Will

[Ashley Hays @Ashleyhays2089]

The spiritual realm is REAL.

[Will @btcmma]

@BrianNorgard Sorry to hear that

[Will @btcmma]

Yup houses get robbed all the time up there and the criminals when caught get released quickly.

LA used to be one of the nicest cities in the world and now it looks like Gotham city

[Norgard @BrianNorgard]

Everyone wants out of Hollywood Hills.

[Will @btcmma]

@CaitlinComeskey All you need is Jesus. Literally nothing better

[Will @btcmma]

@fw_bigdog About 2 - 3 months

[Will @btcmma]

All the information about what happened in this article. It’s long but worth the read

[Kevin Loaec 🧙‍♂️🐟 @KLoaec]

Here is our blog post.
- Section 1 is for Liana users, and anyone interested in "game theory" of descriptors and Miniscript/Taproot/Segwit.
- From section 2 its our Post-Mortem of Coldcard.

TLDR: It's worse than you think. Even users who have a safe mnemonic (dice rolls) have BROKEN FEATURES on their Coldcard.
https://t.co/9V9slwWxTj

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

So you’re telling me it’s just a coincidence?

A major self-custody bill (CLARITY ACT) is being debated, lawmakers are fighting over Bitcoin user protections, and suddenly the most trusted air-gapped hardware wallet reveals its seed generation has been broken for five years while wallets are being drained?

[Will @btcmma]

What a disaster. This is why I always tell people with a stack to only use multi sig for storage. So sad to see people lose everything

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

The Coldcard bug explained in simple terms:

Normally, a hardware wallet generates your 12 word seed phrase using true randomness.

Think of it like a lottery with roughly 340 undecillion possible tickets (that’s a 340 followed by 36 zeros). Every ticket has an equal chance of being picked, making the odds of guessing your seed essentially zero.

The bug didn’t shorten the 2,048-word BIP-39 word list. It changed how the wallet picked the words.

Instead of choosing from the entire lottery, the wallet kept picking from the same tiny corner because the “random” numbers were partially predictable from things like the device’s ID and timing.

Imagine that instead of 340 undecillion possible combinations, your wallet accidentally chose from only a few billion. That���s still a huge number, but astronomically smaller than what Bitcoin’s security is designed to provide.

Your seed phrase still looked completely normal. The words came from the same 2,048-word list. Nothing looked suspicious.

But for an attacker, the search space became millions of trillions of trillions of times smaller.

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

I’m convinced that the most underrated trait in life is the willingness to change your mind. Certainty isn't strength. The most impressive people change their minds often in response to new information. It’s a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth.

[Will @btcmma]

Having the millionaire maker not land on Father’s Day weekend would also be great

[CosMo @jonnycosmopoker]

Here’s an idea @WSOP. Start the main event after July 4th.

[Will @btcmma]

Bagged a little over starting in the main. Heading home for a few days then back to Vegas for day 2

[Kyle Julius @KJulius10]

@WSOP needs to have more freezeouts, seems way more enjoyable and the turnouts are amazing. Brings back the nostalgia of poker where everyone is on an even playing field (not skill) but just one chance. #wsop

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

Major cheat code for life: Master the art of the fresh start. From a bad morning. From a bad interaction. From a missed workout. From a poor decision. The goal isn't to avoid the fall. It's to shorten the time between the fall and the reset. Fast recovery compounds.

[Shawn Ryan @ShawnRyan762]

$32 million dollars and an entire administration mobilized to destroy one congressman.
His crime?
Demanding answers about Epstein class abuse networks, and refusing to let child predators hide behind political cover.
If that level of firepower doesn't tell you who's being protected, nothing will.
Go Massie!

[Will @btcmma]

I am also never selling. Can’t believe I got one of best properties in my city because I acted fast before most people knew it was on the market

[Cernovich @Cernovich]

High net work guy with house by beach isn't selling.

Middle class guy with 2.5% mortgage isn't selling, because he can live off credit cards if need to, anything to hold onto that rate.

The "housing bubble" people were obnoxiously wrong, and don't understand basic stuff.

[Will @btcmma]

Concerning. Payouts should be settled immediately

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

It’s been a minute, but now feels like a good time to share some of my thoughts on Bitcoin.

I think the quantum problem is a real risk. I’ve been discussing it for a while through tweets and even in my BTC article. There is some technical risk in a large upgrade working smoothly without unintended consequences. I think that risk is real, but ultimately quite small.

The bigger risks are these:

Bitcoin has no leadership. This is one of its greatest strengths. But in a situation like this, where Bitcoin needs to take coordinated action, which is rare, it becomes a weakness. Nobody is stepping up to resolve this because nobody is the leader. So the response is slow and unorganized.
Something will have to be decided about the lost coins, which are quite sizable, maybe 2M or so, at least 10% of total supply. This is a long discussion on its own, with multiple possible approaches, all of which have tradeoffs. This will almost certainly be contentious, maybe even “block wars” level contentious. Whatever solution wins will have both positives and drawbacks.

Will it be contentious enough to delay a solution until Q-day?
Will the lack of leadership slow things down enough to matter?
Probably not. But it is possible.

In fact, I would say the risk of Bitcoin failing due to these issues is not insignificant. It’s something that should absolutely be considered.

The flip side is that the argument for Bitcoin overtaking gold, assuming it continues working (which is not a given), producing blocks, and implements a quantum-proof solution, is stronger than ever.

And the reason is more about gold than Bitcoin.

Gold’s long-term supply dynamics are broken. The world is hungry for a non-sovereign store of value, and gold has gone through massive price discovery recently. It sits around $4,800 per ounce today, with an estimated market cap of over $33 trillion.

https://t.co/xc5hn7isP5

It is now orders of magnitude larger than the next biggest assets. What a honeypot!

With this growth, mining becomes that much more attractive, so that should increase the supply. But the broken part comes through technology. With AI increasing our rate of scientific progress, it is quite likely that at some point it becomes possible & energy efficient to create gold (think modern alchemy). And with space travel become cheaper & cheaper due to reusable rockets - and soon non-manned craft + a base on the moon where launches from there w/ fraction of Earth’s gravity & no atmosphere make that even cheaper still, it is a matter of time until we are capturing resources in the Solar System. Whether data centers in space or mining the moon & asteroids.

Gold looks great today, but its long-term future as humanity’s primary store of value is certainly limited because its limited supply feature - a necessary one - is going to get BTFO.

All Bitcoin has to do is survive, and it is very likely to take gold’s mantle and absorb that market cap. For this, and other reasons. @SvetskiWrites makes a compelling case here, the "3 generational theory."
https://t.co/qcJnRFxz6A
Namely, as older people who prefer gold die & younger people who prefer BTC get older & richer - this will happen naturally.

Gold is roughly 24x Bitcoin’s market cap today. Even from current levels, simply replacing gold implies a massive move higher. This also ignores Bitcoin’s other use cases, which I go into in more detail here:

https://t.co/rhInj45d7Q

The most bullish of these is its role as a bearer asset and collateral, potentially taking share from bonds. Strategy is implementing a test-phase of this in real time.

So my view is this:

Despite Bitcoin’s growth and its move into the mainstream through ETFs and regulation, the risk of failure is real and should be taken seriously.

But the upside, if it succeeds, is larger than most fathom today, and incredibly compelling.

That means Bitcoin is still today: a high-risk, high-EV investment.

I think it belongs in every portfolio. But having it be too large a percentage of net worth is likely poor risk management for most people, except perhaps younger, single investors with high risk tolerance.

BTC has been in a bear market, down over 50% from ATH to local lows. I won’t speculate on whether the bottom is in. But due to many reasons, it does seem likely the low occurs this year, and that this is a good time for people without exposure to begin building a position. Buy fear, sell exuberance.

However, until the quantum issue is either resolved or clearly on a credible path toward resolution, I think there will be a persistent “quantum overhang.”

By that I mean upward price moves will be met with supply from long-term holders looking to de-risk. If BTC is 3% of your portfolio, you don’t worry about this. If it’s 50%, you do. That dynamic matters.

As someone who has previously believed Bitcoin might be the best publicly available investment, I’ll say this:

It’s still great. But this overhang does matter.

Bitcoin has always been risky, but it also offered the potential for massive upside even over shorter timeframes. I still think the long-term upside is enormous, potentially 50-100x over 20-30 years (not calling that the base case, but a bull case - read my article for further discussion there) when you factor in gold, other TAMs, and inflation.

But in the shorter to medium term, until the quantum issue is further resolved, I do think upside volatility is somewhat capped.

And in an environment with many compelling opportunities: AI, robotics, space, energy, just to name a few, there is less need to be overexposed.

You might ask me now, Brian, why not wait until after this has been resolved?
And that's a great question. Markets are not perfectly efficient, but they aren't bad. Let's say this is resolved in 3 years by April of 2029, and BTC now runs smoothly and quantum-proof. Everyone who can access their coins can move them, etc...
BTC will be much higher than 70k. It will be much higher than the current ATH of 126k. You will have to pay for this certainty.
Always trade-offs. And that's why we have markets.

tl;dr

BTC is still a worthy investment and belongs in a portfolio due to its high-risk, high-EV profile.

But it shouldn’t be an outsized position for most people unless they are actively managing it.

With this year likely marking a bear market bottom, and with the quantum overhang still present, it’s a good time to add exposure, but not something that needs to be rushed.

Those are my thoughts fam.

[Will @btcmma]

@Sdavies22 Does the win mean you’re pretty much free rolling this series?

[Will @btcmma]

@xxl23 Transportation has also become much easier and they don’t need to drive

[Will @btcmma]

@JesseLonis I quit 6 months ago and my life and mindset is significantly better. 10 days is a great start but you’ll feel even better after you hit a few months clean