What #Strategy Needs to Cover the Underwater Position
The Gap at $60,200 BTC
Total obligations cost/BTC: $65,265
Cash cost basis/BTC : $75,651
Current BTC price : $60,200
Gap vs obligations : −$5,065/BTC
Gap vs cash cost : −$15,451/BTC
Total deficit (obligations) : −$4.3B
Total deficit (cash cost) : −$13.1B
Options to Close the Gap
Option 1
BTC Price Recovers (Do Nothing)
Target BTC Price Needed to Cover total obligations : $65,265 (+8.4% from $60,200)
Cover cash cost basis : $75,651 (+25.7% from $60,200)
Cover cash + break even on preferred at par : ~$80,000+
This is the easiest path but relies entirely on BTC rallying while $1.2B/year in dividends keep burning cash.
Option 2 :
Dilute via ATM (Issue More Shares)
To raise $4.3B to cover the obligations gap:
# At MSTR $96.37 they need to issue 44.6M new shares (12.5% dilution on 358M shares)
# But this lowers BTC per share and further pressures MSTR stock
# STRC is trading at $81.71 vs $100 par preferred ATM is effectively broken at current prices
Option 3 :
Reduce Obligations (Buy Back Debt/Preferred)
# Already did this in May: repurchased $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes at a discount ($1.38B cash for $1.5B face)
# Could repeat buying back preferred at $81.71 (STRC), $57.55 (STRK), $58.85 (STRD) would retire obligations at 18–42% discount to par
# Retiring $1B notional of STRD at $58.85 costs only $589M instant $411M gain on obligations
This is the highest ROI move right now
Option 4 :
Sell Bitcoin (Nuclear Option)
To raise $4.3B by selling BTC at $60,200
# Would need to sell ~71,430 BTC (8.4% of holdings)
This would crater BTC price further given Strategy is ~4% of supply
#Saylor has called selling BTC a last resort. CEO already sold a small amount in June as a “process test”
# Each BTC sold also reduces the treasury that backs all obligations
Option 5 :
Lower the Average Cost (Keep Buying)
If Strategy buys more BTC below its current $75,651 average:
BTC Bought at $60,200
New Average Cost for
1) 50,000 BTC ($3B) $74,000
2) 100,000 BTC ($6B) $72,500
3) 200,000 BTC ($12B) $69,800
This lowers the cash average but requires raising more capital which is hard when MSTR is down and STRC is broken below par.
The Core Dilemma
BTC falls → STRC falls below $100 par → Can't raise cheap preferred capital
→ Must use MSTR ATM (dilutive)
→ MSTR falls further
→ BTC per share drop→ Preferred looks riskier
→ Cycle repeats
The only clean exits are:
1) BTC rallies to $65,265+ obligations covered
2) BTC rallies to $75,651+ cash cost covered
3) Buy back preferred at deep discount while it trades at $57–82 shrinks the liability side cheaply
4) USD reserve ($1.4B) buys 14 months of dividend runway at $1.2B/year so there’s no immediate crisis, but the clock is ticking
@Strategy@MicroStrategy@saylor@PeterSchiff@goldman@WSJ@AshCrypto@Bitcoin@BitcoinMagazine@BitcoinArchive@business #bitcoin #mstr #strategy #saylor @cz_binance@Reuters@ReutersBiz@CoinMarketCap@coinbase
Oh, bless this timeline, it’s like watching a drunk uncle at a family reunion decide whether to light the fireworks or just yell about them.
Trump’s Iran policy has entered full Schrödinger’s Bomb mode: The strikes are both happening and not happening until the #TruthSocial post collapses the waveform.
Yesterday: “We’re hitting Iran VERY HARD tonight, folks beautiful bombs, the best bombs, tremendous!”
Then: “Actually, the Supreme Leader called me (he loves me, tremendous guy) and approved a DEAL, so I canceled the strikes. Peace in our time!”
Now the tweet drops the nuke of truth: He canceled the cancellation of the bombing he canceled.
It’s not foreign policy anymore, it’s performance art.
A one-man show titled Art of the Deal: Persian Remix, where every act ends with the audience checking their 401(k) because oil prices just did the cha-cha.
Markets: 🚀💥📉
#Ayatollah : “Bro, we didn’t agree to shit.”
#Trump: “Fake news, we have the best deals, believe me.”
The rest of us: Popcorn in one hand, passport in the other, wondering if this is how World War III gets announced via tweetstorm with more plot twists than a soap opera written by AI on @redbull
At this rate, by next week we’ll get: “I canceled the cancellation of the uncanceled cancellation. Tremendous!”
10/10 geopolitical comedy. No notes. Just pure, unfiltered clown world gold. 🤡💣🕳️
@MTPHereToHelp@MohitMGulati Just to let you know that Saddling is more safer in certain conditions than riding while sitting.
Sad that Saddling will be dead hereafter