It's crazy how often the @bankofthailand is wrong.
Using an updated sample of manufacturing firms, the Manufacturing Production Index has been revised upwards from 2024 onwards. This will lead to upward revisions of GDP growth for 2024–2026, with an updated average of ~3%/year. Average headline inflation during this period will be ~1%/year and core inflation ~0.7%/year, amid weak labour market outcomes (elevated unemployment claims, relatively elevated unemployment rate, and low nominal wage growth).
This strongly suggests the economy is running below potential, and that potential growth exceeds 3%/year, even before a planned MPI revision that accounts for quality changes (which would reduce the GDP deflator and therefore boost reported growth further).
When reported growth hovered around 2.5%/year, the Bank of Thailand blamed structural/supply-side issues, but weak aggregate demand (≈ bad monetary policy) is now by far the likelier primary cause of the recent bad economic vibes.
I’m stealing @okaythenfuture’s line: Anon, are you ready for a world in which Thailand reports 4% GDP growth? You better be.