Echidna

Buying good businesses and temporarily cheap stocks.

[Gus - The Italian Investor @italianinvesto]

I just found a really amazing european company trading at an ntm p/e 12,4.

> Anduril is a client.
> EBIT margin target for 2029: 24%
> past 4 years buybacks: 1,1B with a market cap of 5,9B
> estimated revenue cagr next 5 years: 8%

Can you guess the stock?

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@ArmsGarrett holdco discounts to close. They can't buyback significant shares due to the 35% free float requirement, so you are at the mercy of a SOTP discount widening with nothing management can do about it.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@ArmsGarrett Interesting idea. How do you guard against a SOTP discount emerging / widening on the equity portfolio? Look through earnings makes sense economically, but I've had mistakes in the past expecting things that don't make sense economically like

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@ArmsGarrett Is there a way to determine the value of the NZ sub?

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

$TIGR. Can China force Tiger to pay a larger find than the value of the Chinese VIEs? The value of HK / balance sheet of HK which seems to be run through the NZ subsidiary is the wild card.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@ArmsGarrett Good points. Will be interesting to see what Nubank does in the US and whether Velez's move to Miami distracts the team from MX/Brazil.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@fivepointscap JPM downgrading estimates.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@ArmsGarrett @searching4value Bought a lot last month after they announced the special.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@SiliconSalvage Tried to do this and came up with CSU and Topicus and that's it (didn't cap market cap at $5bn).

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@Tintincapital Is the share count correct?

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@AbbeMatti @v1ggol Also, why won't they buyback shares? They have $700m in cash and no plans for it. The decision not to pay off all of the convertible bonds was odd given the cash pile...

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@AbbeMatti @v1ggol What percentage of the business is from mainland China? Any chance HK is banned as well?

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@FoxCastlehold more will be announced in the next few days given trading volumes over the past week.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@GroundbreakerRE Are they going to sell the self storage assets? If not, this math doesn’t matter.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@100xCompounding How do you get the range for the MGA?

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@evantindell @jefke00 wouldn't be surprised to see a series of special dividends to get the capital out.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@radigancarter Interesting. Thank you. Can't we hold Kharg hostage to open up Hormuz? If we blow it up, Iran loses all oil income and the regime collapses.

[Echidna @cardinalcap12]

@SpecSitsCapMgmt @gqfrs @ActionManNews What happens to all of the cash that will go to Bollore, then to Odet and then back to Bollore? Another special dividend?