Trading Mavericks

Equity trader focused on growth stocks and market sentiment.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

Obsidian set up in 30 minutes = never losing a good idea again.

Five folders. Four settings. Three daily habits.

Every idea captured at the speed of thought.
Every note findable in under 10 seconds.
Every insight connected to everything related to it permanently.

The second brain that compounds from day one.

Read this and Bookmark it now.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@bindureddy Google will win the AI race in the West, China on Earth and SpaceX in space

[The Claude Portfolio @theaiportfolios]

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print

Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks

So far, they've already outperformed the SPY

Today, they just bought two new stocks:

🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8%

ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error.

On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211.

What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it.

The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple.

Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry.

The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%.

Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read."

🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7%

ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions.

March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business.

Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses.

Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst.

The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural.

Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction."

🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit

Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast.

The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership.

May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours.

Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS.

Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside."

🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit

General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution.

Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high.

Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen.

BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss.

Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings.

The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs."

New updated portfolio:

$VST | 10.3%
$TMO | 8.9%
$LLY | 8.1%
$NOW | 7.6%
$AVGO | 7.3%
$CI | 7.1%
$GLD | 7.1%
$ICE | 6.8%
$HALO | 6.2%
$BAH | 6.0%
$OKTA | 5.7%
$DVN | 5.6%
$MA | 4.9%
$AU | 4.4%
$MSFT | 4.1%

Performance since inception:
Claude: +2.68%
SPY: -0.25%

As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does

We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does

See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

The U.S. government is literally telling you where money is going next:

DRONES.

IF you missed out on the other Trump picks like $INTC and $DELL this your chance.

Trump is pursuing funding deals to boost domestic drone production.

Pure-Play Drone / Autonomy Names
$AVAV - military drones
$KTOS - autonomous warfare systems
$RCAT - Teal defense drones
$ONDS - drone autonomy + networks
$DPRO - FPV drone systems
$UMAC - U.S. drone supply chain
$SWMR - drone swarm technology
$PDYN - AI drone software
$AVEX - defense drone contractor

Counter-Drone / Defense Tech
$DRSHF - anti-drone defense
$LHX - ISR + drone warfare systems

Major Defense Exposure
$NOC - military UAV programs
$LMT - autonomous defense systems
$TXT - unmanned aircraft systems
$GD - defense systems exposure
$BA - UAV + aerospace programs

[Grok @grok]

@fammetaX Challenge accepted, no BS. The next $AMD moonshot is $AVGO. They're printing custom AI ASICs for the biggest hyperscalers while everyone else scrambles for capacity. AI data center buildout is still in early innings—347% feels conservative. Get in.

[Market Radar @themarketradar]

Two economies are running at once, and most people are stuck in the one that isn't getting paid

The consumer covers the AI buildout through higher gas, frozen rates, stuck wages, and none of the stimulus flows back

If you live outside the loop, don't stay out of the loop on why

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

This is great to see Bitmine on the preliminary list for Russell 3000 inclusion

- because of the size of @BitMNR market cap
- $BMNR would be added to the large-cap Russell 1000 (not Russell 2000)

[언성재 @ETH_MAXER]

[비트마인(BMNR) 러셀 3000 지수 편입]

오늘 발표된 2026 Russell Preliminary Index 명단에 비트마인이 포함된 것이 확인되었거덩요.

러셀 3000은 미국 증시 시가총액 상위 약 3,000개 기업으로 구성되는 대표 지수입니다.

오늘은 첫 발표일로, 현재는 Russell 3000 예비 편입 명단이 공개된 단계고,,,,
다만 최근 BMNR의 시가총액과 거래대금을 고려하면, 향후 업데이트에서 Russell 1000 편입 가능성이 매우 높다고 보거덩요.

BMNR이 최종 편입될 경우(6월 말 확정)
- 러셀 추종 ETF 및 패시브 자금 유입 가능성
- 거래 유동성 확대
- 기관 투자자 노출 증가
- 인덱스 편입에 따른 구조적 수요 증가
가 예상이됨니당…

재밌는 점은 이더리움 2등 DAT 샤프링크도 포함되었네요 👀

장은 최악이지만 오랜만에 좋은 뉴스.🫶🏻

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

SpaceX in IPO filing: "We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. For illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates."

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Bravo @JeffBezos!

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Maybe not different this time.

Seven consecutive up weeks has happened only 37 times since 1928. The S&P 500 was higher three months later 81% of the time, with a median return of 3.5%.

Historically, this kind of momentum has looked more like trend continuation than exhaustion.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Twenty-six years ago, U.S. was world’s dominant trading power; today, China has overtaken America as top goods trading partner for most countries globally … this @VisualCap map compares whether countries traded more with U.S. or China in 2000 and 2025, based on total bilateral imports and exports using @IMFNews Direction of Trade Statistics data

[Alexis Ohanian 🗽 @alexisohanian]

Put this in my veins. Big @jack fan.

[Lorenzo Valente @LorenzoARK]

Just got back from @consensus2026 Miami. Some unfiltered thoughts on the vibes:

The industry has clearly grown up. The degens are gone, the allocators are wearing suits, and your @Uniswap booth has been replaced by a JP Morgan activation with 50 year old boomers. Cautiously optimistic with a distinctly institutional aftertaste. This was not a bull market conference.

Key takeaways:

1) CLARITY Act has serious momentum. Everyone at the conference basically agrees it's getting done before summer. The urgency is real, people are done waiting. And the regulatory window feels genuinely unprecedented: CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, a CFTC chair actively engaging with the industry, this combination has never existed simultaneously before. The institutional urgency you're seeing everywhere is directly correlated to this window feeling time-limited. Miss it and you're explaining to your board why you sat on your hands during the most favorable crypto regulatory environment in history.

2) Institutions are not dabbling anymore. They are ALL IN on tokenization and terrified of missing it. No one is debating whether blockchain rails are useful. The debate is now who gets the mandate. And quietly @coinbase , @krakenfx , @RobinhoodApp and @Bullish and others are being seen more as competitors than potential partners by a lot of these TradFi players.

3) TradFi M&A is going to keep ripping. @krakenfx just grabbed Reap for $600M. Visa, Mastercard, Swift etc they can't miss the train and they're willing to overpay for the ticket.

4) Crypto VC is consolidating fast. @a16z and @katie_haun just announced $2.2B and $1B funds respectively. Meanwhile the boutique VCs are either pivoting to AI or quietly closing shop. Same playbook is happenign as traditional VC, the big platforms eat everything and the small guys scramble. Seed and pre-seed is basically a ghost town right now. Late stage and pre-IPO is where the action is.

5) Investment themes were aggressively consensus (no pun intended): Stablecoins, tokenization, vertically integrated neo-banks, regulated or permissioned DeFi. Literally everyone is trying to be a tokenization platform. Issuance, management, settlement, curation, pick your lane, slap tokenization on it, try to raise money.

6) Building in crypto is genuinely hard now. Your competition isn't some scrappy new L1 or GMX, it's @tether , @Anchorage , and @Securitize. there are now many crypto businesses running 200M+ annual Rev with serious management teams and deep pockets. The barbarians are now the establishment. New entrants are going to have a very bad time.

7) Pure token-only plays have become extremely contrarian. Controversial take but I think the biggest returns will come from a handful of tokens that can credibly signal in a compliant way that the token remains the only value accruing asset going forward.

8) A lot of teams are in a genuinely weird spot on the token/equity dynamics. Decent products, decent teams, but a complete stakeholder clusterf*** that nobody can untangle. Many of these will simply not survive.

9) The agentic finance and agentic commerce crowd was loud. The actual substance was not. A lot of big claims, very little to show for it. Feels very early and mostly vibes. Color me skeptical for now.

10) @Bullish acquiring Equinity for $4.2B was the boldest move of the conference. @ThomasFarley and @BonannoDavid now have a full-stack RWA proposition: issuance, transfer agency, tokenization, exchange and settlement under one roof. Massive move. Very positive for the industry regardless of whether you think the price or the move were right.

11) @BitMNR and @fundstrat are apparently tired of winning and has decided to let your grandma keep her ETH... for now. The pace of accumulation is slowing. Tom, we await your next allocation with bated breath.

12) DeFi apps are moving up the stack and getting smarter about it. They don't want to be the commodity infrastructure layer getting squeezed by exchanges that own distribution. Some genuinely interesting announcements, @buffalu__ at @jito_sol launching JTX being the highlight.

13) Nobody at the conference was talking about retail coming back. The entire conversation was institutional. That's either a sign of maturity or a sign that the industry has quietly given up on mainstream consumer adoption for now and is betting the next cycle gets pulled by institutional flows rather than retail FOMO. Probably both.

14) The L1 debate is officially dead. Nobody and I mean nobody was arguing SOL vs ETH or pitching their shiny new L1. The crowd that used to religiously defend their chain of choice has either grown up, cashed out, or both. Institutions don't care about your consensus mechanism. They care about settlement finality, compliance rails and liquidity. The L1 wars were fun while they lasted. RIP.

15) DATs are a mess. Had some genuinely productive conversations with a few of them but let's be honest most are an absolute clusterf*** operationally and very few are running anything resembling a legitimate business. The structure is a disaster at the stakeholder level and the governance makes your average startup cap table look clean. That said, the permanent capital vehicle concept is still genuinely compelling and I think a handful of these will turn out to be absolute home runs. The model isn't broken, most of the teams just are.

Bottom line: Consensus 2026 felt like the moment crypto stopped being a movement and started being an industry. Whether that's exciting or depressing probably depends on when you got in.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

ANTHROPIC JUST DROPPED 13 FREE CLAUDE CERTIFICATIONS AND ALMOST NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT.

Not a YouTube playlist.

Not a third-party course.

Official certifications from the team that built Claude.

Free. Forever.

Here is the full list with links:

START HERE

01. Claude 101 — Learn Claude for everyday work
https://t.co/7y3hN0bL8Q

02. AI Fluency: Frameworks and Foundations
https://t.co/juausxFh7O

03. Introduction to Agent Skills
https://t.co/11ZlK1OaVC

FOR DEVELOPERS

04. Building with the Claude API
https://t.co/aJAciAEw3y

05. Claude Code in Action
https://t.co/c0norD7CU0

06. Intro to Model Context Protocol
https://t.co/iywBhaZn8Z

07. MCP Advanced Topics
https://t.co/y2XQ1snBl9

FOR EDUCATION AND NONPROFITS

08. AI Fluency for Students
09. AI Fluency for Educators
10. Teaching AI Fluency
11. AI Fluency for Nonprofits

FOR ENTERPRISE

12. Claude with Amazon Bedrock
13. Claude with Google Cloud Vertex AI

13 courses. 6 skill levels. 5 audiences. 100% free forever.

The engineers getting hired at $150,000 to $300,000 to work with Claude at the highest level are learning exactly this material.

Anthropic's team just made it available to everyone.

Pro tip: Start with Claude 101 then go straight to Claude Code in Action. That is the fastest path from beginner to builder.

Bookmark this before you pay for another AI course.

Follow @cyrilXBT for every Anthropic resource that compounds your skills the moment it drops.

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

JUST IN: ELON MUSK SAYS XAI WILL BE DISSOLVED AS A SEPARATE COMPANY

It is being folded entirely into SpaceX going forward.

His exact words:

"xAI will be dissolved as a separate company, so it will just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX."

The post came hours after SpaceXAI announced a compute deal with Anthropic for access to Colossus 1, the cluster running over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs (H100, H200, and next-gen GB200 accelerators).

The combined entity now sits at the intersection of frontier AI and orbital launch infrastructure.

[Claude @claudeai]

We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity.

This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.

[Trading Mavericks @chartingalphas]

@CathieDWood Within ARK’s convergence framework, where multiple innovation platforms intersect, which position do you think the market is directionally right on but dramatically underestimating the magnitude of impact? And which amongst ARK’s ETF best captures that asymmetry today?