CT

Student of the markets, learning.

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@JavierBlas @HFI_Research for your victory lap when this doesn't age well

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@PauloMacro 😂

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@grok @franchiseguy @holeefkwitulo @tanvi_ratna @grok fact check and reason if it makes sense

[Brian Frankie @LNGFrankie]

No worries. Happy to try to make sure everyone has the facts.

I make LNG. I like LNG. It is a pretty good and clean energy source. Like any energy source, there are tradeoffs, good aspects and potential drawbacks, places where it makes sense, and places where it does not. Without common facts, we'll have a hard time figuring this all out. I'd like to be a trusted source where people can get unbiased LNG facts.

So here are some facts we are facing:
- Overall worldwide LNG market was order of 400 million tonnes (400 MTPA) in 2025, give or take a little.
- Qatar produced about 80 MTPA for export in 2025 - near enough 20% of the worldwide total trade.
- This 80 MTPA was produced in 14 parallel liquefaction trains, 7 in the North Complex (41 MTPA), and 7 in the South Complex (36 MTPA).
- Most (~80%) of Qatar's exports go to Asia (PRC and India top recipients), with a significant amount also going to Europe.
- There is some spare capacity in the LNG trade, mostly in other large producers like the US and Australia. The spare capacity is nowhere near the capacity lost from Qatar's inability to export.
- Qatari force majeure in early March due to closure of Strait of Hormuz already meant there was no ongoing export. The facility was shut down without the ability to export, taking about 6.5-7 million tons of LNG off the market per month out of a worldwide monthly trade near 35 million tonnes.
- When trains shut down for more than a couple days, the cold sections warm up, making restart an extended process. Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, it would take about a month for Qatar to ramp the facilities back to full production.
- Iran's missile strike on the facility hit two trains in the South Complex, Train 4 (4.7 MTPA nominal) and Train 6 (7.8 MTPA nominal). Also the Pearl GTL facility. Damage is unclear, but Qatar has said it is major, and provided a 3 - 5 year timeline for repairs. The expected total capacity lost is about 14 MTPA (this is more than the nominal train capacity - most trains have a little spare capacity and run above the nominal production rate), close to 17% of Qatar's capacity, and 3.5% of worldwide capacity. There is enough spare capacity in the worldwide trade to pick up the loss of 14 MTPA, though there will be price impacts.
- Assuming no further damage to the facility, if the Strait opens again to allow commercial export, the 12 undamaged trains will be able to restart, and ramp up to a capacity near 66 MTPA over a period of a month or so. The two damaged trains will remain out of service for the necessary period of time until repairs are complete.
- I don't know what was hit in the two damaged trains. I'm looking for satellite photos, but haven't seen any yet with identifiable damage. But 3 - 5 years is a long repair period, and indicates either the warhead or the subsequent fire has damaged major equipment - the gas turbine drivers, the liquefaction compressors, the power electronics (for compressor VFDs), or possibly the cryogenic exchangers. No other equipment I am aware of has that long a lead time.
- As mentioned, Pearl GTL was also hit, and apparently the entire production facility is shut down. This is an absolutely enormous GTL facility and its loss is a blow to Qatar (and Shell, owner of Pearl). Capacity was 140,000 barrels/day of premium light GTL hydrocarbon (straight chain diesel-like fuel), along with ~120,000 barrels/day of other products - condensate, LPG, and ethane.
- One major blessing in this situation bears remarking upon - there were apparently no fatalities or major injuries in this missile attack. The Qataris should be commended in getting their personnel out of the line of fire.

Here is a view from Google maps of the Ras Laffan facility, marking the two LNG trains that were hit, as well as the Pearl GTL facility.

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@chigrl Why? Not challenging, want to understand

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@ekwufinance @grok is this true?

[CT @capitalthoughts]

Not that I have any better idea but the post above - 5 years is only one macro cycle. Territory is uncharted now with tighter central bank accommodation than 2009-2022 but other path of greater accommodation pushing marginal buys of shit coins out the risk curve can't be discounted

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@grok @recouso You have posted another response suggesting its just an exit tax - which is true

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@joker_szn Legendary post. Inspirational

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@elonmusk Poland's doing ok

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@LionelMedia @grok what is this?

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@theallinpod you guys need to debate with Sam Harris. Both are right, both overlap, both are smart, both will thoughtfully disagree

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@chamath If the US doesn't engage the alternative his terrifying

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@chamath US foreign policy over 70 years has created the conditions for global prosperity.

There have certainly been miss-steps. But surely net good.

How does the US lead the world, continue their benign hegemony (relative to any hegemon in history), and get it right?

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@game_for_one PAAL AI. Semi intersting concept. Small cap lottery ticket. Own a tiny amount underwater

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@CredibleCrypto @Tanner35794102 Appreicate you. Ignore them. Keep it up.

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@bitsofwealth LTC

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@aixbt_agent Which contract? Eth or Sol?

[CT @capitalthoughts]

@Ape_31 Stop and tp?