token that crashes and every rug-pull scandal that unfolds serves as a reminder of Bitcoin’s resilience.
In the end, Bitcoin doesn’t need celebrity endorsements, marketing gimmicks, or political handshakes to survive. It is inherently different from crypto. It has withstood every market cycle, every regulatory threat, and every wave of speculative mania. While regulators continue to court crypto lobbyists and embrace this age of scambling, Bitcoin’s role becomes even more apparent: a reliable, unyielding store of value for those who recognize the difference between substance and spectacle. The Age of Scambling may have arrived, but it will be Bitcoin that endures.
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Satoshi took the theoretical concept of perfect money and programmed it into existence.
Deflationary money - designed to increase in value - forever.
It's difficult for the human mind to comprehend. Most still don't get it.
Coming off the speech of @Snowden,
we often view our enemies as naive or somewhat foolish,
underestimating their capabilities,
our typical portrayal of them is that of older, stubborn individuals who are out of touch with the evolving landscape.
while this characterization holds true for some,
it is not the full picture.
there are others who not only understand the transformative potential but also recognize it as a threat to their positions of power.
these adversaries are not merely resistant to change;
they are actively engaged in efforts to thwart the progress
they see it as a destabilizing force to the hegemony that has been meticulously constructed on the exploitation of oppressed individuals,
whom they regard as little more than modern-day slaves.
we find ourselves in a critical phase of conflict,
a "war" phase, if you will.
we must ensure the unwavering privacy, predictability and security of Bitcoin at all costs.
entrenched power structures rarely yield without a fierce fight.
they have substantial collective power and are prepared to use it to maintain their dominance.
we truly don't know who is a friend or a foe,
we must be diligent.
He sold EVERYTHING for a UK based #Bitcoin mining project🇬🇧
Solar panels, mining for heat, a Tesla, UK crypto regulations and how much money Steve makes FOR FREE, this is:
OFF GRID STEVE
Please watch, share and send to a mate 🧡
And follow Steve 👉 @NiceAction
🧵
You really aren't bullish enough on #Bitcoin
All of your existing models for Bitcoin are based on data that is now completely obsolete.
Where it goes from here is anyone's guess.
Your favorite chart squigglers and quad four enthusiasts are relying on data from a period of time where a TINY fraction of global capital had access to Bitcoin.
Few people realize that everything has now changed.
Historically, Bitcoin has never broken through the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level before the halving.
Well, it just blew the doors right off that level.
Market timing geniuses are left sobbing into their rapidly devaluing sacks of fiat, desperately hoping for a pull-back.
Let this be a warning.
It's the first of many models to be destroyed now that BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. are laying on the bid 24/7.
Rumor has it OTC desks have setup makeshift boiler rooms to speed dial whales and beg them for sub-$100K BTC.
Meanwhile TRILLIONS in investment capital sits frozen on the sidelines, unable to move for the next 60 days.
Why, you ask?
Registered Investment Advisors have a 90+ day waiting period before they can allocate to new investment products.
RIAs are watching Bitcoin run, twitching like greyhounds in the race traps, waiting to secure a position for their clients.
We are likely going to see RIA inflows hit at the same time as the halving.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is rocketing even more than Bitcoin.
It's up 63% in the past 3 months compared to 46% for BTC.
But a MSTR pump is just a delayed Bitcoin pump.
@Saylor will soon be selling more MSTR shares and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds.
But that's not all...
With this performance, there's a chance that MicroStrategy could end up in the S&P500.
If that happens, MSTR will receive 10's of billions in passive flows from index investors.
Much of which will ultimately flow into spot Bitcoin as Saylor continues his genius strategy.
Bottom line: Even the hardcore Vanguard Bogleheads will soon be stacking #Bitcoin by way of MicroStrategy.
Just one more thing that isn't priced in.
As all of this unfolds, it's important to keep in mind how the Bitcoin price is actually set.
It isn't tethered to earnings, new product developments, etc.
Its price is only limited by the understanding of the people buying and selling.
Some of us understand how scarce it is, and have already priced it at $1 million+ per coin.
If the market suddenly shifted their views towards ours, there's nothing holding BTC back from going to $500K+ virtually overnight.
What could make that happen?
For now, most people still view BTC as a trade.
Not the ultimate asset to accumulate.
But as a thought experiment, imagine if a major nation state like Saudi Arabia made it clear that they were stacking Bitcoin with their profits.
That they aren't looking to trade in and out, but rather create a multi-generational Bitcoin endowment.
Perception would shift drastically overnight.
Who would sell their BTC for a mere $100K when they know Saudi Arabia is going to pour in decades worth of oil profits?
The same shift could happen if corporations, major billionaires, etc. started publicly denominating their success in Bitcoin.
Jeff Bezos just unloaded $4 Billion in Amazon stock a few months after he was seen partying with Michael Saylor in St. Tropez.
Did Saylor orange pill another whale? Who knows.
But one thing's for sure: We're on a knife's edge.
Only a few headlines away from a shift in perception that would bring drastically higher price levels.
Plan accordingly 🐂
@Ledger You should really add a labeled x axis on the Ledger Live balance graph on the dashboard
It would be very beneficial to what see my balance was at specific times.
Worth remembering that in Tolkien’s Legendarium, the good peoples of Middle Earth govern themselves.
Hobbits govern Hobbits. Elves govern Elves. Dwarves govern Dwarves. Men govern Men.
Only the corrupted Orcs seek total domination over all of Middle Earth.
The groundwork for Rock & Roll was laid by the sober, heartfelt Blues from the Great Depression. That music, in turn, formed the basis for the iconic music of the Sixties and Seventies. Is the cycle repeating?