GQFRS

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@mike98572986 Whats your % allocation to clearpoint if you dont mind sharing?

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$vty RBC analyst downgraded the stock with a price target of 180 pence. Does anyone have a realistic math scenario on how would this work out? Even with a haircut of 20% on their Land+WIP they would still be trading at over 60% tangible book value.

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@P_Remarks Dec 26 Delivery Hero $15 Puts selling for 3.2€ 27% returns on nominal exposure if they don't drop more than 4% in 9 months

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@jakeallen3 @ACapitalLP Who would buy baemin and enter a knife fight with Coupang? And how much do you think they could get for it?

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@CapitalObserver What are your thoughts on the exceptional dividend announced of 1.5€ per share?

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@ActionManNews @SpecSitsCapMgmt With bollore I have no clue, on one hand, NAV will not change between today and tomorrow, on the other, signals willingness to return excess cash to ALL shareholders, which should be welcomed by the market. Your thoughts?

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@jakeallen3 @ShmuelLon @Tintincapital @IBKR What are your thoughts on Iran war and how it might impact high value GCC customers (expats) who are responsible for almost all profits, probably a huge risk to short term numbers/cashflow and long term story if GCC Is deemed unsafe for high earners

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@SleepwellCap Agree on ST, but don't you think new competition will fade as they won't generate good IRRs, and moderate in the big3 thus reducing AR payouts (considering rational oligopoly). All the while legacy FCF grows and enables big3 to be the only option for superstars/timeless assets?

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@VARAndOrder What are your thoughts on it? Except for the prosus overhang and short term investments they'll be doing in 2026 to protect core, seems like a very good story going into 2027. We are likely at around 3x 27 EBITDA, and if they +- maintain share into 27 the story is highly derisked

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@abroninvestor You feel RR is better than Lagardere? Lagardere cheaper and buyout target, however not a pure play on travel. Is that it?

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@NStepmum You got your whole account liquidated?

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@PythiaR And labels only very modestly up. Do you see any opportunity there?

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@jakeallen3 Long term thesis is VB is an excelent capital allocator (BOL/ODET are fantastic performers L20/30Y), discount to NAV is the largest it has ever been, and large net Cash position allows to colapse the structure and buyout the minorities at a good premium

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

Current Portfolio:
29.4% $BOL.PA calls (Strikes 3 & 4.5)
24% $BFIT stock+short puts
14.7% $IWG
11.9% $DHER
9.1% $VTY.LN
5.1% $FRAS.LN
3% $CLPT
2.9% $WATR.L
-4.4% Cash

131% Long (31% short via SP500 C610 calls sold)

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@jakeallen3 No imminent catalysts. However if they Turn the buybacks on again thats a quick 20% gain until the 5.8 celling. No big downside due to the 65% discount to NAV & 35% NAV as NET Cash. About 60% of NAV is UMG, high quality asset that is recession proof and fairly valued

[GQFRS @gqfrs]

@ohcapideas Do you have any view on whether Exor or Bollore should have a similar discount or not? All things considered?

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% are based on total delta for +-20% stock moves when there are options involved, not notional amounts invested

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@RonaldEvers Whats wrong with the negative working capital? It's normal in this biz - a feature not a bug, also DHER integrated verticals exacerbates this.
They are spending $1.4Bs annualy in custmr acquisition (Vouchers+Marketing for custmr acq), are you confident they cannot generate FCF?