chef energy

Stock analyst. Investor. Sharing trades but not advice
formerly @moatgoatz

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@shagbark_hick You either don’t understand finance or you’re being disingenuous.

The average mortgage in America is 4.4%.

The 30 year treasury bill is at about 5%

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@AgroNationalism @merchanttraderx Hickman is a bum. @isaacfrench_ is the real one

[Investor_NICK @Investor_NICK_]

Charlie Munger: "If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time. The problem is, few human beings have that kind of discipline".

Today’s Charlie Munger 200WK candidate. $ISRG

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@realEstateTrent You just described underwriting in a tweet. No one should be investing large sums without this basic understanding

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@fortworthchris Already happening with $GOOGL. Geothermal and nuclear are better options for data centers. Nat gas is being used simply because it’s faster to implement

https://t.co/rQRV2Uh6f8

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@GabGrowth I’ve been loading up. Best risk/reward on the market imo

Would add $NU to the list

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@realroseceline $FND has negative real returns over the past 10 years

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$YOU continues march up and to the right 🚀

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@ObedientBread Did you look at literally any metric other than share price?

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@Ashton_1nvests It’s $MDT

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@Nebraskangooner It’s art a whirl. Indeed Brewing is the hub

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$FND from $120 to $43 since this post

I exited my short position too early around $100

I think it’s fairly valued around today’s prices

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@DeepSailCapital $FND

Same store sales have multiple quarters down >9% yet the stock price has continued to climb.

[chef energy @chefnrg]

They aren’t dumb over there

$ENPH running like crazy. Up over 70% from the monthly low

Who would have guessed that a company renown for their electrification hardware would pivot to data centers?

🙋‍♂️

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$ENPH @Enphase

“AI DATA CENTERS”

SSAY IT

[chef energy @chefnrg]

Hilarious to me that @BillAckman is considered a thought leader of sorts in the investing world when he’s just out there buying big tech on the dips

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

As two of the largest forces in equity markets -- growing index ownership and increasing amounts of capital controlled by extremely short-term-oriented, leveraged, volatility-intolerant investors -- converge, we have found occasional opportunities to acquire some of the most dominant long-term compounding franchises at attractive valuations.

For example, we acquired Alphabet $GOOG when the stock declined substantially on the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, Amazon $AMZN in the weeks following Liberation Day, and $META more recently on the market's response to the company's unexpectedly large cap ex guidance and expenditures.

In our 13F which we will file later today, we will disclose a new position in Microsoft, a company we have followed for many years now offered at a highly compelling valuation. While $PSUS will not be filing a 13F tomorrow, it has also recently made $MFST a core holding.

Microsoft operates two of the most valuable franchises in enterprise technology, which account for approximately 70% of the company's overall profits: M365 and Azure.

M365, the company's productivity suite, is the dominant operating platform for knowledge work, with over 450 million workers using Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, and Teams on a daily basis.

Azure is the world's second-largest hyperscaler cloud platform and, like AWS in our Amazon investment, is a direct beneficiary of the multi-decade migration of enterprise IT workloads to the cloud, which is now further accelerated by surging demand for AI inference workloads.

Both M365 and Azure are underpinned by Microsoft's unparalleled enterprise distribution and the security, compliance, and identity infrastructure it has built and refined over decades.

Beyond these core franchises, Microsoft also owns a portfolio of other leading businesses, including LinkedIn (the world's largest professional network with 1.3 billion members), its gaming platform (Xbox and Activision Blizzard), and search and news advertising (Bing and the Edge browser).

We began building our position in MSFT in February following a meaningful share price decline after the company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results. We were able to establish our position at a valuation of 21 times forward earnings, broadly in line with the market multiple and well below Microsoft's trading average over the last few years.

Notably, MSFT's headline multiple does not reflect the value of Microsoft's approximately 27% economic interest in OpenAI, which would represent approximately $200 billion, or 7% of Microsoft's market capitalization, at OpenAI's most recent funding round valuation.

We believe Microsoft's recent share price decline has been principally driven by investor concerns around two key issues: i) the competitive positioning of M365 against increasingly capable AI lab offerings (notably Anthropic's Claude Cowork), and ii) the durability of Azure's growth, especially in light of Microsoft's evolving relationship with OpenAI.

In our view, investors underestimate the resilience of the M365 franchise given its deeply embedded role across enterprises and highly attractive price-value proposition. Unlike point software solutions, which may be vulnerable to disintermediation by better-performing AI alternatives, M365 is tightly integrated into the daily workflow of nearly every large enterprise and is supported by Microsoft's identity, security, compliance, and data governance infrastructure, which would be nearly impossible to replicate.

Attractive bundle economics further reinforce Microsoft's advantage, with monthly average revenue per user on the M365 suite at approximately $20, less than half of what customers would pay to purchase the underlying applications individually from different vendors.

Moreover, we are encouraged to see Microsoft prioritizing its R&D efforts and investment in Copilot, its own AI agent embedded across M365, with direct involvement from CEO Satya Nadella. We believe these efforts will translate into improved product velocity and greater customer adoption over time.

Alongside Copilot's rollout, the company has also begun shifting its pricing model from pure per-seat licensing to a hybrid model of seats plus metered consumption, which helps expand the company’s revenue opportunity as AI agents drive incremental usage that a seat-only structure would not capture. These initiatives should help sustain M365’s strong underlying growth momentum, which was already evident in the business unit’s 15% revenue growth (in constant currency) last quarter.

We believe concerns regarding Azure's growth trajectory are similarly misplaced, particularly in light of the franchise's exceptional recent performance. Azure revenue grew 39% in constant currency last quarter, with company guiding to modest acceleration through the second half of the year.

We view Microsoft's recent decision to restructure its OpenAI partnership not as a concession but as part of a deliberate pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture that better serves enterprise customers, who increasingly seek optionality across model providers.

Microsoft recently disclosed that over 10,000 enterprise customers have used more than one model on Azure Foundry, the company’s modular AI model marketplace. This model-agnostic approach also strengthens Copilot, which can auto-route queries across multiple models to deliver the optimal output for a given task.

To support Azure's rapid growth amid persistent supply constraints, Microsoft has raised its calendar year 2026 capex budget to approximately $190 billion. Consistent with what we have observed at hyperscaler peers Amazon and Google, we view this spend as growth capex that should drive future revenue generation. This is particularly true for Microsoft, given that roughly two-thirds of its capex budget is allocated to server and networking equipment that correlates directly with near-term revenue.

Like our purchases of $GOOG, $AMZN, and $META, we believe that $MSFT offers analogous and compelling long-term value at today's valuation.

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$ENPh investors unite

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$FISV $PYPL

Trading like they are going bankrupt. I don’t see it

#fintech

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@Dmitriy_Grey_AI Yeah, mostly @fiscal_ai

[chef energy @chefnrg]

Still early on $ZBRA

Has some similar upside potential as $CGNX as an AI picks and shovels play but trades at 1/3 the valuation

[Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor @EmmanuelInvest]

🚨 $ZBRA (Zebra Technologies) Crushes Q1 & Raises Guidance — Stock +17%

Zebra delivered a strong beat and raised outlook:

- EPS: $4.75 (+18.2% YoY) → beat estimates by $0.49
- Revenue: $1.5B (+14.3% YoY) → beat $1.48B
- Adj. EBITDA: $347M (23.2% margin) → beat by 9%

Full-year 2026 EPS guidance raised — midpoint now $18.50 (was $18.10)

Solid execution in enterprise visibility, RFID, and warehouse automation. 🔥

#ZBRA #Earnings #TechStocks

[chef energy @chefnrg]

$ZBRA

Someone with a nice gain here. Around 100% with the June 220C now at 37-40. Low volume though. Only 17 today

[KASM @KASM_Capital]

$ZBRA $2.8M Calls BTO (Multi-Leg)

Trade:

6-18-26 $220 Calls | Size: 1,422

Vol/OI: 83.6x | IV 66% | Spot $221.21 | Fill $19.35

[chef energy @chefnrg]

@KASM_Capital Ballsy. Wonder if it’s a hedge?