The US is fucked... they can't fight inflation.
What enabled Volcker to kill inflation by hiking rates aggressively was debt-to-GDP being at just ~30%.
Today, we are at over 100% and running $2T deficits...
This means all that rate hikes accomplish is increasing the deficit and thereby increasing inflationary pressures.
In other words, it doesn't matter whether we get a hike or a cut... the result will be inflation.
The reason debt to GDP was so low during the Volcker era was because the US had inflated the debt away after WWII.
I expect history to rhyme.
We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.
@Ben__Rickert I have a hard time believing they won’t print their asses off trying to save themselves. Those with reasonable amounts of fiat-based debt will likely see those balances erode thanks to inflation.
We were all fated to be born here, during these troubled times. It is a privilege to be up against such forces, and an honor to take on the challenge. Take heart and do not despair, you were literally born for this.
NEVER DOOM.
"with their ceaseless promotion of mass migration, these globalists are actively destroying the greatest cultures and most extraordinary heritage
there's no human right to illegal immigration, but there is a right to remain a sovereign nation"
@PrepperJournals At the risk of sounding stupid, why don’t they just raise their prices? If fuel costs more, why don’t these companies pay more to ship the items and pass those costs onto the customer? Surely that’s better than not shipping anything?
It's time to think about the 2028 halving and what it could mean for BTC price.
As of now, only 1.6 years until the next halving. After prior halvings:
- 2012: ~100x rally over 12 months
- 2016: ~30x rally over 18 months
- 2020: ~8x rally over 18 months
The halving has been the quadrennial heartbeat of Bitcoin's marketing and monetization.
But in 2024, something different happened. The pattern of halving --> bull market was already established enough that people front-ran the halving. For the first time, we had a new all-time-high before the halving.
- 2024: ~4x in 18 months BEFORE halving, ~2x rally over 18 months after halving
So what will happen this cycle? Nobody really knows, but I think the precedent has been established to front-run the halving. That's the game theory now.
If the same pattern plays out this cycle, the next 1.6 years could be the most explosive time for BTC. Repeating the prior cycle would look like:
- 4x over 1.6 years: $58k (recent bottom) --> $232k at April 2028 halving
- 2x over 18 months after halving: $232k --> $464k in 2H 2029
BTC could certainly deliver diminishing returns vs the prior cycle (as it has tended to do), but at some point that trend breaks to the upside.
The key point for now is that people are likely to front-run the halving. And that could make the next 1.6 years the most exciting part of this Bitcoin cycle.
@EnergyUp_ Or, could it be that families that can afford a pool and/or lessons can also afford the other resources and/or have the time to push their kids academically? I highly doubt swimming itself makes you smarter as a young child.
The insanity defense should not exist…
If you are so insane or mentally ill that you can’t be held criminally liable for your actions, you should be locked up to begin with.
one of the best signs of intelligence is definitive range.
e.g. someone who can have a deeply serious intellectual convo & then immediately make a fart joke or say something completely regarded.
you rarely ever encounter ppl who can effortlessly move between profound shit & the absurd. this is why the south park guys are geniuses.
If postpartum mental illness becomes a get-out-of-jail-free card for murdering your children, then by logic, anyone diagnosed with it should lose custody of their kids.