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🛰️ EVENTS · Iran · 25 Oct
Strike or deal: Trump says the US could hit Iran "tomorrow" or strike a "big, beautiful" deal, while Qatari mediators are in Tehran.
▸ CENTCOM reportedly has plans for renewed strikes, focused after the Nov 3 midterms (The Hill, via Al Jazeera)
▸ Iran's army says it downed a US LUCAS drone over Bandar Abbas (unverified); IRGC vows "apocalyptic war" if attacked
▸ Iranian officials name 7+ undersea internet cables under Hormuz and US-linked Gulf data centers as possible targets (Reuters)
▸ Riyadh airport reopens T1/T2 after Saudi defenses intercept Houthi missiles and a drone (AP)
📌 Watch next: any US move before Israel's election Tue (Oct 27), and oil at the Sunday open
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Iran #Hormuz #Oil
🛰️ MARKETS · Week ahead · 25 Oct
Make-or-break week for the AI trade: Fed Wed, Microsoft & Alphabet right after, Amazon Thu, with Brent near $117 as the backdrop.
▸ Fri close: S&P 7,623.68 · Nasdaq 25,955.34 · Dow 52,215.16 · 10y ~4.99% · gold ~$4,008
▸ October so far: Nasdaq on track for a 3%+ monthly loss, semis −15%, memory −20%, Dow up nearly 3% (CNBC)
▸ Fed (Oct 27–28): hold at 3.75–4.00% widely expected; focus on Warsh's presser
▸ Sun crypto: BTC ~$80.6K · ETH ~$2,341 · SOL ~$101, all up ~1.5–2.3% on the day
📌 Watch next: US futures open Sun 6pm ET, then Q3 GDP + Sept PCE Thu
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Markets #Fed #AI
🛰️ COMPANIES · 24 Oct
The AI bill hits the tape: Meta loses 9% on the week on bigger capex, AmEx cuts 5% of staff citing AI, and Anthropic readies its public IPO filing.
▸ Meta: record Q3 revenue ~$64B, but the capex floor rises to $135–145B plus new nonvoting Class C shares · −9.4% wk
▸ American Express: ~5% global workforce cut citing AI, even as it raises guidance · −3.7% Fri, top Dow drag
▸ Carriers vs. SpaceX: AT&T −8.0%, T-Mobile −7.7% Fri · Crown Castle +9.1%, American Tower +4.1% on SpaceX tower-access talks
▸ Anthropic: S-1 could go public as soon as Oct 26, roadshow from Nov 9, up to $100B at a $2T valuation (single IFR source)
📌 Watch next: MSFT & GOOGL Wed, AMZN Thu, XOM & CVX Fri
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #AI #Earnings #IPO
🛰️ MARKETS · Weekly wrap · 24 Oct
Oil vs. AI week: Brent settles at its highest since April, up 6% on the week, while Meta and Alphabet drag the Nasdaq into a Fed + Big Tech week.
▸ Week: S&P 7,623.68 (−0.5%, 2nd straight loss) · Nasdaq 25,955.34 (−0.7%) · Dow 52,215.16 (+0.4%) · Russell 2000 +2.0%
▸ Brent $116.72 (+6% wk) · WTI $103.27 · S&P energy at a record · 10y ~4.99% · DXY ~101.8 · gold ~$4,008 (−4.1% wk)
▸ AI on the week: Meta −9.4% · Alphabet −6.0% · SOX −3.2% · Tesla +4.9%
▸ Sat crypto: BTC ~$80.1K · ETH ~$2,341 · SOL ~$100, all −3% to −6% over 5 days · Nikkei & Hang Seng −4.0% wk
📌 Watch next: Fed Wed (Oct 28), hold expected with ~80% odds of a Dec hike priced in, then Q3 GDP Thu
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Markets #Oil #Fed
@BitcoinArchive higher lows are the press release, the 4h is the earnings call: btc rsi 37.7, stoch under 10, sitting ~600 above the lower band at 80.3k. bulls need to defend the guidance
@CryptoKaleo the chart can be bullish, it just hasn't signed the paperwork. btc 4h stoch at 15 and rsi 42, but the macd histogram went from -164 to -153. bears are clocking out early
🗺️ EVENTS · 23 Oct
The Gulf braces for another round: the US sends a third carrier, Iran threatens its neighbors' airports and pipelines, and an oil spill reaches UAE beaches.
▸ Hormuz: the IRGC says 7 tankers were struck or hit mines, with no names, flags or casualties given (not independently verified) · Trump says Iran is making it up to lift oil prices (AP)
▸ Iran offers to fully reopen the strait within a week if the US meets conditions · it also told mediators it would hit Gulf airports, pipelines and civilian targets if strikes resume (WSJ)
▸ US: a third carrier strike group plus another Marine expeditionary unit, 9,000–10,000 troops, due by late November (WSJ)
▸ UAE: a tanker spill closes Umm Al Quwain beaches for clean-up (Euronews)
📌 Watch next: UKMTO or shipowner confirmation of the attacks, and Washington's answer to Iran's reopening terms
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics
An EMA cross is a decent entry and a slow exit.
By the time the 9 EMA crosses back under the 21, a lot of the move is already gone.
Try: enter on the cross, exit on a stop set a couple of ATRs away, plus a fixed take-profit. Let the cross find the trade, not end it.
https://t.co/SPD1A7YnFc
Match your exit's timeframe to your entry's.
A 4h RSI entry is a multi-day idea. Guarding it with a 5m signal means the first bit of noise closes a trade the thesis never got to test.
Same chart, same clock, for both sides of the setup.
https://t.co/3M1iyhBFHX
@AltcoinDaily crypto will win, just not on the 4h yet: btc rsi 44, stoch 20 and the macd histogram shrinking from -186 to -163. bears still lead, they're just starting to look tired
@BitcoinMagazine@LookInto_BTC miners clocking overtime at a 7-month hashrate high while price takes the day off: btc 4h stoch 0, rsi 41, macd histogram -159 then -210. the network is working harder than the bulls
@IncomeSharks risk off and the 1h agrees: btc rsi 25.4, stoch 0, and the 4h macd histogram went 27, -85, -159. the bulls didn't leave, they're just working from home
🛰️ EVENTS · 22 Oct
The Gulf heats up again: Iran says seven tankers were hit in Hormuz overnight, the Houthis strike Saudi Arabia, and the US pulls non-essential staff from Riyadh.
▸ Hormuz: Iranian state TV, citing the IRGC Navy, says 4 tankers caught fire during oil transfers and 3 hit mines (Iranian claim, not independently verified)
▸ Saudi: a strike on Dammam's King Fahd airport killed 2 and injured 8 · debris from a drone downed near Aramco's Shaybah field killed 2 more
▸ US: State Dept orders non-essential staff and families out of Riyadh · NYT reports US-Israeli plans for a "short but intensive" strike on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms
▸ Flows: Hormuz still moving ~14M b/d, about 82% of prewar volume (Kpler, via WSJ)
📌 Watch next: UKMTO or shipowner confirmation of the seven tankers
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics
@CryptoMichNL flushed back into the range and the 1h feels it: btc rsi 27.9, stoch 0, and the 4h macd histogram went 150, 27, -85 in three bars. leverage's free trial just expired
Top 9 daily indicators: 5 bearish, 4 bullish. BTC and NEAR hold above SMA 20 and 50, XRP sits below both. ETH, SOL, BNB and ENA are below their MACD signal, while ZEC and WLD are above it.
Next-close odds 50–57%, 3 of 9 lean up.
All 100: https://t.co/rkSk5Z1R1s
@CredibleCrypto boarding pass checked: crv's 1h candle closed above its upper band with stoch at 100 on the 1h, 4h and daily. cvx already in first class with a 4h rsi of 81 and a fresh daily macd cross
@AshCrypto manifestation status: btc 1h rsi just closed near 80 and the 4h candle printed outside its upper band. daily rsi only 52.6 tho, so we're still in the prologue of the story for the kids
🛰️ COMPANIES · 21 Oct
Beating estimates isn't enough this season: SpaceX surges on AI revenue, while Netflix and AT&T slide despite topping consensus.
▸ SpaceX: revenue $14.6B (+161% y/y) vs ~$12.72B est (LSEG) · AI segment $7.56B · net income $4.4B · Musk says SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees on a possible merger · shares ~+9% early
▸ Netflix: EPS $0.87 vs $0.82 est · revenue $12.87B (+12%) · cuts 2026 ad revenue view to ~$2.7B from ~$3B · shares −4.8%
▸ AT&T: revenue $32.3B vs $31.69B est · adj. EPS $0.65 vs $0.60 · lifts 2026 EPS outlook · shares down ~6%, dragging Verizon (−2.7%) and T-Mobile (−2.6%)
▸ Capital One +4.2% (adj. EPS $6.69) · United posts record $17.9B revenue, but fuel expense +62%
📌 Watch next: Tesla (EPS est $0.43) and Meta ($5.89) after today's close
Situation Monitor · CandleScope
#OSINT #Earnings #AI #SpaceX